Firas Maksad
@FirasMaksad · Think tanky a analytici – USA/Británie
Firas Maksad je výkonný ředitel Eurasia Group pro Blízký východ.
„Jednání o tomto víkendu už nejsou realistická, ale úsilí pokračuje,“ uvedli vysoce postavení představitelé. Není jasné, zda bylo zpoždění mediačních snah mezi USA a #Iran přímo ovlivněno dramatickým vývojem v #Yemen
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaNa stole je nový návrh příměří mezi Íránem a USA. Zprostředkovatelé se sejdou tento víkend. Překážky zůstávají reálné: politická roztříštěnost Íránu a Trump, který je na koni poté, co dostal přes Hormuz více ropy. Trump drží více karet — ale podzimní nedostatek rafinovaných ropných produktů by mohl převrátit stůl. Více s @BeckyCNN @EurasiaGroup
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaUS-Iran: stuck in a coercive stalemate till year-end. Expect flare-ups, not war. Iran keeps hitting shipping/US bases to extract a price; the US keeps countering to keep it open. Neither wants a real fight. But the clocks aren’t synced: → Iran’s exports are near zero under blockade. → US “shuttle service” is scaling fast. UAE oil exports back to pre-war levels. Saudi & others up significantly too. → Trump’s own clock speeds up by the Fall, when product shortages get harder to hide. Iran will feel more pain faster, but will it buckle? W/@jimsciutto @CNN @EurasiaGroup
30+ ships are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily. Iran knows its ability to weaponize the strait—and the economic pain it inflicts on the GCC—will diminish over time. The real risk is #Iran choosing escalation, not compromise, as Trump’s economic warfare bites. That’s why the GCC is racing to up defense and deterrence. 👇 https://t.co/CfaY2ErrHl
Economic warfare may be Trump’s most promising path against Iran—but it faces three big obstacles: China: Washington is unlikely to sanction Chinese entities before the Trump–Xi summit next month. Iran’s trade partners: Success requires UAE, Turkey, Iraq, Qatar and Oman to enforce the pressure. The UAE’s recent announcement is a significant step. Patience: Economic strangulation takes time. Lots of it—not exactly President Trump’s defining characteristic. More via @EleniGiokos @cnni @EurasiaGroup
… the governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are now united in their aggravation with the administration. Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory. “There has been frustration from the get-go,” said Firas Maksad, director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at the Eurasia Group. U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, he said, feel they were “unnecessarily entangled” in a war that Trump is now struggling to resolve. Maksad, who has extensive contacts within Gulf leadership, said Trump’s Iran policy is often described in the region as “erratic” and “unpredictable.” @washingtonpost @EurasiaGroup
Re-upping our map of the new Middle East alliances from January, with “Islamic Coalition” vs. “Abrahamic.” Focus on #Iran is short-term. Think bigger, longer-term, with implications beyond just defense. @EurasiaGroup @ForeignPolicy
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- Vance Says U.S. Will Not Talk to Iran Until Ship Attacks Stop
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- Bessent Says U.S. Economic Offensive Against Iran Begins at Dawn
- Bessent Says Iran’s Trading Partners Get Cure Period Before Secondary Sanctions
- China Says Cooperation With Iran Should Not Be Disrupted by U.S. Sanctions
- Rubio Tells Allies U.S. Is Shifting From Iran Strikes to Sanctions