Joe Kent
@joekent16jan19 · Veřejní intelektuálové, autoři a komentátoři
Joe Kent je vysloužilý příslušník zvláštních jednotek Green Berets a bývalý ředitel Národního protiteroristického centra.
Rychlý postup Húsíů je teprve začátkem zpětných dopadů, kterým nyní budeme čelit v důsledku naší kontraproduktivní politiky na Blízkém východě a kvůli této nesmyslné válce v Íránu. Schopnost Húsíů obsadit klíčová území a strategické přístavy podél pobřeží Rudého moře vypovídá nejen o jejich vojenských schopnostech, ale také o jejich schopnosti získat podporu kmenů daleko od tradičních bašt Húsíů v severním Jemenu. To je velmi významné — tyto kmeny jsou převážně sunnitské, zatímco Húsíové jsou zajdští šíité. Jemen je kmenový region — dohody mezi soupeři se často uzavírají před bitvami nebo během nich a i poté mohou být tato spojenectví nejasná. Nyní však Húsíové bojují po boku Íránských revolučních gard jako členové osy odporu proti Saúdům, USA a Izraeli. To jim přineslo mnohem větší podporu veřejnosti, než by kdy mohla přinést běžná kmenová dohoda nebo vojenské vítězství — ne proto, že by Jemenci podporovali Íránce nebo se o ně zvlášť zajímali, ale proto, že zejména v době konfliktu se řídíme kmenovou příslušností. Je to lidská přirozenost. Jemenci byli svědky toho, co Saúdové podporovaní USA udělali jejich lidu, a toho, co Izraelci podporovaní USA udělali obyvatelům Gazy, a vidí, jak Íránci oplácejí útok poté, co na ně zaútočily USA a Izrael. Nyní se sjednocují proti společnému nepříteli, aby se bránili. Válka USA v Íránu a jejich současná podpora válce Saúdů v Jemenu spolu s podporou naší vlády izraelské genocidě v Gaze výrazně posílily íránskou islámskou revoluci, která zasáhla mnohem dál než za hranice Íránu. Jak se naše válka proti Íránu protahuje, uvidíme toho více, zejména v Iráku, Libanonu a možná v Bahrajnu. Naše vlastní politika a intervence v zahraničí podporují radikalizaci, která následně podnítí terorismus jako odvetný úder zde v USA. Je to ničivý samooblizující se zmrzlinový kornout a kvůli němu zemře více lidí. Prezident Trump a jeho poradci to vědí a vědí, že ukončit nyní naše zahraniční angažmá je v nejlepším zájmu amerického lidu. Otázkou je, zda k tomu mají morální odvahu.
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaÚčelem každého systému je to, co dělá, ne to, za co se vydává. V současnosti je hlavní funkcí našich základen a vojáků v regionu poskytovat Íránu cíle, na které může střílet. Stažení našich vojáků Írán připraví o páku; pokud zůstanou, Írán si páku zachová.
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaNaše současná strategie, tedy údery na íránské lodě a vojenské cíle při uplatňování sankcí, spíše povede k události s masovými oběťmi, která nás donutí eskalovat, než k otevření SOH nebo přimění Íránu podřídit se naší vůli. Je to sisyfovská práce—Iran už 47 let dokazuje, že sankce dokáže snášet a bude je snášet, a od zahájení této války se nám vojenskou akcí nepodařilo vynutit si vítězství. S touto strategií je jedinou cestou vpřed eskalace. A přesně v to doufají jak neokonzervativci v USA, tak íránští jestřábi. POTUS naznačil, že si nepřeje, aby k tomu došlo, ale je také jasné, že nechce odejít bez „vítězství“. Vysvětleno mu však není, že čím déle necháváme naše vojáky a lodě v dosahu Íránců, tím větší riziko podstupujeme, že nakonec utrpíme další ztráty, což ho donutí rozšířit válku, z níž chce uniknout. Musíme znovu nastavit podmínky dohody stažením našich vojáků a lodí z regionu. Tím Íránu vezmeme možnost zatáhnout nás zpět. Teprve potom můžeme realisticky využít ekonomickou páku k otevření SOH, aniž bychom riskovali katastrofální eskalaci a rozšíření tohoto pošetilého konfliktu.
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaBecause we left our ships & troops in the region Iran has the ability to strike us in an effort to change the dynamics of the war to their advantage. We should deprive them of targets (our ships & troops) and funding. If our goal is to move from conflict to economic pressure, then our ships & troops within range of Iranian missiles give Iran the ability to move the conflict back to a kinetic war that keeps the flow of oil from SOH restricted— putting economic pressure on us, with the risk of U.S. casualties. We should remove our ships & bases now before Iran gets lucky & kills more Americans, sucking us back into a war of attrition. All our efforts should be on making the economic strategy effective or reentering the MOU to end the war.
Trump can will this into existence by pulling our troops out now, throwing them a massive victory parade & never mentioning Iran publicly again other than saying “it’s over, we won.” Then use quiet diplomacy & economic means to get the oil flowing through the SOH.
Our bases have become missile & drone magnets that we have to empty whenever conflict resumes—making them a strategic liability, not an asset. At this point, the true purpose of our troops in the Middle East is clearly to serve as human trip wires. They’re essentially bait, sitting as targets for the Iranians to shoot at so POTUS can then justify escalating the war. He is choosing to lock us into the escalation trap. Getting our troops safely out of Iran’s reach—now, before any more Americans get killed—increases our leverage by limiting Iran’s options, while preserving our most sacred resource: our sons & daughters in uniform. The issue is not whether our warriors are willing to fight—I know firsthand the calling, and I’ve witnessed countless embodiments of the warrior spirit & acts of immense sacrifice for love of country. To fight when called upon is the warriors’ duty, and they take it very seriously. But it is OUR duty to ensure they are only sent into harm’s way when it is in our vital national security interest. Using our troops as human trip wires is not in our vital national security interest. Get them out now.
We just struck targets on Lark Island, Iran will respond. If we want to control the escalation cycle & not have the war accelerate we must get our troops out of the region. If Iran gets lucky & kills U.S. troops we will be sucked back into the war on Iran’s terms. Troops out. Limit risk. Focus on economic pressure & diplomacy.
RIP Aaron Holleyman KIA 30 AUG 2004 taking the fight to the enemy, near Khutayiah, Iraq. Aaron was a true warrior & great friend to everyone he met. We went to the SFQC together & signed into 5th grp together, Aaron was a great dude. DOL brother. We will never forget you. https://t.co/JQpTZR3Uy7
The neocons are trying to normalize the concept of using a nuclear weapon in Iran. And as neocons always do, they are not even considering the 2nd & 3rd order effects of destructive ideas they advocate for.
We are teetering at the edge of major escalations in both our war against Iran and our proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. An unanticipated event could easily spark a major incident that would have catastrophic consequences for our nation & the world. The tragedy of both these conflicts is that neither was necessary nor embarked upon for the sake of our national interest. Instead, the deeper we get sucked into chaos, the clearer it becomes that foreign lobbies & defense contractors have effectively captured our leaders, while the needs & wellbeing of the American people are flagrantly dismissed. Right now, we have an ever-shrinking window of opportunity to end both conflicts, but it will take aggressive diplomacy and an honest & unapologetic revision of our own national security apparatus to achieve it. In the Middle East, the Israelis remain dominant in driving our operations & policies. In Ukraine, our own intelligence & defense establishment created a behemoth to absorb all of the funding & career development that had previously flourished for them on the battlefields of the GWOT. Ending the Israeli influence & military/intel industrial complex’s grip on our policy—at every level—is the fight we must have right now if we are going to avert disaster. President Trump needs to look at who he’s surrounded by—who he’s taking advice from, who got him into these messes—and make major changes now, before it’s too late. I discussed all of this with Tucker:
Fighting WWII was in our vital national security interest. Russia views their war in Ukraine as being in their vital national security interest. Fighting Iran may be in Israel’s vital national security interest, but America fighting Iran for Israel isn’t in our vital national security interest.
By signaling to Iran that we won’t strike them until after the midterms while simultaneously increasing sanctions on them, we’re essentially begging them to hit us so we have a justification for returning to the unpopular war. The purpose of a system is what it does. Pull our troops & ships from the region and focus on economic pressure. Stop gambling with American lives— escape the escalation trap.
These all sound like Iranian problems, we should focus on American problems. We should retract our failing empire to save our beloved Republic. https://t.co/rR6sQ6yNTo
If the purpose of the “economic D-Day” is to shift the conflict from one of kinetic pressure to one of economic pressure, then our troops & ships remaining in the region simply present opportunities for the Iranians to strike and drag us back into the kinetic phase. They’re sitting ducks. The Iranians & Houthis have demonstrated that they have the capability to hit our ships. Unlike our bases, personnel can’t be evacuated from the ships—any successful hit will likely result in a mass casualty event that gets more troops killed and subsequently pulls us back into the escalation trap. Israeli surrogates like FDD and other neocon advocates for the “economic D-Day” & the blockade are keenly aware of this risk, and still they press on, encouraging action that will drag the U.S. back into the war they want. The real power potential of this “economic D-Day” lies in the secondary sanctions imposed on nations doing business with Iran, because it means the most potent part of the operation requires zero military assets—which is why we should deprive Iran of the opportunity to shift the war back into a phase that favors their capabilities. The goal needs to be ending the kinetic phase—to control this we need to get our troops & ships out of the region. I personally don’t think sanctions work at this point & ultimately harm our status as the world’s reserve currency holder— but sanctions are better than getting sucked further into this disastrous war.
The Iranians will likely respond to the sanctions by attacking our bases and/or ships in the region. The Iranian hardliners prefer a military conflict because they believe striking us is their only true deterrent & a kinetic war keeps their people rallied around the regime. We should deprive them of this option by pulling our troops from the region. Pulling our troops out limits our risk & provides the sanctions the time to have their desired effect. This will also allow President Trump to say he won the military fight, now it’s all economic/diplomatic and the war can slowly fade from the daily news cycle. Once that happens a quiet arrangement can be made to get the oil flowing from the SOH ahead of the elections in November. But the sanctions won’t work if we get sucked back into an escalation cycle— break the escalation trap by pulling our troops out.
To effectively implement President Trump’s economic campaign, we need to get our troops out of the Middle East—now. We’re seeing indications that President Trump’s plan could ultimately work—if the reported statements from President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf reflect the regime’s views, POTUS is on the right track. Their candor in expressing concerns about the impact that economic warfare will have on the Iranian people is significant, as is their pushing for more negotiations and, if not a deal, at least a return to the MOU. Conversely, the IRGC hardliners argue that there is no deal to be had with us, and instead the only path forward is some form of escalation against the U.S. By removing our troops, we deprive the hardliners of that counterargument—it effectively deprives them of targets and forces them to the negotiating table or back to the MOU. We should seize this opportunity immediately—before a missile or drone hits our troops & restarts the escalation cycle. We have to be lucky every time. Our enemy only has to be lucky once. Once our troops are out of harm’s way, we have the upper hand. We can then use sanctions relief & the unfreezing of Iranian assets as leverage to get the SOH open.
Související články
- White House Says Iran Naval Blockade and Economic Pressure Remain in Force
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- U.S. Sanctions 36 Targets Supporting Iran’s Aviation Sector
- Iranian Command Threatens Harsher Strikes on U.S. Warships if Blockade Continues
- CENTCOM Says U.S. Cleared Iranian Mines From Strait of Hormuz Lanes
- Iran Security Chief Threatens Netanyahu, Ties Hormuz Reopening to War End
- U.S. Officials Say 20-30 Tankers Cross Hormuz Nightly Under Military Cover
- IRGC Navy Claims Complete Control of Strait of Hormuz
- Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at Two U.S. Bases in Jordan
- Jordan Says Eight Missiles Destroyed After Iran Targeted U.S. Bases
- Trump Vows U.S. Will Hit Iran Hard After Jordan Missile Attack
- U.S.-Israel War With Iran Reaches Six-Month Mark