Rory Johnston
@Rory_Johnston · Energetika, ekonomika a lodní doprava
Rory Johnston je výzkumník ropného trhu a bývalý bankovní ekonom.
No teda, to by do značné míry vysvětlovalo dnešní raketový růst cen ropy! Zvlášť když se to příhodně spojilo s vydáním měsíční zprávy OPEC o trhu s ropou (MOMR), která ukázala, že uvedený konflikt srazil saúdskou těžbu ropy na nejnižší úroveň od roku 1990.
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaAle zdaleka nejzajímavějším údajem v této zprávě je přímá komunikace ze Saúdské Arábie ukrytá v poznámce pod čarou—saúdská **produkce** ropy se během srpna propadla na nejnižší úroveň od roku 1990. „Oficiální“ čísla odrážejí „dodávky Saúdské Arábie na trh“, ale Rijád také uvedl (viz zvýraznění níže), že skutečná produkce se od července do srpna propadla o 1 897 kbpd na 6 238 kbpd, protože námořní zákaz Húsíů zkomplikoval přesměrování saúdské logistiky a útoky zasáhly infrastrukturu.
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaNa jedné straně by bylo divné ukončit válku hned poté, co pominula politická propast, o níž mnozí předpokládali, že ho donutí jednat, zatímco na druhé straně by dávalo mnohem větší smysl, kdyby Trump už nějakou dobu chtěl naštvaně odejít a uzavřít s Teheránem politicky nepopulární dohodu
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinai když to oceňuji — zvláště během krize v Hormuzském průlivu — ropa a crack spready se obecně pohybovaly společně, je opravdu důležité, že tomu tak být nemusí a že ropa a nafta jsou různé komodity — snadno si lze představit svět s ropou za 60 dolarů a crack spready na naftu za 100 dolarů
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaWashington právě potopil hromadu íránských tankerů u ostrova Chárg a Teherán právě kazetově bombardoval americkou základnu v Jordánsku.
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaBBG: „Z kotviště u íránského ostrova Chárg bylo slyšet několik výbuchů, informuje polooficiální tisková agentura Mehr s odvoláním na svého reportéra na ostrově“ Zatím neexistuje žádné oficiální vysvětlení. Cena ropy trochu vyskočila, ale
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaRe: the ongoing debate about how much oil is getting through Hormuz and whether a particular WH claim is “True”, so so so much comes down to charity of the claim treatment and tone/framing of the assessment. For example, a claim of 18 MMbbl over a given day can be an especially charitable clipped 24(ish) hour period—true in a tortured sense while misleading or cherry-picked. Or a really high non-specific number can be charitably interpreted to mean the full broader middle east (with reroutes) rather than Hormuz, specifically. Or a claim of 9 MMbpd when, say, only 6-7 MMbpd is confirmable can be both said to be “broadly” or “directionally” correct while at the same time being a “plausible exaggeration”. Or if that pace was only realized weeks after the claim it’s just “early.” This is all fine! But given both the obvious fogginess of the data and the acute political undercurrent to the topic, best if folks are specific. FWIW, I currently see Hormuz petroleum flows (crude + products) in the ballpark of 8 MMbpd**, with some of that representing re-displaced Saudi crude from the Red Sea. And based on my tracking I have generally judged White House Hormuz transits numbers are directionally correct, plausible, but cherry-picked and often meant to mislead (like Trump’s 18 MMbbl claim). **Chart below, highest I’ve confirmed thus far (with adjusted Kpler data) is just more than 8 MMbpd, with the current level lower but expected to be revised higher to roughly that same level.
Every time I get on a plane the US starts bombing Iran and I only find out when my phone reconnects to wifi. https://t.co/2K2penRe4O
UKMTO reports tanker struck by unknown projectile while transiting inbound through Hormuz. https://t.co/3dqVSf36xG
we're all still figuring out the new reality i'm personally working *a lot more* on China oil data than I am on OPEC math these days https://t.co/FoYfVwnDn3
Sure, why not BBG: “The Justice Department is preparing to activate a long-dormant maritime war court to streamline military capture of Iranian oil tankers as US prizes, according to three people familiar with the plans. Reviving prize courts, which is expected to face legal challenges, is intended to strengthen the blockade of Iran and offset the cost of the conflict.”
Rough week for crude thus far. You could be tempted to attribute this to the latest headlines on the Iran-Oman agreement or some other diplomatic development. I tend to think it makes more sense in the context of the rapidly rising tanker traffic indications—particularly Gulf loadings.
In the exaggerated rhetorical war, Washington’s claims now closer to reality than Tehran’s.
TOTAL Middle East oil loading is up slightly but still at less than half of pre-war levels thanks to the split fortunes of the Gulf and Red Sea. Gulf loadings have climbed back to ~7 MMbpd on a 10dma basis, up from ~5 MMbpd in early August and down from the ~10 MMbpd peak during the post-MOU breakout. This is directionally in line with White House claims. But, at the same time, Red Sea loadings have collapsed, with some of those Saudi flows having been rerouted back to the Gulf.
UKMTO reports two attacks today, one in Hormuz and one in the Red Sea Hormuz: "struck by an unknown projectile causing damage to the engine room and disabling the vessel" Red Sea: "63NM west of Yanbu .. struck by unknown projectile causing a fire to the vessel on the main deck" https://t.co/ybyU5QaJJU
These UKMTO reports now include what the US is claiming to be getting through—latest claim is 74 ships between August 20–22. Harder to translate that into a high confidence oil flow estimate without more detail. (Note: this is what the US is *claiming* to be getting through) https://t.co/I6uTzrtMJx
A “drop”, in standard terms, is 1/20 mL, implying roughly 3.18 million drops per barrel. Given that we know *at least* ~5 million barrels of oil per day is getting out of Hormuz, that implies roughly 15.9 trillion drops of crude getting out daily. Tehran has some work to do.
Was interesting to see this NYP piece cite UKMTO data, given that I had actually stopped using it because the data published in the table was routinely too low given missing/lagged dark transit IDs. Then I saw the lower chart, which lines up with the NYP’s cited estimates. Weird to see the inconsistency between the tables and chart, and then noticed this highlighted bit in the source notes: Data also includes “U.S. NCAGS data reflecting U.S.-facilitated Strait of Hormuz transits only”—so the very low table confirmed numbers are simply being supplemented by whatever numbers Washington provides?
Still seeing a LOT of this, folks. There’s good reason to be skeptical of White House Hormuz transit numbers But pushing back by saying “tanker tracking estimates for today/yesterday only show 1-2 ships” is a bad argument because as anyone who works with this data knows dark transit decisions come with a lag. Those confirmed Hormuz transits also regularly miss ~2 MMbpd of dark shuttle activity, which we add in on top of confirmed Hormuz crossings with an estimate using orphan ship-to-ship transfer loadings in the Gulf of Oman.
The thing is that if the White House’s Hormuz transit numbers are correct it won’t take long to confirm with imports at the other end—still not seeing it yet. note: they’ve now said 9, then 10, and most recently 8 MMbpd (7dma) is crossing Hormuz, so choose whichever you’d like!
The thing is that if the Trump admin cant keep jawboning with “the war is over!” every other day it makes sense to switch it up to daily torqued and unverifiable proclamations about the huge gobs of oil that you’re smuggling out of the Gulf.
Bonus question: how much Saudi crude does the US Navy currently see transiting the Bab el-Mandeb? I’m all ears!
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ ⛽️🚀 Crude prices continued to climb amidst diminished US-Iran diplomatic hopes, while sustained diesel crack spreads hit all-time highs as US distillate stocks hit three-decade lows for this time of year. Summary below, full report in reply. https://t.co/uOtH97pB9b
East of the Bab el-Mandeb is the new East of Suez.
Související články
- Republican Strategists Say Iran War Is Hurting Trump’s Midterm Campaign
- Jordan Intercepts 18 of 20 Iranian Missiles in Renewed Attack
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Tankers After New Missile Attempt on Navy Warship
- Hormuz Oil Flow Hits War-Era High of 17 Million Barrels, Wright Says
- U.S. Forces Begin Striking IRGC Targets in Iran After Attempted Attacks
- UKMTO Confirms Tanker Hit by Projectile in Hormuz, Crew Safe
- U.S. Forces Redirect 68 Commercial Ships Under Iran Blockade
- Iran and Oman Propose Joint Hormuz Corridor and Mine-Clearing Project
- U.S. Runs Covert Hormuz Tanker Corridor Moving 10 Million Barrels of Oil a Day
- U.S.-Iran War Memorandum Lapses Without a Deal as Tehran Denies Extension Talks
- Kushner Says US-Iran Talks Are More Robust Than Ever but No Understanding Reached
- Trump Says No Talks With Iran Are Under Way or Scheduled and Calls Hormuz Open