Sasan
@eghtesadnia · Think tanky a analytici – USA/Británie
Sasan je íránský komentátor mezinárodních vztahů vystupující pod pseudonymem.
Všechno nejlepší k narozeninám, Bašáre al-Asade
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaJeště zajímavější je, že doktor Araghchi znovu hovořil s pákistánským polním maršálem Asimem Munirem... Oba projednali nejnovější regionální vývoj a vyměnili si názory na vyostřování napětí a nárůst nejistoty v regionu a jeho důsledky pro regionální mír a stabilitu... Doktor Araghchi a polní maršál Asim Munir znovu zdůraznili význam ostražitosti a koordinace mezi zeměmi regionu v souvislosti se současným vývojem a zdůraznili využití "sdílených kapacit" k pomoci při nastolení udržitelného míru a bezpečnosti v regionu...
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaJe zajímavé, že doktor Araghči dnes telefonicky hovořil se saúdským ministrem zahraničí Fajsalem bin Farhánem Al Saúdem... Oba diskutovali o nejnovějším regionálním vývoji a vyměnili si názory, včetně napětí v Hormuzském průlivu a zejména v Jemenu... Doktor Araghči i jeho saúdský protějšek zdůraznili potřebu pokračující spolupráce, koordinace a diplomatického úsilí, aby zabránili šíření napětí a obnovili stabilitu a bezpečnost v regionu...
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaMohsen Rezaei, tajemník Nejvyšší rady národní bezpečnosti Íránu, znovu varuje, že zpolitizované kroky MAAE mohou přimět Írán k vystoupení z NPT
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaTohle bylo docela zajímavé, zvlášť když to zaznělo od Mohammad Bagher Ghalibafa (který je také hlavním íránským vyjednavačem)... Zřejmě se domnívá, že ve snaze snížit ceny ropy mohou USA vypustit falešnou zprávu, že probíhají „mírové rozhovory“, a poté vyslat diplomatické vyslance (Steve a Jared)...
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaZnamená to, že jsem letěl na palubě nového Pezeshkiana letectva?
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaPOČKEJTE... PRÁVĚ JSEM ZJISTIL(A), ŽE TOHLE BYLO EP-APA SPOLEČNOSTI ASEMAN AIRLINES Před pár lety jsem tímto letadlem letěl(a) do Istanbulu
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaPořád mi chybí letectvo Pezeškiján a letectvo Aragčí
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaPoté, co byl předchozí Airbus A340 íránské vlády (EP-IGA) zničen při americko-izraelském útoku... Írán podle všeho získal nový Airbus A340 (registrovaný jako EP-IGI), který prošel testováním a jehož kabina byla překonfigurována na VIP uspořádání... Údajně je připravený a provozuschopný...
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaJestli demokraté vyhrají volby v polovině volebního období… je dost možné, že Trump na ně svede, že válka proti Íránu neskončila
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaVe snaze ovlivnit veřejné mínění před volbami v polovině volebního období... zdá se, že Trump tvrdí, že válka s Íránem „skončí okamžitě po volbách“...
Přeloženo z jazyka angličtinaOne thing I personally found rather intriguing was when M. Gen. Rezaei said that Iran doesn’t sink violating American ships secretly crossing the Strait of Hormuz because they are carrying oil and sinking them would damage the region’s environment… 🥹🥹🥹 https://t.co/KI9av8TCqu
Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said some interesting stuff tonight... He says that the Americans must gain Iran's trust for negotiations to continue... adds that one of Iran's major issues with the Islamabad MoU was trusting the guarantees of the intermediaries in the negotiations... M. Gen. Rezaei says Iran is pursuing diplomacy with guarantees... "Iran will only commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the US neither threatens nor attacks Iran" He also reveals that Iran has been selling oil and has been getting the money back to Iran... M. Gen. Rezaei states that the claim that America's economic blockade is the cause of a 'major famine' in Iran is a huge lie... saying that Iran's government had been thinking and planning about this for quite a long time and has sufficient reserves of food and essential goods...
Rumour has it that a Qatari delegation is coming to Tehran for mediation to help de-escalate Iran-US's rising tensions 👀
This was pretty interesting... apparently Iran's Minister of Economy Dr. Madanizadeh has travelled to Moscow... He is set to follow up on several Iran-Russia economic agreements and hold bilateral (and multilateral) consultations... Negotiations with Russia's Minister of Finance and consultations within the framework of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation are on the agenda... Would be interesting to see how much of a role Russia (and other multilateral organisations like BRICS and SCO) could play in helping manage Iran's economic crisis...
Alot of interesting and noteworthy contacts taking place as tensions continue to rise in the region... We had Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaking with his Omani counterpart Badr Al Busaidi discussing the diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating Iran-US tensions... Then earlier this morning, Dr. Araghchi held separate calls with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, discussing the latest developments, specifically the tit-for-tat oil tanker strikes in the Persian Gulf, as well as the diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring regional stability... And then also Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaking with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to discuss the events that unfolded, with both parties stressing the need to resume implementation of the Islamabad MoU to prevent further regional escalation... I don't much of a diplomatic breakthrough ahead, but its interesting to note that all mediators are trying their best to prevent the Iran-US tensions from escalating any further...
No statement on this from the Iranian Foreign Ministry yet but still pretty noteworthy if true...
Iran's playing all the right cards of gradual escalation... By striking 6 ships after the US struck 3 Iran signals that moving forward, it would be responding with twice the magnitude...
Intrestingly, Dr. Araghchi's two favourite Badrs (Badr Al Busaidi and Badr Abdelatty) spoke on the phone today... Oman and Egypt's Foreign Ministers discussed the latest regional developments and the mediation efforts to de-escalate Iran-US tensions... https://t.co/1aSUtVcOi4
Right now neither Tehran nor Washington are so keen on diplomacy... and what seems clear is that these tit-for-tat attacks are bound to continue... The US is under the impression that its pressure campaign would subjugate Iran, and Iran's distrust towards the US is further cemented and it won't talk unless the US fulfils its commitments under the Islamabad MoU the two states signed... Pressure campaigns do not yield results when it comes to Iran... we have witnessed this time and time again... the best way to deal with Iran is through dialogue and diplomacy... Tehran's diplomatic options remain open... But Iran could be experimenting its military option of gradual escalation... I think if Iran's military escalation works out in pressuring Washington, we could have negotiations resume by late October... If not, Iran might escalate tensions further to ensure Republicans lose the upcoming midterms... My question however is that how much are countries (especially China and Russia) willing to aid the Iranian economy and nullify the effects of the sanctions...
While we're on the subject of Iranian tankers... I gotta say the emblem on the bows go hard 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/BbzKAluPw5
So Trump was serious about the whole Syria becoming a Hormuz alternative thing? 😂😂😂
So JD Vance said that the US is not talking to Iran unless they stop shooting at ships... And Iran won't stop shooting at ships till the US adheres to the commitments it agreed to under the Islamabad MoU...
The JD Vance press conference was honestly hilarious... and frankly left more questions than answers... JD only proved that the US is NOT winning this "war" on Iran...
In an interesting statement by Iran's Vice President Aref (funnily enough who is the key reformist in the Pezeshkian admin.) says that the Americans should start thinking about stockpiling fuel as "dark months" await the American economy... Aref states that the latest American attack has changed Iran's security equations and defense doctrine... Aref says that from now on Iran's response will be "asymmetrical", "multi-layered" and "depriving the aggressor of security"... It's no secret that Iran itself isn't doing so well economically either... unclear whether Iran has the funds to carry on this path or not... and a sudden escalation of the conflict has its own unpredictable risks... which I don't think rational Iran would like to try out... or at least not now... I think right now Iran is maintaining a good balance between its diplomatic and military options... though again, I am unsure how much longer Iran can carry on this trajectory as the long-term seems bleak... but the overall strategy remains attritional and focused on forcing US back to negotiating table via pressure... But the issue with Trump admin. is that there is no guarantee that they would abide by anything they sign... the Islamabad MoU being a prime example... so what would we be negotiating? In Iran's eyes, any new negotiations would now have to take place on the basis of conditions and frameworks on which Tehran insists... primarily the US returning its obligations under the core elements of the previous Islamabad MoU... Meanwhile, Trump is under the impression that his blockade and economic pressure is working... and isn't very keen on returning to the negotiating table... But many in Iran also speculate that when Trump says he does not need to negotiate with Iran, the reality is not the US displaying strength... but rather trying to hide the fact that Washington no longer has the sufficient leverage to impose its terms on Tehran in the negotiations... So like the "dark months ahead" statement Aref made, Iran is under the impression that oil prices, inflation, energy costs and the electoral impact in the US are in Iran’s favour... However, the main question remains that for how long is the Iranian population willing bare the pressure? But what seems clear is that this tit-for-tat strikes are bound to continue for quite some time...
Související články
- Mohsen Rezaei Says IAEA Moves Will Push Countries Out of NPT
- Republican Strategists Say Iran War Is Hurting Trump’s Midterm Campaign
- IRGC Claims It Attacked U.S. Unmanned Vessel Near Strait of Hormuz
- Iran Claims It Targeted Six Vessels After U.S. Tanker Strikes
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- Iranian Command Threatens Harsher Strikes on U.S. Warships if Blockade Continues
- Vance Says U.S. Will Not Talk to Iran Until Ship Attacks Stop
- Brent Crude Rises 1.3% to $95.91 as U.S.-Iran Fighting Intensifies
- White House Says Iran Naval Blockade and Economic Pressure Remain in Force