데니스 로스
@AmbDennisRoss · 싱크탱크 및 분석가 — 미국/영국
데니스 로스는 여러 미국 행정부에서 중동 평화협상가로 일한 워싱턴연구소 고문입니다.
Iran was bound to escalate, not give in, as it was squeezed. Instead of attacking Gulf oil sites,which would remove Trump’s reasons not to take out its energy, Iran has used its Iraqi proxies and its partner, the Houthis, to squeeze us. Does the Trump admin have an answer?
Iran continues to highly calibrate their military strikes even as they threaten offensive action. Trump continues the blockade and tightens the economic noose. At some point, I expect Iran to escalate but it might be coupled with a signal to the mediators to try to find a way out
Tit for tat again with Iran?Are we switching off policy of patience based on blockade/economic isolation or adding to it? Maybe POTUS believes we can stop Iran from threatening ships in the Strait and Iran lacks the means to threaten its neighbors.Hope he’s right, fear he’s not
Is the shooting war between the U.S. and Iran about to resume? Maybe, but yesterday the highly limited US strike and limited Iranian response showed that neither side wants that. Iran’s economy is collapsing and they have no good answers. Pres Trump now needs to be patient.
Pres Trump should anticipate that Iran will respond militarily against its neighbors if he is successful in adding significantly to the economic pressure already created by the blockade.They will respond to increased pressure with increased pressure. Hope he is prepared for that.
Iran is under pressure from the blockade and its economy is in freefall. But they have the leverage of the Straits, their ability to threaten the energy facilities of their neighbors, and know Pres Trump is desperate to end the war. Thus,their conditions to reopen the Straits.