후세인 압둘후세인
@hahussain · 싱크탱크 및 분석가 — 미국/영국
후세인 압둘후세인은 FDD 연구원이자 아랍 정치에 독자적 시각을 제시하는 분석가입니다.
Do you know how the Syrian government will deal with this? Populism! Regional bravado and hate against Israel, and boom! This is the story of Iran, Turkey, Egypt and even Saudi Arabia, a tactic that always works and never gets old. Populations will remain poor and backward.
احباط شديد وضيق يصبني سببه اعتقادي باستحالة خروج العرب من تخلفهم. صحيح ان العرب يقودون اكس خمسة ويحملون آيفون ويلبسون هيرميس، لكن مجتمعهم ما يزال قبليا جاهليا متخلفا، ومعه واقعهم السياسي. انظروا قبائل بني حشيش تستعد لغزو مأرب. العام الماضي، غزت عشائر العگيدات والجزيرة دروز السويداء، وحصل ذلك بعد ان بايعت قبائل سوريا الشيخ أبو محمد رئيسا إلى الأبد. إحباطي الأكبر سببه طبقة المثقفين. هم يعتقدون انفسهم من المتنورين ولكن طالعوا مقالاتهم وبياناتهم: التفكير والصياغة مثل المعلقات: بكاء على الأطلال، هجو الأعداء، مديح الظل العالي. ولا بيان او مقالة عربية تحدد الأهداف المطلوبة (رفع نسبة النمو الاقتصادي، خفض البطالة، جذب الاستثمارات، توسيع البنية التحتية، الاستثمار في رأس المال البشري) ثم تعدد الوسائل المطلوبة لتحقيق هذه الأهداف. أما الشعب العنيد فأشنع من مثقفي البلاط والقبائل. شعب يناقش في الشرف والكرامة ولا يفهم الحريات الفردية والمصالح واختلاف الرأي. يعتقد الاختلاف شتيمة ويرى صاحب الاختلاف مدفوعا بأهداف خبيثة وغالبة مدفوع الثمن. حضارة فاسدة تعكس تفكيرها الفاسد على كل أنواع النقاش. سأم، سقم، سقيم، عليل، يعلّ القلب والفكر والروح والوجدان. بالمناسبة: إسرائيل انتصرت على حزب الله وحققت أهدافها ومش فارقة معها إذا لبنان نزع سلاح حزب الله ووقع سلاما ام لا، لكن اللبنانيين يعتقدون انهم سواسية مع اسرائيل وأنها تنتظرهم او ان المجتمع الدولي قلق عليهم. جتكم خيبة. لا احد يهتم لهبلكم ومقاومتكم التافهة والوطن المسيحي الناجح الذي حوّلتموه إلى مزبلة إسلامية. ارجوكم وفروا علي موضوع الطائفية، يعني عرب بين بعض ودافنينه سوا ومنعرف انه الحي او القرية النظيفة والمرتبة مسيحية والمجوية والفوضوية مسلمة.
I’m going to sleep. I hope that by the time I wake up, I don’t read the news that the Houthis have taken Riyadh. Man the Houthis are pounding the Saudis at will, and the Saudis are taking all of it lying down.
In the 1960s, Egyptian President Gamal Abdul-Nasser invited the Soviet Union to build the Aswan Dam. This required the construction of the Nasser artificial lake, which in turn required the displacement of 70 villages in the Nuba region on both sides of the borders in Egypt and Sudan. Some 150,000 locals (20 percent of the total Palestinian displacement of 1948) were forced to leave their ancient, historic, ancestral land. Western countries relocated the ancient Pharaohic temples of this Halfa Valley. This was the correct call: Sacrificing the land of a community for the greater good of the nation. Aswan Dam has contributed an increase of three to four percent of Egyptian GDP since 1971 and has also indirectly benefited Sudan. Even though displaced, the improving economy at large, and the generated electricity and water management for the locals, has been a better choice than sticking to the "land of the ancestors" at any price. This can be the best example for Palestinians. Losing up to 20k SqKm to Israel and moving on, while signing peace that can boost the Palestinian and Arab participation in the global knowledge and services economy, is a much better policy than sustaining a bloody and impoverishing conflict that is holding back the economic growth of Palestinians and over 300 million Arabs who are holding back on normal, integrated, economics in the region, thinking this pressures Israel, when in reality they are pressuring themselves. People like me are not designed to recommend how to right wrongs but how to devise policies that help economies grow and standards of living rise. I understand that advising Arab surrender Palestine is emotionally torturing for many Arabs, but policy is about interests, not emotions. Cutting the sick limb (Palestine) and surviving is better than allowing the sickness of the limb spread through the body and kill it. To a friend on FB who asked me "how much do they rewarded you," ostensibly by Israel or the nefarious Zionist lobby, "to say what you say," my answer is this: Every waking hour of my adult life has been dedicated to improving the thinking and living standards of Arabs. Asking Arabs to live in refugee tents (whether in Gaza or in Lebanese refugee camps) indefinitely, because that's what honor demands, is the work of tribal court poets of old, not modern time human science experts.
In 1950, Iraq considered Jewish citizens "dual national" and stripped them of their Iraqi citizenship, issuing them single trip passports to a country of their choice (most of them moved to Israel) and stamping on their passports "not allowed to return to Iraq." Iraq never changed its law against dual nationality until the collapse of Saddam's regime in 2003. And you still get Arabs and Iraqis who insist that these Jews left of their own will and were never harassed or forced out. Israel understood the ejection of 750,000 Jews from Arab countries the equivalent of 750,000 Arabs who had left Israel (willfully or forcefully). Israel believed this was a population swap, just like India and Pakistan, around the same time, and Turkey and Greece, 25 years prior. The UN, however, turned the Arab relocation into a lucrative industry, managed by multi-billion dollar agencies over the span of eight decades, thus aborting the swap on the Palestinian side and keeping the conflict burning indefinitely.
اكثر مفارقة مضحكة في العالم هو عندما يردّ سعودي على فكرة، لا بدحضها، بل باتهام مطلقها بأنه مدفوع له. على أساس السعودية لا تدفع، وتعتمد على نتائج سياساتها الباهرة التي تثير اعجاب العالم. يقول المثال الشامي أن البصلة هزأت من الموزة وقالت لها ياعوجة، وبالانكليزية، سخرت الدلة من الابريق بأن النار تسببت بسواده.
Let me summarize Shadi’s dozen paragraphs: As an Arab intellectual who grew up in Gaza and knows it like the back of his hand, Alkhatib is practicing introspection because he wants practical solutions to help his Palestinian people. As an Arab intellectual who grew up in America, Hamid engages in US identity politics (blaming others for one’s own failure) and in antisemitism in blaming Israel for Palestinians ills. Like all anti Israel Americans, if Palestinians continue to live in tents for the coming millennium, it’ll never affect Shadi’s life.
My article in @ThisIsBeirut_: Tehran cannot stop Washington from striking targets inside Iran, let alone stop Jerusalem from militarily disarming Hezbollah in Lebanon. https://t.co/OTn0t4qqct
Pakistan turns down Saudi request to strike Houthis. Pakistan says the Mecca Pact of mutual defense “doesn’t cover a pre-existing condition,” so it only covers wars started after the pact was signed. It also covers only state actors, not non-state actors (and perhaps preferably those within reach of Pakistani power projection). Saudis won’t ask Turkey (the third partner in the Mecca Pact). If they did, Turks would happily deploy naval assets from their Somalia base. Turks itch to control Bab al-Mandab; a fight with the Houthis would give them an excuse. Saudis are not keen to replace Iranian occupation of Yemen and the strait with Turkey.
When Saudi and UAE were fighting together in Yemen, they pushed back Houthis, were about to take Hodeida Port and cut their naval access. Biden intervened to stop that, arguing port was last artery for humanitarian assistance (the usual Biden nonsense). In December, Saudi fighter jets hit Emirati allies in Yemen. The UAE pulled out. Since then, the Saudis have been taking a beating from the Houthis, and never using their fighter jets again (these seem to be reserved to use against friends only).
Flirting with peace with Israel can go so long. At one point, Aoun will have to deliver what he promised: Disarming of Hezbollah. If he doesn’t, more promises of “ending state of hostility” will become like the boy who cried wolf.
This is my sense too. Iran is too weak and bluffing. Iran is currently as strong as its supreme leader: A cardboard cutout.
Pakistan is 2600 km away from Yemen at shortest distance. Pakistan fighter jets have combat range of 1200 km max, extendable with refueling, but not tried much. Pakistan will have to take off from Saudi air bases, but then again, why not fly Saudi F16s, or why not the Saudis fly their F16s on Houthis?
Told @skynewsarabia that Prez Trump is clear that he's waiting for the Iranians to blink economically. Are Americans hurting because of the Iran war? Only slightly so and certainly not as disastrously as the Iranian population? Anchor: But Democrats say the war is unpopular because it doesn't serve American interests, is Israel's war... HA: It started with Israel and over nuclear and proxies. But where is Israel now? It's not part of the war anymore (neither bombing Iran nor Iran throwing missiles on Israel. Iran now strikes Kuwait and Gulf countries, not Israel). Wars tend to take a life of their own. No one expected this war to veer all the way to become one over tankers. Since the war started, it has metamorphosed into one for national US interests vs an Iran, and both sides seem to be improvising as they go and therefore, every week or so, the conflict takes a different shape and focuses on something else.
Civil wars take a life of their own. Warring parties rarely maintain the original lineup. In Sudan, the Aturu tribe, usually in the countryside in South Kordofan, has been moving closer to towns escaping the spreading aridity and in search of pasture. As a result, they came into clashes with one of the anti-government factions, in this case, SPLM-N (Helou). Sudan needs a deep, structural, plan, or else, it will remain lawless for a long time. https://t.co/Q81UFWXEnD
Facing criticism for sitting on its hands and not going after Hezbollah, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) said that ever since the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) pulled out of Western Zawtar, in south Lebanon, the LAF has "seized approximately 1,818 items of weaponry and ammunition, including: ten missile launchers, seven missiles, six drones, fifty-one rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), ten aerial bombs, and 1,560 rounds of light ammunition, in addition to a large number of mines and explosive devices." LAF usually posts statements (and on social media) on its confiscation of hunting rifles. Why did it wait until now to report on confiscation of the Hezbollah weaponry as reported in the post below? Whatever the reason is, if confiscation is true, we will all cheer on LAF for doing it.
Saudi Arabia relied heavily on Sudanese mercenaries for its war in Yemen. Riyadh has since taken sides in Sudan, siding with SAF against RSF. Now RSF is threatening to withdraw its 5,000 soldiers still stationed on Saudi territory (which pays RSF for them). https://t.co/P7ALnqMYH8
Factoid: Most Arabs call most Israelis settlers.
Islamic Iran fired missiles from 12 locations across Iran, targeting neighboring Arab countries. What else does Iran have? Missiles, drones, and what else? A country in ruins…
Join our panel on Lebanon, next week. https://t.co/7YR8M1MnW6
تدين؟ لا تتهور الله يخليك. على أساس تحالف مكة واعتداء على اي منكم اعتداء على الكل. صرنا ندين ونستنكر؟
When the UAE was only two years old, Israel had fended off three major Arab wars against its existence. When the UAE turned 9, Iraq and Iran fought a devastating 8-year war. When the UAE turned 20, Iraq invaded Kuwait. By the time the UAE turned 25, Qatar had witnessed at least three coups in which son or nephew dethroned father or uncle. Before the UAE had any economic or military presence in the region, the Middle East had already seen more wars in its history than any other spot on the planet. But an imperial Westerner thinks he can give lessons about the history of the region.
13.3 percent of Palestinians support Hamas. 49 percent of Muslim Americans support Hamas. Go figure!
Nick bashes the UAE for arming RSF in Sudan but praises Turkey that arms SAF in Sudan and calls Turkish policy "a path that can help end other conflicts." (Yeah, right) Nick attacks Trump admin for slamming sanctions on BOTH RSF and SAF, accusing BOTH of war crimes, while lobbying the UN to impose an arms embargo on both. Nick is clearly biased toward Islamists -- whether Hamas, Turkey, Qatar or elsewhere -- but insists that he stands on the highest mountain of ethics and morals.
Despite being 1,000 miles apart and in different time zones, Turkey and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) maintain a military partnership that operates in direct violation of a standing UN arms embargo. Turkish combat drones initially helped SAF reverse the tide of the civil war. However, by late summer, counter-momentum by rival forces erased those gains, forcing Sudanese Chief of Staff Yasir al-Atta to travel to Ankara to request expanded, urgent military assistance from his Turkish counterpart, Selcuk Bayraktaroglu. But what is Turkey doing intervening in Africa?