이브라힘 잘랄
@IbrahimJalalYE · 싱크탱크 및 분석가 — 미국/영국
이브라힘 잘랄은 예멘·걸프·역내 안보·초국경 위협을 다루는 연구자이자 정책고문입니다.
The reported Houthi withdrawal from Mayyun appears to be a tactical pullback under heavy fire inside the declared “kill box.” But as long as the Houthis retain key stretches of the Red Sea coast and strategic islands, they preserve the ability to threaten Bab al-Mandab shipping, enable illicit maritime networks, and impose sea-denial and coercive pressure. The withdrawal narrative may also serve a Houthi political purpose: reducing pressure for internationally backed measures to secure the strait and uphold freedom of navigation, particularly as Houthi messaging seeks to reassure shippers and states after launching more than 160 attacks on ships.
Yemen's western coast & Bab al-Mandab fell to the Houthis. Iran now holds credible leverage at a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz Intelligence infiltration, weak morale or shattered C2? Here is what happened, how, what it means & what to watch👇 https://t.co/fV6ZVIF2ro https://t.co/ULNebjzzJ2
The Houthi militia claimed a drone & missile attack on King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait. Following two months of strikes on energy & aviation infrastructure, the Houthis are widening target set to disrupt support, raise the cost of engagement & layer pressure across domains
Panic. The Horizon Brief traces how a single fabricated order collapsed 4+ formations sharing one front with no unified command, the resulting leverage this hands Iran at a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz & what to watch into September 21 coup 🧵 🔗 https://t.co/jPbNOXd6mK https://t.co/oiGClsYXiu
I flagged Bab al-Mandab as an IRGC priority 2 months ago It fell to the Houthis a few days ago, not to combat power, but intelligence infiltration exploiting shattered C2 One fake withdrawal order did what the fighting couldn't. Most accounts miss that. Here is what happened👇 https://t.co/IkTjcIDWTp
ليست النهاية اليمن وقضيته أكبر من معركة، وأسمى من خلافاتنا جميعاً. نعرف مرارة ما جرى في الساحل التهامي، وحجم الإحباط والغضب حين تُفقد أرض رُويت بدماء آلاف الأبطال من ربوع اليمن وأشقائهم. لكن أفدح الخسائر أن تتحول نكسة عسكرية إلى انكسار وطني، وأن نستبدل مراجعة الأخطاء بتبادل الاتهامات، ووحدة الغاية بصراع المصالح وخصومات الماضي. ليست هذه ساعة التلاوم ولا التخوين، بل ساعة التصحيح. الحروب سجال؛ تُفقد فيها مواقع وتُستعاد أخرى. بلغ اليمنيون في مراحل مختلفة أبواب الحديدة ومشارف صنعاء، وفي الساحل أوقفت خطيئة ستوكهولم زخم التحرير رغم إقرار عبدالملك الحوثي بخسارة ميلشياته مناطق واسعة في تلك الجولة، وقبل أن تكشف الأعوام التالية للعالم طبيعة التهديد العابر للحدود الذي تُرك بلا حسم. كما صمدت مأرب حين حشد الحوثيون وإيران لإسقاطها. وما بدا يومها حاسماً تبدل حين تماسكت القيادة والجيش والمقاومة، وتوحدت الإرادة، واستقام القرار، واستمر الإسناد. تتقاطع اليوم قضية الدولة ومصير الشعب اليمني مع مصالح إقليمية ودولية تتجاوز حدود اليمن؛ فلا يجوز أن تبقى رهينة لأهواء المليشيا وحسابات مرشد طهران. ولا يجوز أن يُحمل المقاتلون أخطاء القيادة، أو أن تضيع تضحيات الشهداء والجرحى وسط التراشق. الأولويات اليوم واضحة: رعاية الجرحى وأسر الشهداء، حماية النازحين، معرفة أسباب الخلل، إعادة تنظيم القوات، توحيد القيادة ومسرح العمليات، إسناد الجبهات، ومنع المليشيا من تثبيت مكاسبها؛ ثم استعادة المبادرة. قد تتلون لغة المليشيا وتتزين رسائل الاستمالة، لكن ذاكرة عدن ولحج والضالع وأبين وشبوة حاضرة. يعرف أبناء الجنوب حقيقة هذا الخطر. وقد أثبتت التجربة أن صمودهم وتكاتف الجميع ألحقا الهزيمة بالمليشيا من قبل؛ واليوم يستدعي الخطر المشترك روح ذلك التلاحم، واحتضان النازحين وإسناد من يقفون في وجهه. وعلى مختلف القوى السياسية أن تتذكر أن معركتنا ليست مع من نختلف معهم في الرأي أو الأسلوب، بل مع من جعل السلاح وسيلة للحكم والحرب قدراً مفروضاً على اليمن والمنطقة. هذه لحظة مؤلمة، لكنها ليست نهاية الطريق. بإرادة اليمنيين وإسناد أشقائهم وأصدقائهم، يمكن تحويل الأزمة إلى فرصة استراتيجية، واستئناف مسار الجمهورية والدولة والأمن والنماء في مواجهة الإمامة والمليشيا والفقر والدمار. ومن الجوف ومأرب والبيضاء إلى تعز ولحج، يظل تماسك الجبهات وتكاملها، ووحدة الهدف والقرار، وحسن التخطيط والتنسيق، أساساً للصمود ومنطلقاً لاستعادة مؤسسات الدولة. لا يُهزم اليمن ما دام فيه من يؤمن بدولته ويصمد من أجل جمهوريته، في الداخل والخارج.
Contrary to circulating rumours of a Houthi withdrawal from Bab al-Mandab approcahes, air strikes continue to target Houthi positions & reinforcements across the theatre. The expanded kill box aims at denying the militias time to fortify & attrit them. https://t.co/5OeM5heGdK
@NicRobertsonCNN meets @tarikyemen near Bab al-Mandab following his redeployment after yesterday’s withdrawal from Mocha, warning of the consequences for global energy markets & maritime trade if the strait & Mayun were to fall under IRGC-backed Houthi control. It must not!
As argued, the Houthi push toward Bab al-Mandab reflects an IRGC regional priorities: expanding coercive leverage over two critical maritime chokepoints snd strengthening Iran’s leverage vs the US. The IRGC is assessed to have over 400 personnel supporting Houthi operations.
On the eve of 9/11, one lesson endures: take transnational threats seriously before they materialise. The Houthis launched 200+ attacks, sank vessels, seized crews and disrupted Red Sea shipping for years without full control of the coast. Now they claim another ~120km of coastline and the strategic islands near Bab al-Mandab, yet insist the world should not worry. Amid a two-strait crisis and an active US-Iran war, the contradiction could hardly be clearer. A counteroffensive must be internationally supported.
Like Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab is falling into Houthi–IRGC leverage after layered pressure & “withdrawals” from Hays, al-Khokha & al-Mokha War has reversals; the battlefield is fluid Absent a credible strategy, pressure on two of the world’s critical maritime chokepoints is rising https://t.co/rjwlRqS2Vf
The Houthis are pushing hard towards Bab al Mandab. Will there be a surprising counteroffensive? https://t.co/qReXO3ca0U
Exclusive—Pakistan considers hitting Yemen's Houthis under Mecca pact upon Saudi request https://t.co/YGg6gPtJsQ
The IRGC is seeking to embed the Houthis within regional de-escalation frameworks under “end of siege” rhetoric, like Hezbollah. De-escalation should reduce coercive capacity, not legitimise/institutionalise it. The Axis’ cross-border military leverage must be constrained.
The Yemeni Armed Forces eliminated and captured several Houthi militants planning to launch attacks around the Strait of Bab Al Mandab. Houthi intent to control and disrupt the strait remains unchanged amid Iran’s diminishing leverage at Hormuz.
The Yemen clock may be ticking.
The Yemeni Armed Forces, supported by tribal resistance, have reportedly liberated Al-Yatmah, a strategic border and desert area in Khab wa al-Sha’f district, Al-Jawf. If confirmed & consolidated, the gain expands YAF border control and strengthens the advance toward Al-Hazm. https://t.co/9spLcLG21z
‼️Fake account impersonating @spokespersonyem
Somali Al Shabab fighters found dead among Houthi casualties, Yemeni forces say https://t.co/o1WLPiM6yc
YAF has recaptured Hayd al-Khazzan & al-Fulayhan in Al-Bayda, pushing into Al-Nasifah and reaching Dhi Amkhashab. Bayda is now a 5th active ground axis, stretching Houthi reserves & constraining reinforcement across fronts. YAF has absorbed the shock & regained the initiative. https://t.co/RL8BtdDQLR
BREAKING: YAF has recaptured the strategic Al-Labanat base in Al-Jawf, where Houthi local support is limited, social discontent is high & tribesmen will likely resist the rebels from within. These dynamics could accelerate government gains. https://t.co/qIbTVR365e
Yemeni Armed Forces have begun an operation to recapture Al-Jawf governorate. Success would ease Houthi pressure on Marib’s northern flank and the Tihama Coast approaches (including W Taiz), strengthen the government’s strategic depth, and reopen an axis toward Sa’ada & Sana’a. https://t.co/ohCK0T81zk
The Governor of Hodeida is seen in Hays after its recapture. His presence at the frontline is a statement of leadership, courage & responsibility. It demonstrates operational oversight and signals determination to translate military gains into stabilisation & durable authority.
Yemeni Armed Forces declared Hays district, Hodeidah, fully liberated. This secures the Hays axis, opens manoeuvre toward Mafraq al-Udayn, threatens a Houthi reinforcement route into western Taiz & creates options to push the counteroffensive north, southeast and east.
Yemeni Armed Forces retook several positions in Dubas and Suqam, NE of Hays, Hodeida. The GoY is fighting not only for itself, but for Red Sea security. 48 hours, the empire strikes back. Now comes real tests: how prepared is it? And whether it moves from defense to offence?