살 머콜리아노
@mercoglianos · 공개출처정보 및 분쟁 추적
살 머콜리아노는 선박 공격을 분석한 글이 전쟁 중 참고 자료로 자리 잡은 해양사학자입니다.
9월 12일 (로이터) – "파이낸셜타임스는 토요일 미국이 호르무즈 해협을 통과하는 유조선들에게 군사적 보호를 보장하기 위해 특정 시간대에만 항해해 달라고 요청했다고 보도했다. 이란이 야간에 항해하는 선박들에 대한 공격을 늘린 뒤의 조치다. 워싱턴은 5월부터 해협 남쪽의 오만 해안을 따라가는 항로로 항해하려는 선박들에 공중 방어를 제공해 왔다. 선박이 보호받을 수 있는 시간은 9월 초를 전후해 하루 두 개의 특정 시간대로 단축됐다고 FT는 미국 해군 조정 센터가 해양 자문관들에게 보낸 이메일을 인용해 보도했다."
영어에서 번역됨The Gemini Cooperation (Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd) are not seeing the recent Houthi seizure of Perim and Mocha, along with their attacks on Saudi tankers as a threat.
So, a few things about this assessment. The Saudis had decreased the amount of oil being shipped to Yanbu and was shifting to exporting oil via their terminal at Ras Tanura and via the Strait of Hormuz. The Bab el-Mandeb was always at risk from the Houthis - just see the 150 attacks on shipping from Nov 2023 to Sept 2025. The question here, is if the Houthis expand their recent attacks to beyond Saudi tankers. It will be largely up to the war risk insurance providers to determine if they are going to raise rates. This is what caused the shift around the Cape of Good Hope. According to @TankerTrackers, the 60-day average of oil coming past the US blockade line - meaning the oil that is being shipped via the Strait of Hormuz - is 7.85 Mbpd. I am not sure where they are getting 30 Mbpd as there is still oil flowing through the BAM - largely coming from Russia - and then the statement saying that disruption is 100 Mbpd to the global oil market when the total of oil loaded daily is approximately that amount.
What ships are deployed against Iran based on @USNINews, @thewarzonewire and @MarineTraffic: In the Red Sea: ⚓️USS Gonzalez (DDG-66) In the Arabian Sea: ⚓️USS George Washington (CVN-73) ⚓️USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) ⚓️USS Princeton (CG-59) ⚓️USS Donald Cook (DDG-75) ⚓️USS Shoup (DDG-86) ⚓️USS John Finn (DDG-113) ⚓️USS Delbert D. Black (DDG-119) ⚓️USS McFaul (DDG-74) ⚓️USS Mason (DDG-87) ⚓️USS Higgins (DDG-76) ⚓️USS John Paul Jones (DDG-53) ⚓️USS Milius (DDG-69) ⚓️USS Rafael Peralta (DDG-115) ⚓️USS Spruance (DDG-111) ⚓️USS Ross (DDG-71) ⚓️USS Mustin (DDG-89) ⚓️USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) ⚓️USS Miguel Keith (ESB-5) ⚓️USS Boxer (LHD-4) ⚓️USS Comstock (LSD-45) ⚓️USS Portland (LPD-27) Military Sealift Command: ⚓️USNS Arctic (T-AOE-8) ⚓️USNS John Lenthall (T-AO-189) ⚓️USNS Henry J Kaiser (T-AO-187) ⚓️USNS John Lewis (T-AO-205) ⚓️USNS Cesar Chavez (T-AKE-14) ⚓️USNS Wally Schirra (T-AKE-8) ⚓️USNS Alan Shepard (T-AKE-3) https://t.co/HZRm783saK
Houthis push towards Bab el Mandeb after seizure of Mokha, raising fears for Red Sea shipping ⚓️Mokha falls: Houthi forces have seized the strategic Red Sea port, pushing Saudi-backed forces south towards the Bab el Mandeb Strait ⚓️Island threat grows: reports suggest Houthi fighters are moving onto Perim and Hanish islands, potentially giving them greater reach over shipping transiting the southern Red Sea ⚓️Risk to energy trade: the advance threatens a key alternative route for Saudi oil exports, adding pressure to global supply chains and keeping crude prices above $100 per barrel https://t.co/9QnC0fRHIE
Crippled Bahri - Sidr - VLCC is under tow 🚢Immobilised tanker hit 10 days ago laden with 2m barrels of crude oil 🚢Megatugs recently deployed tug Giant to Fujairah to better respond to casualties in Hormuz 🚢Salvir has also deployed a tug to Black Sea danger zone https://t.co/Kd4pmnfI2y
Escalating Middle East tensions raise supply anxieties in Asia bunker markets 🚢Bunker market players are increasingly concerned about constrained supplies as more attacks continue, limiting Hormuz transits 🚢Chinese demand rose briefly this week as buyers look to snap up cargoes to limit exposures to steep gains in crude futures 🚢Middle East Gulf ports are also facing shortages, with exports out of the region uncertain https://t.co/9OaFjHhPOv
Samir Madani of @TankerTrackers is joining What's Going on With Shipping on Wednesday, September 9 to discuss: ⚓️How much oil is coming out of the Strait of Hormuz ⚓️Competing dark fleets of the U.S., Russia and Iran ⚓️The founding of Tanker Trackers https://t.co/ADTsW43FHb
Iran proposes Hormuz shipping corridor as tanker war with US escalates ⚓️Tehran says it will soon sign an agreement with Oman establishing a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz ⚓️IMO is yet to receive any official proposal ⚓️Announcement follows US strikes on three Iran-linked tankers after Iranian missile attacks on US warships, marking a significant escalation in the maritime conflict https://t.co/VY3Dd9GpVA
Iran Says to Announce New Restricted Zone in the Gulf in the Coming Days https://t.co/Of1ai4bPUS
Red Sea Coastal Battles Intensify Raising New Concerns for Shipping https://t.co/7VlLAKLmgX #maritime #maritime-news
20 empty Iran-flagged tankers are currently loitering off Sri Lanka—namely, STREAM, HALTI, DREAM II, HERO II, SILVIA I, SEA CLIFF, SNOW, HELM, DIAMOND II, DEEP SEA, DUNE, DINO I, SONIA I, HERBY, SEVIN, AMBER, HENNA, FELICITY, HUGE, and DORE. From August 23, most of these Iran-flagged tankers departed the Galle anchorage and started loitering within the vicinity of Sri Lanka. The impact of the blockade is preventing the return of these ships to Iran. There are 7 Iran-flagged tankers currently in the Eastern Outer Port Limits anchorage (EOPL) off Malaysia: HUMANITY, STARLA, HILDA I, DAN, HAPPINESS I, HEDY, and DORENA, which have either offloaded or waiting to conduct ship-to-ship transfers. Source: @UANI
War Risk Claims Top $2 Billion as Shipping Attacks Spread Beyond Hormuz “There have been around $2 billion in war risk claims since the outbreak of the fighting in the Middle East, with over 70 claims to date,” explained David Osler, Law & Marine Insurance Editor at Lloyd’s List. “This will be offset by heavily enhanced premium income. I think it’s exceeded only by payouts on the container ship that brought down the bridge in Baltimore in 2024....Roughly $7 or $8 on the price of a barrel of crude is now tied to war risk insurance...Rates have fluctuated with political developments, but they’re currently sitting as high as 10% of hull value.” https://t.co/cQSwCXsAoM
Hormuz-related force majeure declarations could create unprecedented chaos ⚓️Middle East Gulf facilities have been implicated by the Hormuz crisis, causing major commodity producers to halt production and declare force majeure with restarts set to take a while ⚓Off-takers of gulf-origin cargoes may face challenges from their downstream customers on force majeure claims, with continued Hormuz transits ⚓Bad actors could look to exploit the Hormuz crisis to get out of contractual obligations even if they might not be directly implicated https://t.co/e2jQFAu8Zb
Latest release by @CENTCOM shows disabling strikes against two Iranian tankers, following Iran's attack on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Both strikes appear to be disabling hits against the steering compartment on the aft end of the ship. The ship on the left may be the tanker Hasna. Not sure about the identity of the one on the right. Hasna is a 23 year old, 300k ton, 333 meter (1095 foot) crude oil tanker anchored off Bandar Abbas.
How does Bessent not understand the spike in oil prices? 5 attacks this week against tankers in the Strait by Iran.
So, our choice for frigates is Turkey; or two countries within the missile envelope of China and don't build warships at a scale that the U.S. needs.
U.S. Strikes Iran as Tanker Attacks Raise Stakes in Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/cBvQTTRDc7
Tanker struck by projectile in Strait of Hormuz as Iran claims mine attack on VLCC ⚓️A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman on August 29; no casualties were reported, but the Strait of Hormuz remains at a ‘severe’ threat level, with traffic far below normal ⚓️Iran’s IRGC said a very large crude carrier was struck by two naval mines and caught fire in the strait on Monday ⚓️The US struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, its first strikes on Iran since late July; Iran retaliated with missiles and drones against two air bases in Jordan ⚓️Washington says the strait is open under US naval protection; Tehran insists it remains closed and accuses US officials of manipulating energy markets https://t.co/CvEbIa8P8d
Sinokor VLCC struck three times in Strait of Hormuz Iran continues to hit vessels in the Strait of Hormuz while another US interdiction looks likely in the Indian Ocean https://t.co/MD4EC1lDGh
CENTCOM Says Iran Attempts to Intimidate Shipping with False Reports https://t.co/Dn8XKeQNUu #maritime #maritime-news
🚨Four Attacks in Hormuz🚨 https://t.co/fQfJbCGpc0
Okay...that is not USNS Henry J. Kaiser (T-AO 187). That is one of the three T-AKE combat stores ships - Alan Shepard, Cesar Chavez or Wally Schirra - that are sustaining the naval forces in the Arabian Sea. The helicopters are part of a detachment off one of the T-AKE and are also civilian crewed - AS-332 Super Pumas.
Kpler has been continually updating its data as ships appear outside the Strait. This had not been a secret to those who understand what data was available and how they were generating their data. The US shuttle operation via the Oman channel creates difficulty since ships are conducting ship to ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The chart provided needs the following context. Pre-war flow out of the Persian Gulf was 20 Mbpd and 3 Mbpd by the Fujariah/Yanbu pipelines. We can see from the chart that on or about 6 July, oil exceeded the pre-war levels. However, during the period of the chart, the 7-day average fluctuates between 10 and 15 Mbpd versus 23. The chart does not include Yanbu and it does not break up Iranian oil from the rest of the Gulf states. This reduction in Persian Gulf flow coincided with a significant reduction in consumption. The issue will be as consumption rises again, will the reduction in global stocks, due to the loss of oil during the first months of the conflict, have an impact on prices.
Question for @US5thFleet and @CMF_Bahrain, how is this happening? What presence - aerial or surface - does the US and Gulf States have in the Strait of Hormuz to counter an Iranian boat with a searchlight? If the Iranians can relay identies and positions, they can launch attacks from anywhere along the coast or in the interior of Iran. Also, why do we not have secure comms and liaisons embarked on the transiting ships to provide real time intelligence? This is the same tactic used by Houthis in the Red Sea.
연결된 기사
- Four Projectiles Strike Two Vessels Near Strait of Hormuz
- More Than 100 U.S. Military Advisers Support Saudi Campaign Against Houthis
- Iran Claims It Targeted Six Vessels After U.S. Tanker Strikes
- IRGC Claims It Attacked U.S. Unmanned Vessel Near Strait of Hormuz
- IRGC Claims U.S. Warships Were Damaged; CENTCOM Says They Evaded Attack
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Tankers After New Missile Attempt on Navy Warship
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- Iran Says It Will Create New Sanctions Zone Outside Strait of Hormuz
- White House Says Iran Naval Blockade and Economic Pressure Remain in Force
- U.S. Strikes Two Iranian State Tankers Under New Retaliation Policy
- Tanker Reports Three Projectile Strikes While Exiting Strait of Hormuz
- U.S. Forces Begin Striking IRGC Targets in Iran After Attempted Attacks