사산
@eghtesadnia · 싱크탱크 및 분석가 — 미국/영국
사산은 필명으로 활동하는 이란 국제관계 논평가입니다.
One thing that I noticed from videos is that there are alot of Chinese cars in Israel… I mean you would think that as America’s #1 ally they would have exported all their cars there lol 😅
Diplomacy has its ups and downs… I don’t think it appropriate seeing some Iranians unjustifiably slander Oman for a minor inconvenience that for the most part wasn’t even their fault but rather the other participating Persian Gulf states’…
Monday's Muscat Summit could be a pretty significant event in the region... It would be the first time in a while that officials from the region would be meeting together at this caliber... with the Foreign Ministers of the Persian Gulf littoral states (with the exception of Bahrain dropping out lol) and Iraq expected to participate... The Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement, though said to be temporary, could lay the foundation for a post-war framework for the management of the Strait, as Iran is no longer keen on it returning to the pre-war status quo (as per Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU)... Participation of the Persian Gulf littoral states in the signing of this somewhat temporary agreement could give it the weight and legitimacy it needs moving forward and could help de-escalate tensions in the region, but also help reduce any bilateral tension that could exist between Iran and the regional states... (Bahrain, oddly enough, does not seem keen on burying the hatchet with Iran and wants the tensions to continue)... But I don't think the main aspect of the summit is the signing of the Iran-Oman deal… rather it’s the consultative nature of the event... With all the region's Foreign Ministers present face-to-face, issues of mutual concern could be discussed and addressed... Optimistically, this agreement and possible de-escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf could play a role in reducing global oil prices... and present the US a golden opportunity to end its aggression... President Pezeshkian even reiterated that the Strait would open as soon as the US lifts the blockade on Iran and commits to its obligations under the MoU... but whether Trump ends up taking this off-ramp opportunity remains yet to be seen... Again, the Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement does NOT necessarily mean the Strait is open.
Well unlike last year, President Pezesahkian will be attending the 18th BRICS Summit and is set to travel to New Delhi tomorrow... Interestingly, Russia's Putin and China's Xi Jinping and Egypt's El-Sisi are also expected to be there... would be a great occasion for President Pezeshkian to hold some high-level consultations with them... Additionally, a meeting between Dr. Araghchi and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud on the sidelines is to be expected in light of the recent regional developments... But what I am most curious about is whether there are any odds of a meeting with the UAE's Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan possibly happening???
Happy Birthday Bashar Al-Assad 🥳🎂
Even more interestingly, Dr. Araghchi once again spoke to Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir... The two reviewed the latest regional developments and exchanged views on the escalation of tensions and the increase in insecurity in the region and its consequences for regional peace and stability... Dr. Araghchi and Field Marshal Asim Munir reiterated the importance of vigilance and coordination among regional countries regarding current developments and emphasised the use of "shared capacities" to help establish sustainable peace and security in the region...
Interestingly, Dr. Araghchi held a phone call with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud today... The two discussed and exchanged views on the latest regional developments, including tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and notably Yemen... Dr. Araghchi and his Saudi counterpart both emphasised the need for continued cooperation, coordination and diplomatic efforts to prevent the spread of tensions and restore stability and security to the region...
Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, once again warns that the IAEA’s politicised actions may push Iran to withdraw from the NPT 👀
This was rather interesting coming from Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (who's also Iran's chief negotiator)... Apparently he believes in an attempt to lower the oil prices, the US may leak fake 'peace talks' being underway and then send diplomatic envoys (Steve and Jared)...
Does this mean I flew onboard the new Air Force Pezeshkian? 😎😎😎
WAIT... I JUST FOUND OUT THIS WAS ASEMAN AIRLINES' EP-APA 😭😭😭 I flew on this plane to Istanbul a few years ago 💀💀💀
I still miss Air Force Pezeshkian and Air Araghchi 🥺🥺🥺 https://t.co/Ya1cTOwP67
After the previous Iranian Government Airbus A340 (EP-IGA) was destroyed in a US-Israeli attack... Iran apparently acquired a new Airbus A340 (registered EP-IGI) and has undergone testing and its cabin reconfigured into a VIP layout... Its reportedly ready and operational... https://t.co/RgW6A51ocI
If the democrats win the midterms… odds are that Trump’s gonna blame them for the war on Iran not ending 😂😂😂
In an attempt to sway public perception ahead of the midterms... seems as though Trump claims that the war on Iran would "end immediately after the election"...
One thing I personally found rather intriguing was when M. Gen. Rezaei said that Iran doesn’t sink violating American ships secretly crossing the Strait of Hormuz because they are carrying oil and sinking them would damage the region’s environment… 🥹🥹🥹 https://t.co/KI9av8TCqu
Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said some interesting stuff tonight... He says that the Americans must gain Iran's trust for negotiations to continue... adds that one of Iran's major issues with the Islamabad MoU was trusting the guarantees of the intermediaries in the negotiations... M. Gen. Rezaei says Iran is pursuing diplomacy with guarantees... "Iran will only commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the US neither threatens nor attacks Iran" He also reveals that Iran has been selling oil and has been getting the money back to Iran... M. Gen. Rezaei states that the claim that America's economic blockade is the cause of a 'major famine' in Iran is a huge lie... saying that Iran's government had been thinking and planning about this for quite a long time and has sufficient reserves of food and essential goods...
Rumour has it that a Qatari delegation is coming to Tehran for mediation to help de-escalate Iran-US's rising tensions 👀
This was pretty interesting... apparently Iran's Minister of Economy Dr. Madanizadeh has travelled to Moscow... He is set to follow up on several Iran-Russia economic agreements and hold bilateral (and multilateral) consultations... Negotiations with Russia's Minister of Finance and consultations within the framework of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation are on the agenda... Would be interesting to see how much of a role Russia (and other multilateral organisations like BRICS and SCO) could play in helping manage Iran's economic crisis...
Alot of interesting and noteworthy contacts taking place as tensions continue to rise in the region... We had Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaking with his Omani counterpart Badr Al Busaidi discussing the diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating Iran-US tensions... Then earlier this morning, Dr. Araghchi held separate calls with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, discussing the latest developments, specifically the tit-for-tat oil tanker strikes in the Persian Gulf, as well as the diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring regional stability... And then also Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaking with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to discuss the events that unfolded, with both parties stressing the need to resume implementation of the Islamabad MoU to prevent further regional escalation... I don't much of a diplomatic breakthrough ahead, but its interesting to note that all mediators are trying their best to prevent the Iran-US tensions from escalating any further...
No statement on this from the Iranian Foreign Ministry yet but still pretty noteworthy if true...
Iran's playing all the right cards of gradual escalation... By striking 6 ships after the US struck 3 Iran signals that moving forward, it would be responding with twice the magnitude...
Intrestingly, Dr. Araghchi's two favourite Badrs (Badr Al Busaidi and Badr Abdelatty) spoke on the phone today... Oman and Egypt's Foreign Ministers discussed the latest regional developments and the mediation efforts to de-escalate Iran-US tensions... https://t.co/1aSUtVcOi4
Right now neither Tehran nor Washington are so keen on diplomacy... and what seems clear is that these tit-for-tat attacks are bound to continue... The US is under the impression that its pressure campaign would subjugate Iran, and Iran's distrust towards the US is further cemented and it won't talk unless the US fulfils its commitments under the Islamabad MoU the two states signed... Pressure campaigns do not yield results when it comes to Iran... we have witnessed this time and time again... the best way to deal with Iran is through dialogue and diplomacy... Tehran's diplomatic options remain open... But Iran could be experimenting its military option of gradual escalation... I think if Iran's military escalation works out in pressuring Washington, we could have negotiations resume by late October... If not, Iran might escalate tensions further to ensure Republicans lose the upcoming midterms... My question however is that how much are countries (especially China and Russia) willing to aid the Iranian economy and nullify the effects of the sanctions...
While we're on the subject of Iranian tankers... I gotta say the emblem on the bows go hard 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/BbzKAluPw5
연결된 기사
- Mohsen Rezaei Says IAEA Moves Will Push Countries Out of NPT
- Republican Strategists Say Iran War Is Hurting Trump’s Midterm Campaign
- IRGC Claims It Attacked U.S. Unmanned Vessel Near Strait of Hormuz
- Iran Claims It Targeted Six Vessels After U.S. Tanker Strikes
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- Iranian Command Threatens Harsher Strikes on U.S. Warships if Blockade Continues