바바크 바흐다드
@BabakVahdad · 이란 관측가, 핵 전문가 및 반체제 인사
바바크 바흐다드는 이란·아프가니스탄·파키스탄·페르시아만을 다루는 독립 공개정보(OSINT) 분석가입니다.
Some reports today, including Iranian sources, suggest, although this has not been independently confirmed, that Saudi Arabia has used Chinese-made DF-15 ballistic missiles against the Houthis in Yemen, apparently for the first time. - If confirmed, there is also a broader point here: this is a useful reminder of the limits of Iranian expectations regarding China. - Beijing is not in the Middle East simply to back Iran. It has its own interests and partnerships across the region, including deep strategic ties with Saudi Arabia. - So the point is: Chinese and Iranian interests may often overlap, but they do not necessarily coincide. #Iran
The IRGC says it has just shot down an advanced MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz using a new air-defense system operated by its Aerospace Force and integrated into Iran’s national air- defense network. - The claim has been carried by Iranian state and semi official media. No U.S. confirmation so far. #Iran
I agree with Danny here. Anyone who has worked on Iran-whether as a journalist or an analyst-knows how easy it is to find “sources” willing to tell the most extraordinary stories about internal power dynamics. Such claims may sound fascinating, yet many collapse within days. - In my opinion the truth is that excellent analysis of Iran can be produced through careful OSINT: following Persian-language sources, reading what Iranian actors actually publish, and patiently connecting the dots. - That is usually more reliable than building a sensational story around the first anonymous “insider” who promises clicks. #Iran
If reports that the Oman meeting was postponed at Saudi Arabia’s request following the attacks on its pipelines are confirmed, this would once again show how closely Yemen and Hormuz are connected. - It is not possible to resolve one without addressing the other. #Iran
Oman meeting postponed. #Iran
Interesting sequence of calls tonight: after speaking with Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan, Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. - According to the Iranian readout, Araghchi and Munir discussed the escalation of regional tensions and stressed the need for coordination among regional countries to preserve peace and stability. #Iran #Pakistan #SaudiArabia
Two developments worth reading together: Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia is resisting calls from the Aden government for greater air support against the Houthis, limiting itself for now to logistical, military and intelligence assistance. At the same time, Faisal bin Farhan and Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone, stressing the need to prevent a wider regional escalation. If this reading is correct-and it may not be-Riyadh is backing its allies in Yemen, but clearly does not want the conflict to turn again into a direct Saudi-Houthi confrontation, while keeping the channel with Tehran open. #Iran
Look at what the SNSC Secretary says….. #Iran
Just listened to the Russian and Chinese interventions at the UN Security Council meeting on Iran, and the difference in tone was interesting. - Moscow went well beyond its usual criticism of Western policy, questioning the very legitimacy of the meeting and arguing that no decision had been taken to restore previous UNSC resolutions or re-establish the 1737 Sanctions Committee. The Russian representative also accused European countries of ignoring developments on the ground while using both New York and Vienna to build political pressure on Tehran. - China took a more diplomatic line. While explicitly tracing the roots of the current nuclear crisis to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and the subsequent maximum-pressure campaign, Beijing focused on reducing tensions, finding common ground and returning to diplomacy on the basis of equality and mutual respect. - The difference is subtle but significant: Moscow is challenging the political and institutional framework through which pressure on Iran is being rebuilt, while Beijing seems more interested in defining the terms of a possible diplomatic way out. #Iran
Excellent analysis by @Malbrunot on how the Gulf monarchies are navigating the confrontation with Iran. - The most striking revelation: according to French and Gulf diplomatic and industry sources, the UAE and Qatar provided money to Tehran, in one form or another, to shield themselves from Iranian strikes after the mid-June US-Iran agreement. - A remarkable insight into the quiet diplomacy, and hard calculations, taking place behind the scenes in the region. #Iran
What is happening in Yemen cannot be isolated from the wider Iran-US confrontation. Escalation around Mocha and Bab el-Mandeb changes regional calculations and, above all, makes the regional coordination needed to sustain a diplomatic track between Tehran and Washington increasingly difficult if not impossible. #Iran
Interesting timing for the call between Oman’s Badr al-Busaidi and Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan. - It comes as heavy fighting is underway in Yemen between the Houthis and Saudi-backed forces, while tensions around Hormuz remain high. - Officially, they discussed regional developments, freedom of navigation and de-escalation. With Muscat maintaining channels with both Tehran and Sanaa, it is hard to see Yemen not being part of the broader picture. #Iran
Those in Tehran who might once have worried about such developments are long gone. #Iran
In its Statement No. 15, the IRGC says that, in retaliation for U.S. strikes on five Iranian oil tankers, its Navy targeted two U.S. vessels and eight oil tankers, claiming they suffered heavy damage. - It also says another 10 ships were targeted while attempting to cross the “prohibited and unsafe zone” in the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. support. #Iran
The IRGC Navy has issued an unusually explicit warning following the latest US strikes on Iranian oil tankers. - It is telling crews of oil tankers in and around ports in Kuwait and Bahrain to immediately leave their vessels, whether docked or at anchor, warning that they will be targeted. - The statement accuses both countries of hosting US forces and being complicit in US military actions. #Iran
Iranian channels close to the IRGC are stressing the importance of the U.S. AUV now in Iranian hands, particularly the potential value of reverse engineering it. Even if access to sensitive software is limited, studying its sensors, navigation, communications and underwater architecture could still be useful for Iran’s own surveillance and countermeasure capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. - In the previous hours, the IRGC had claimed the capture of the U.S. unmanned underwater vehicle near Hormuz and separately announced the interception and destruction of a U.S. MQ-1 over the Strait. Iranian officials are presenting both episodes as evidence that their surveillance now covers the air, surface and underwater domains. - The U.S. version is different. CENTCOM has acknowledged losing an underwater military drone, but says it suffered a technical malfunction during a mission. -Reuters also quotes a U.S. official saying the vehicle malfunctioned more than a day earlier and did not carry classified sonar or radar equipment. - Tehran is nevertheless presenting the episode as a major technological and operational success. Qalibaf went as far as saying that the U.S. “smart submarine” program had been knocked out. More broadly, this fits the harder posture now emerging around Hormuz: Mohsen Rezaei says Iran has fundamentally revised its operational approach toward U.S. ships and bases, while the Khatam al-Anbiya command is warning that any attack on Iranian tankers will trigger strikes on U.S. bases and interests across the region. #Iran
Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing today. - According to Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, they discussed regional developments, diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions, and the need to ensure security and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. #Iran
As expected Kayhan’s Hossein Shariatmadari sharply escalates the attack on Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami over their calls for an “honorable end to the war” and an “honorable peace.” - He claims their remarks reflect a “common and highly suspicious source,” align with US and Israeli demands, and calls on judicial and security bodies not to ignore them. - A clear sign of how politically sensitive, and increasingly securitized, the debate over ending the war has become inside Iran. #Iran
Agree with Hamidreza here. The regional diplomatic signals emerging yesterday do not mean diplomacy has much of a chance. - My point is that the Yemen front makes this even harder. Saudi-backed government forces have launched a major offensive in Al-Jawf, opening another significant front against Ansarallah. - With Saudi Arabia-a key player in any regional diplomatic effort-once again facing an escalating Yemen front, it is difficult to see how the current diplomatic momentum can produce much, at least for now. #Iran
Quite a few pieces moved today around the Iran-US file: - Araghchi attended a parliamentary committee meeting where Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz were discussed. - Al Jazeera reported that the Qatari delegation which visited Tehran on Sunday brought proposals to lower tensions from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, and explored a possible return of Tehran and Washington to talks. - Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman then told CNN that Doha’s priority is reopening Hormuz, preventing further attacks on Iran and working towards a lasting settlement-not just another temporary pause. - Trump reposted the WSJ piece saying Pezeshkian and Qalibaf want to negotiate an end to the war while Iran still has leverage. - And tonight, RT, citing a political source in Tehran, says Washington has sent new proposals to Iran through mediators. Tehran has reportedly responded with its own conditions, while contacts continue. - None of this means a deal is around the corner. But there is clearly a lot more going on behind the scenes than we can see. #Iran
Pezeshkian was already under attack at home. After this, he’ll be grilled even more. #Iran https://t.co/byzLHr4ubb
Another phone call worth adding to the diplomatic activity I highlighted this morning (below the previous tweet). - Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan held separate calls with Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar and Iran’s Abbas Araghchi, discussing ongoing efforts to preserve regional security and stability. - This adds another piece to the increasingly dense pattern of contacts between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue. - It is also worth recalling that yesterday Araghchi spoke with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, with the two discussing “comprehensively” the latest developments in the ongoing Iran-U.S. negotiations. - Taken together, these contacts suggest that regional diplomacy around both Hormuz and the negotiations is becoming increasingly active. - Also worth noting: Reuters reported today that mediators and Iran are discussing a “new formula” to resolve the current standoff, although its terms remain unclear. - Time will tell if something is moving. - As the saying goes, a pessimist is just a well-informed optimist (forgive me for this). #Iran
Qalibaf’s remarks today spell out more clearly the logic behind Iran’s recent retaliation. “The era of proportional responses is over,” he said, adding that the recent strikes on U.S. bases were “only the beginning.” From now on, any attack on Iran’s security or interests would be met with a response that is “faster, heavier and more painful.” - Qalibaf is essentially saying that Tehran no longer sees proportionality as the basis of its response. The message is that Iran intends to impose costs greater than those it suffers, in the hope that the prospect of escalation itself will deter the next U.S. strike. - The other half of Qalibaf’s speech is also interesting. He openly acknowledges the pressure from inflation, unemployment, sharp currency fluctuations and problems in managing the market. Adds that people will not accept mismanagement simply because the country is at war. - That helps explain why he repeatedly linked “internal cohesion” to “external deterrence.” Tehran is trying to show that it can absorb pressure and escalate abroad, while clearly aware that the economic front may increasingly become a vulnerability at home. #Iran
Worth noting these phone calls among regional leaders at a moment when tensions in Hormuz are increasing. Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi held separate calls with Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan and Turkish FM Hakan Fidan, discussing the latest diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring regional stability and addressing insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz. - Separately, the Egyptian and Pakistani foreign ministers discussed the need to resume implementation of the Islamabad Memorandum between Iran and the United States and work toward a broader agreement to end the war and prevent further regional escalation. - Still too early to read this as a diplomatic breakthrough, but the intensification of regional contacts is worth watching. #Iran
In its Communiqué No. 11, the IRGC says it attacked a U.S. unmanned surface vessel attempting to enter what Iran calls a “protected area” of the Strait of Hormuz. - The new element is the extension of Iran’s interdiction campaign to U.S. unmanned naval assets. - It looks like after warships and commercial vessels, remotely operated U.S. platforms entering areas Iran considers restricted are now also being treated as targets. #Iran