대니얼 파이프스
@DanielPipes · 공적 지식인, 저자 및 논평가
대니얼 파이프스는 중동포럼의 창립자이자 오랜 경력의 이슬람주의 연구자입니다. 그의 ‘이스라엘 승리’ 구상은 이스라엘을 거부하는 팔레스타인의 노선이 패배해야 전쟁이 끝난다고 주장합니다.
Prediction: As energy reserves dry up and tankers do not enter the Strait of Hormuz, I expect the price of crude, which has stayed relatively stable for a half a year, will shoot up to something like $200 a barrel or $9 a gallon. https://t.co/nqF0Lbg4mV
This cover of the @DCExaminer dramatizes how U.S. high hopes have collapsed six months after the war on Iran's Islamic Republic began. "The New Mideast: A chance to dramatically transform a troubled region." https://t.co/OToN73XCWE
There's a great deal of discussion about tankers leaving through the Strait of Hormuz. But that misses the key point. Far more important: whether tankers are entering the Strait of Hormuz to pick up oil and gas. Best I can tell, that is not happening. If that's so, then when the various reserves run out, $200 per barrel looks reasonable.
I answer @SanaMaqboool's big question, "Who Will Win in the U.S.-Iranian Confrontation?" on @PakistanTV. The reply is not a happy one. https://t.co/waY7k6ikvn https://t.co/o8BVymimOi
#Balochistan presents more bad news for the new rulers in Tehran, according to #ManishRai: "It is only a matter of time before Iran experiences an intense insurgency in its southeastern province akin to the Kurdish insurgency in Iranian Kurdistan (Rojhelat)." https://t.co/PxTSksGs6d
I am encouraged that @YSegalovitz — a Jewish and Zionist former police official, lawmaker, and deputy minister — has joined Ra’am, an historically Islamist party shedding its roots. It's a step toward the integration of Israel's Muslim citizens.
This is about the most surprising headline I have ever read, courtesy of @IsraelHayomEng: "Hasidic leaders to meet with Trump as fight over IDF draft law reaches White House. The Satmar rebbes, leaders of the anti-Zionist Hasidic movement, are expected to visit the Oval Office on Thursday, to press Trump on the plight of 'tens of thousands of Jews in the land of Israel'." https://t.co/R7UifyCtQv
In a jaw-dropping bit of leftist logic, Michigan AG @DanaNessel, instructs fellow Jews to ignore their own interests (implying they should vote for @AbdulElSayed): "Come November, what do your Jewish values tell you to do? It's so easy to hate people right now, especially other Democrats who seem to have thrown us under the bus, despite our lifelong contributions to our party. … "It is perhaps up to us now to follow in [Queen Esther's] path and sacrifice the comfort, safety and security and even the very future of our own people in exchange for the opportunity to save the rest of humanity. "What good is defending the historic homeland of our ancestors and demanding that candidates acknowledge its right to exist if the planet upon which it rests is no longer inhabitable?" https://t.co/Qdch8ZInlX
Important reminder from Angel Mas of @ACOM_es: "Israelis should remember two distinctions: Sánchez is not Spain. And Morocco is not the Abraham Accords. "Spain is a constitutional democracy of almost 50 million people. Sánchez's hostility toward Israel has been vigorously challenged by the opposition and civil society. Governments change and elections matter. "Morocco presents almost the opposite picture: relations with Israel are warm at the top — particularly when Rabat speaks in English to Western and Israeli audiences — while Moroccan society is overwhelmingly hostile to normalization and the government's own rhetoric toward Israel is considerably less friendly than many Israelis realize." https://t.co/jFkkyyhnRB
Could the Turkish-Israeli confrontation, which has diplomatic, media-driven and economic dimensions, deteriorate into military conflict? @EyalZisser replies: "The problem is that relations have virtually nowhere left to fall. Moreover, many of the restraints and barriers that for years prevented the deterioration and escalation of ties between the two countries have gradually eroded. A military confrontation can therefore no longer be ruled out, particularly one sparked by a miscalculation, events spiraling out of control or one side misunderstanding the other's actions." https://t.co/wD7rIbmhUH
Israeli analyst: "There is a consensus that if the Iranian regime feels it is about to fall, it will go to war, even a bloody one, before it agrees to give up, in the spirit of Samson's biblical cry, 'Let me die with the Philistines.' We, in Israel, need to be prepared for that possibility. At any moment, they could launch missiles at us." https://t.co/qx5ccQn75d
Dan Illouz (@dillouz), a member of the Knesset who recently left the Likud Party for Yisrael Beiteinu: "Today, if you genuinely believe in the foundational values of the Likud, you have no choice but to leave the Likud." https://t.co/jZUOPRNcYp
Have you heard of Israel's new political party, the #HarediPublicParty, headed by @MotiLeitner, deputy mayor of Beit Shemesh? It promises to solve Israel's deepest political problem, the alienation of the Haredim (aka Ultra-Orthodox) from the country's educational, economic, and military life. May it succeed brilliantly in the forthcoming elections. (Follow its English-language X account at @HatziburCharedi to learn more.) https://t.co/FoZV08PEnP
And here is an even more fanatic picture, if possible, also from Yemen, this one taken by an @AP photographer and published in @TheTimes of London. https://t.co/2LiaPMFJGH
And now, my third appearance on Pakistani television, again on @PakTVGlobal with host @SanaMaqboool, now focused on whether Trump's radically different policy toward the Middle East is likely aberrant or a long-term change. (I think and hope the former.) https://t.co/KUtjaAYV58 https://t.co/6HUitK74gN
.@MRubin1971's latest breakthrough idea: "Ukraine Should Target Bashar Al-Assad in Moscow. Striking Assad Would Embarrass Putin and Shake the Air of Invincibility That He Seeks to Construct."
What importance has the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed by the governments of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye? Very little, @GreggRoman explains: "Each signatory has bound itself to the patrons of its enemies. Turkey hosts and champions the Muslim Brotherhood, which Riyadh outlawed in 2014. A Greek Patriot crew shot down the Houthi missiles aimed at Yanbu in July, and two weeks later the kingdom signed a defense pact with Greece’s principal adversary. Riyadh cultivates the government in Kabul that Pakistan fights along its own frontier. That is not an alliance, but a photo op."