빌 비숍
@niubi · 아시아
이스라엘국은 아시아 섹션의 중국 관련 언론·시사 보도를 위해 빌 비숍을 팔로우합니다.
One thing I don’t understand is that given PRC won’t engage in arms control because they are behind, why do people think they would on AI in a meaningful way? What am I missing?
Translation of the "Global Times Quick Take: Targeting Chinese AI! America’s “Tech Right” Produces a Cold War Script" https://t.co/MrzmOSe0vg "Amodei’s attempt to discuss global AI safety while “containing China” is both a completely mistaken judgment and a fundamentally unrealizable fantasy. As one of the largest and most open suppliers in the global AI ecosystem, China’s AI capabilities have long since ceased to be a variable that can be “excluded.” Forcibly severing the global AI industrial and innovation chains and excluding China and Chinese companies would only greatly increase the trial-and-error costs and risks of loss of control in global AI development. Such “control of the pace” would itself lose all meaning. 阿莫迪试图在“遏制中国”的同时谈论全球AI安全，既是完全错误的判断，也是根本无法实现的妄想。作为全球AI生态中体量最大、开放程度最高的供给方之一，中国的AI能力早已不是一个可以被“排除在外”的变量。如果强行割裂全球AI产业链、创新链，将中国和中国企业排除在外，只会大幅提升全球AI发展的试错成本与失控隐患，这样的“控制节奏”本身已经丧失意义。"
“This is an attempt by a specific political movement in San Francisco, moving in conjunction with one of the major political parties, to insert itself in the operations of every AI company, nominally in pursuit of a goal that is futile. I find the constant “because of China” admonitions to often be tiring, but in this specific case it’s absolutely justified: “pacing the frontier” in a world of geopolitical competition with China is stupid and not going to happen; that reality ought to end the whole argument.”
“In the days leading up to Trump Jr.’s wedding, Kremlev was in China as part of the delegation accompanying Putin, according to Chinese state media. The month before, Putin had bestowed him with a state honor, the Order of Friendship. The Ukrainian government has imposed sanctions on Kremlev personally, citing his closeness to Putin and Russian security services.”
Donald Trump Jr.’s Bahamas Wedding Was Secretly Bankrolled by Russian Oligarch Close to Putin The oligarch, Umar Kremlev, spent hundreds of thousands on expenses like renting out a private island. He appears to have met Trump Jr. only recently, but he attended the intimate wedding with a large group of other Russian guests. https://t.co/tjSBQaXl9P
The Party has a say, not going to happen "inside China itself" - "To prevent the risk of China achieving global AI dominance, we should use the full power of our private sector, our scientific establishment, and our governments in concert to drive American and Western AI to absolute global dominance, including ultimately inside China itself. We win, they lose." Just read the Minister of State Security last month https://t.co/MzLGWyB8Vq
technological sovereignty ship sailed long ago, there will be no "keeping China addicted to the US tech stack": "Fourth, intensify scientific and technological innovation. Increase research efforts on the basic principles of artificial intelligence and on key core technologies such as computing chips, development frameworks and application software; accelerate the establishment of artificial intelligence infrastructure such as national and local data resource pools and the “Eastern Data, Western Computing” collaborative network; encourage and guide government, enterprises, research institutions and other actors to strengthen collaboration; and have industry, academia and research work together to build an artificial intelligence ecosystem. We must ensure that key core technologies are autonomous and controllable, firmly grasp technological sovereignty, and achieve positive interaction and coordinated progress between innovation-enabled development and security governance. 四是加大科技创新力度。加大对人工智能领域基础原理和算力芯片、开发框架、应用软件等关键核心技术的科研攻关，加快建立国家和地方数据资源池、“东数西算”协同网络等人工智能基础设施，鼓励和引导政府、企业、科研机构等多主体加强协作，产学研协同构建人工智能生态系统，确保关键核心技术自主可控，牢牢掌握技术主权，实现创新赋能与安全治理的良性互动、协同并进。 https://t.co/MzLGWyB8Vq
Chen wrote this before the latest Anthropic revelations about Kimi and others routing queries with sensitive data to Claude, can't imagine there will be no repercussions for what Anthropic disclosed last week: "Some domestic users lack sufficient security awareness and use foreign artificial intelligence products to process sensitive information and transmit data overseas, causing large-scale leakage of domestic data. 国内部分用户安全意识不足，使用境外人工智能产品处理敏感信息和向境外输出数据，造成境内数据大规模外泄"
No wonder the PRC side, not NCUSCR or USCBC, invited the author to the meeting with Wang Yi in New York earlier this year. Good ROI for Charles Koch, one of the other US academics invited is paid out of his donations to Quincy https://t.co/mbLSGDqJfS
No wonder the PRC side, not NCUSCR or USCBC, invited the author to the meeting with Wang Yi in New York earlier this year. Good ROI for Charles Koch, one of the other US academics invited also is paid out of his donations to Quincy https://t.co/J4bodtgcHo
Today’s commentary is outside the paywall - Xi going to India; Plan for Building a Financial Powerhouse; Anthropic drops bombs in PRC AI firms; “Enemy-state clauses”; US-China, by @niubi https://t.co/jpcaodWk6G
Agree, the most important aspect of AI safety for Xi and the CPC is ensuring it can not threaten political security. Everything else is secondary to that
Maybe the way to get China to slowdown AI development is not some unenforceable agreement based on trust but rather much tougher crackdowns on distillation, chip smuggling and remote access to AI chips?
this report documents clear violations of PRC law by PRC entities. Anthropic should offer to forward its detailed findings to the Ministry of Public Security through the FBI's channel, would be a good example of US-China law enforcement cooperation: "these findings raise concerns about the misuse of user data by PRC AI labs. DeepSeek, Xiaomi, and Moonshot fed conversations between their own models and users into Claude. These labs then used Claude’s responses as training data with which to distill Claude’s capabilities. Some of these exchanges included sensitive information, including from individual users, major multinational companies, and state-affiliated actors. Many of these exchanges were relayed from users of third-party model routing services commonly used by users in the United States and Europe. Those sessions contained names, email addresses, company data, and other sensitive data of hundreds of end users in at least a dozen languages. These practices are likely inconsistent with privacy laws and the labs’ own terms of service."
"Despite years of Western export controls, restricted NVIDIA AI chips continue to reach China. New C4ADS analysis maps those active pathways, including university acquisitions, Southeast Asian transshipment, and the corporate ownership structure behind a $4.6B chip importer already under U.S. scrutiny." https://t.co/fPPSOOGwMm
Once a coder, Jason Carroll now sits atop Hudson River Trading, one of Wall Street’s most lucrative high-speed traders. Here’s how he built the company and a personal fortune surpassing $27 billion https://t.co/Xlo0RxPlHK definitely the richest Sidwell Friends alum
Building global standards. We will advocate for compatible international approaches to measuring capabilities, managing risk, preserving human control, and determining when and how development should slow or stop, even if that means slowing the advancement of model capabilities.
Today's Sinocism - Deflation over for now; MOFCOM responds to US distillation advisory; DeepSeek IPO and new model; Xi-Trump summit https://t.co/6T69NJl8jj Much of the commentary, including about MOFCOM's response to the US advisory on distillation, and the possibility for US-China AI dialogue, is outside the paywall
Caixin - China’s Passenger Car Sales Slump 24% in August "The deepening slump leaves a full-year sales contraction nearly inevitable and increases pressure on Chinese automakers that are focusing more on exports to find a way out." https://t.co/vknlyRDUbv
"China’s leaders continue to behave as though strategic competition remains undiminished...Chinese commentators now describe America and China as being on an equal footing and entering a period of “strategic stalemate.” Like any good negotiator, Chinese leaders do not want to pay more than is necessary to sustain a period of bilateral stability. For China’s leaders, the goal is to buy time and space to strengthen self-reliance, not necessarily to improve relations with the United States." by @ryanl_hass https://t.co/NUJjLHp3f6
Quite the letter from unions and industry groups to Thune and Schumer calling for passage of the bipartisan Connected Vehicle Security Act of 2026 - "Chinese automotive overcapacity distorts global markets and enables pricing that market-based competitors cannot sustainably match. Allowing Chinese automakers, or joint ventures involving Chinese firms, to establish a manufacturing presence in the United States would risk replicating these distortions within the U.S. market." Much more representative of labor and industry than "progressive" scholars telling workers what they should do. The signatories: Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM) American Foundry Society (AFS) American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) American Wire Producers Association (AWPA) Cold Finished Steel Bar Institute (CFSBI) Committee on Pipe and Tube Imports (CPTI) International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM Union) Specialty Steel Industry of North America (SSINA) Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) United Steelworkers (USW)
they do understand "On protracted war" and Xi's vision of "constructive strategic stability" for US-China relations https://t.co/gxgxOoJgRb
uh-oh, there has been a "Dicision"...creative X phishing attempt https://t.co/bOJi2H6vul
The Ministry of Commerce is very unhappy with the NSA/FBI/CISA report accusing PRC AI firms of distillation. A long statement from the spokesperson: A: We have noted the reports. China believes that the US allegations that Chinese AI companies are conducting “industrial-scale” distillation of US models have neither a factual nor a legal basis. This move by the US politicizes and instrumentalizes distillation, a normal technical and commercial matter within the industry, while applying double standards in practice. The US advisory is further clear evidence of its pursuit of technological hegemony and a monopoly on computing power in the AI sector, and its suppression of competition. China firmly opposes this. 答：我们注意到有关情况。中方认为，美方所谓中国人工智能企业从事“工业规模”蒸馏美模型的指控，于事无凭，于法无据。美方此举，是将蒸馏这一业内正常的技术和商业问题政治化、工具化，并在实践中搞双重标准。美方相关公告，是其在人工智能领域推行科技霸权、搞算力垄断，打压竞争的又一明证。中方对此坚决反对。 Distillation is a common practice through which AI models learn from one another. It is inherently a neutral technical method, used by model developers worldwide, including US companies. This method can help models learn more efficiently and make more efficient use of human knowledge. It has positive significance for countries’ development of their AI industries, unlocking the potential of AI technology, bridging development gaps, and bringing benefits more widely to developing countries and the general public. 蒸馏是人工智能领域各个模型间互相学习的通行做法，本质是中性技术手段，包括美企在内的全球模型企业都在用。这种技术手段可以帮助模型提升学习效率，实现人类知识的更高效利用，对各国发展人工智能产业、释放人工智能技术潜力、弥补发展鸿沟、更广泛惠及发展中国家和社会大众有积极意义。 The US approach is a textbook example of double standards. In AI, China encourages open source and openness, cooperation and sharing. Chinese open-source models are available to companies worldwide, including US companies, facilitating their model research and development. Reports on model research and development by US companies also disclose their extensive distillation of Chinese models. Yet the US has repeatedly made unilateral accusations that Chinese companies engage in “industrial-scale” distillation, smearing a common industry practice as an attack. This reflects both US anxiety and its double standards. 美方做法是典型的双重标准。对于人工智能，中方鼓励开源开放、合作共享，中方开源模型向包括美企在内的全球企业开放，为相关模型研发提供便利。美企有关模型研发报告也披露，其大量蒸馏中国模型。反观美方，多次单方面指责中国企业从事“工业规模”蒸馏，将行业通行做法抹黑为攻击行为，既反映了美方的焦虑，又体现了双重标准。 The US approach is a textbook example of pursuing an industry monopoly under the pretext of cracking down on distillation. By having its security agencies issue the advisory, the US is tying the interests of certain companies and capital to national security, and using coercive state agencies to interfere in normal commercial activities. We have noted that certain US AI companies abuse their competitive advantages by imposing unfair terms in user agreements, such as broad geographic restrictions. The US allegations concerning distillation raise suspicions that they are intended to endorse these unfair terms. 美方做法是典型的以打击蒸馏为名，行产业垄断之实。美方由安全部门发布公告，是将个别企业和资本利益与国家安全相捆绑，动用国家强权机构干涉正常商业活动。我们注意到，美个别人工智能企业滥用竞争优势地位，在用户协议中设置宽泛的地域限制等霸王条款。美方相关蒸馏指控，有为这些霸王条款背书之嫌。 The US approach is a textbook example of using state power to maintain technological hegemony and a monopoly on computing power while suppressing competition. Since the beginning of this year, US executive and legislative bodies have frequently threatened sanctions and other punitive measures against Chinese companies over their distillation activities. The aim is to suppress competition and preserve US monopolies in computing power and data, ensuring that only the US can win, rather than humanity as a whole. It turns global AI resources that should be openly and fairly accessible into the exclusive preserve of a handful of companies, preventing other countries from sharing broadly in the benefits of AI innovation. 美方做法是典型的动用国家力量维护科技霸权和算力垄断，打压竞争。今年以来，美行政、立法机关频频发出对中国企业蒸馏行为的制裁打压威胁，其目的是打压竞争，维护美在算力、数据方面的垄断，只能美国独赢，不能人类共赢，将本应公开公平获取的全球人工智能资源变成少数企业的独占资源，阻止他国参与人工智能创新成果的普惠共享。 The large-model industry is currently at a critical stage of technological iteration, recurring risks, and growth and development. As major countries, China and the US should address the challenges and risks facing AI with a positive and responsible attitude. The two heads of state have agreed to conduct an intergovernmental dialogue on AI. China is willing to engage in constructive and professional discussions with the US through dialogue, on the principles of equality, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation. However, if the US takes action to contain and suppress Chinese AI companies under the pretext of cracking down on distillation, China will resolutely take countermeasures. We hope the US will work with China toward the same goal, manage risks through dialogue and communication, and help the AI industry benefit the world. 当前，大模型产业正处于技术迭代、风险迭发、成长发展的关键时期。中美作为大国，应以积极负责态度处理人工智能领域面临的挑战和风险。两国元首已同意开展人工智能政府间对话，中方愿意以平等互利、合作共赢原则，通过对话与美方开展建设性和专业的讨论。但如果美方以打击蒸馏为名，实施遏压中国人工智能企业的行动，中方必将坚决采取措施予以反制。希望美方与中方相向而行，通过对话和沟通管控风险，推动人工智能产业惠及全球。 https://t.co/uJDG3Dxyuk
"“The AGI opportunity ahead should be enormous,” DeepSeek boss Liang Wenfeng said in a transcript leaked in July from a May 2026 investor call. He has described DeepSeek employees as relatively uninterested in commercial opportunities: “Most do not see them as being remotely as important as AGI.” Meanwhile, MiniMax’s chief executive Yan Junjie has told his employees he won’t take a salary until AGI is achieved." https://t.co/y1ogYZYuWl by two of the Americans most knowledgable about what the PRC is doing in AI