브라이언 윈터
@BrazilBrian · 남아메리카
이스라엘국은 남아메리카 섹션의 브라질 관련 언론·시사 보도를 위해 브라이언 윈터를 팔로우합니다.
The day before Brazil’s 2022 election runoff, Carla Zambelli, a pro-Bolsonaro congresswoman, chased a man through a wealthy neighborhood of São Paulo with her gun drawn after he allegedly insulted her. The footage went viral. The next day, Jair Bolsonaro lost by just 2 points — the closest election in Brazil’s history. Some bolsonaristas blamed Zambelli. So, what will happen in 2026? This election is also SO close, Brazil so polarized, that I wonder if it will be decided by another Zambelli — a last-minute image or scandal or fake news or some other wild development. Trying to guess who or what it might be seems impossible.
I spoke to Noam about the fascinating new Vanderbilt Univ survey of +20k people in 21 nations across Latin America, and what it tells us about democracy, economies and immigration. Worth your time https://t.co/fbNiCazlZZ
I have met several members of Brazil's Supreme Court (STF) over the years, and known some of them well. In my opinion, the court's current problems go deeper than any one figure or the lack of a code of ethics, for example. In practice, the STF acts not just as a judicial body, but as the defense of last resort for the interests of the Brazilian elite. It provides insurance against the whims of unenlightened elected leaders, a "moderating" role that the Brazilian military used to exercise but has effectively been taken by the STF under democracy. That's why the STF has powers that arguably exceed that of any other country's Supreme Court. It is the only body that can try congressmen or other protected classes ("foro privilegiado"), and individual judges often seem more powerful than the president of the nation. Some judges told me directly in recent years that they were forced to occupy an expanded role because of the dysfunction of the executive and legislative, especially in the years following Dilma's impeachment. Sometimes I have detected a noble, statesman-like impulse (yes, truly), and I do agree that the STF helped protect or even save Brazilian democracy at various junctures in recent years. But in practice such power also corrupts and that, plus the natural public anger at unelected, unaccountable leaders making epochal decisions, has led the STF to its current juncture. I am not a jurist, so I cannot speculate as to the best path forward, and I recognize for the record that the U.S. court is also under unprecedented scrutiny. But some of this is very sui generis Brazil, rooted in decades or centuries of how power is exercised and concentrated in a few hands, and thus feel it will be difficult to truly resolve.
Lula is struggling with younger voters, especially those under 35 where he is -17% approval. The perils of a candidate who will be 81 on Election Day Overall, he is tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in recent polling. https://t.co/JeWHSL4vAB
I sometimes wonder if the ONLY truly relevant geopolitical story of our time is how distrust between the U.S. and China made impossible any kind of global coordination on AI regulation. Maybe everything else is just a distraction
The shocking thing about Lava Jato was how it touched almost EVERYBODY in the political class and beyond. 10+ years later, surprise, surprise, it's happening again with Banco Master. Core issue(s) still unresolved.
"Keiko Fujimori took office on July 28 with something no Peruvian president has enjoyed in a decade: a functioning economy and the benefit of the doubt. Polls have put her approval between 53% and 60%, with disapproval near 30%. After eight presidents in 10 years, Peruvians are prepared to be optimistic on modest evidence. ... Foreign investors have read all of this as policy continuity, and about the macroeconomics they are right. What that view misses is that Peru’s macroeconomic strength has coexisted for decades with a state that cannot pipe drinkable water into a house, police a neighborhood, or finish a subway line. That gap has been eating away at the country’s politics, and closing it is what President Fujimori was elected to do." -- Luis Miguel Castilla for AQ https://t.co/nSZUo00OGv
Como equilibrar derechos civiles/humanos y la lucha contra el crimen organizado? El caso chileno ha sido interesante, Kast fue obligado a dar marcha atrás con por lo menos una parte de su agenda de seguridad. Hablo de esta experiencia aquí
The Bolsonaros, like others in the global new right including Milei & Trump, have struggled with women voters. Lula currently leads by 9, but his advantage is at risk because of inflation & other pocketbook issues. Can Flávio Bolsonaro capitalize? @traumann writing for AQ: https://t.co/jdssDIiyWF
I believe Secretary Rubio is 100% committed to the cause of democracy in Venezuela, and that President Trump has doubts. That how the secretary manages this issue will determine not just the future of Venezuela but also possibly the next occupant of the White House. The secretary must know he cannot one day go home to South Florida when this is all over with the chavistas still in charge. I personally find him consistently persuasive on Venezuela and acknowledge that, if you support recovery and eventual democratization, this process has gone better than virtually any outside analyst could have imagined on Jan 2. I think the president is more worried about oil prices and his legacy and believes he has a “sure thing” in Delcy. I believe (speculate, based on public statements and reporting) that Trump is still open to Rubio’s arguments but that the worse Iran gets, the less likely he is to upset status quo in Venezuela because in his mind the two are intimately connected. I feel like when Rubio speaks publicly on this issue he is sometimes lobbying his boss. They may both wonder if this is the issue that ultimately drives them apart. At stake is a country of ~30 million but also potentially the Republican nominee for 2028. Anyway, I usually try to be less speculative in my analysis but have found over the years that these personal dynamics are so often what drive the fate of nations — two in this case. Time will tell
Unlike Javier Milei, Renan Santos is registering less than 5% with a month to go, and has now suddenly been passed in polls by an entirely different outsider candidate who even experienced Brasilianistas had to google. “Wait, who??”
I have never spoken in a venue quite like this one. It was a great honor to be in Mexico City, and share a stage with President Bachelet, for the launch of @cepal_onu special commission on Latin America's geopolitical & economic future. Thank you to UNAM and rector Leonardo Lomelí for hosting us as we continue this "road show" of the report we spent 18 months preparing under guidance of @JoseMSalazarX You can see more here: https://t.co/DVKgrRjCvB
Doesn’t sound like a leader ready to cut a deal: A combative Diaz Canel denies recent reforms are capitalist, says state still controls main means of production, blames US for pretty much every problem Cuba has