그레고리 브루
@gbrew24 · 이란 관측가, 핵 전문가 및 반체제 인사
그레고리 브루는 유라시아그룹 선임 이란·석유 분석가이며 『이란을 둘러싼 투쟁』의 저자입니다.
오늘 OFAC 발표에 등재된 러시아 은행 VTB는 재무부에 따르면 "이제 세계에서 가장 포괄적으로 제재를 받는 금융기관 중 하나"입니다. 왜 또 제재하느냐고요? VTB 사무소를 통해 이란과 거래하는 중국 기관들을 위협하려는 의도일 가능성이 있지만, 언론 성명에서는 중국이 단 한 번도 언급되지 않았습니다.
영어에서 번역됨트럼프 오늘(현재까지): -우크라이나와 러시아가 에너지 공격을 중단할 것이다. -미국은 이란과의 합의라는 “개념”에 열려 있다. -유가는 조 바이든 때문에 올랐으며, 이란과의 전쟁이 끝나면 곧 하락할 것이다. -미국은 엄청난 양의 군수품을 생산하고 있으며, 특히 공중 요격미사일과 장거리 순항미사일을 포함한다.
영어에서 번역됨Brent at $109, but the real story is on the physical side. Dated Brent is $122, Murban is $131, Oman is $121. Diesel in the US is $6.23 (which is about $260 per barrel).
FWIW the most notable takeaway for me from the story of the downed F-15 crew is that since early April, the US has relied on standoff munitions (cruise missiles, HIMARs rounds, air-launched ballistic missiles) to strike targets in Iran. There has been very little appetite to send aircraft directly into Iranian airspace. Incidentally, this is part of the reason why there is a "munitions shortage." The US has large stocks of bombs and missiles, but the weaponry that allows it to carry out strikes on Iran from a distance are in short supply, as are the interceptors needed to manage Iranian retaliation.
The document record is incomplete, so we'll never completely know what happened, but following the failure of TPAJAX on 16 Aug, CIA cabled Kermit Roosevelt in Tehran and ordered him to suspend operations. Either they reversed the order or Roosevelt refused to obey instructions. On 19 August, a second (successful) effort was made to overthrow Mosaddeq.
"Trump administration officials have privately told those in the Gulf region that they want to refocus any future US-Iran negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program and not reopening the strait." https://t.co/kxLDjZSZAp
Araghchi just spoke to the Saudi FM and Pakistani chief of staff Munir in rapid succession. Have to imagine both calls are tied to evolving situation in Yemen, where Iran's Houthi allies have made rapid gains. https://t.co/5DnZ5w76yS
I'm honestly not sure my brain could handle an Iranian move to exit the NPT, that would be one thing too many.
Iran is doing precisely what it did after the June 2025 war: it is rebuilding its ballistic missile program. https://t.co/kLn1AZGI52
Iranian production at 2m bpd constitutes a decline of 1.2m bpd. While largely a deliberate move, as export capacity shrinks to nearly nothing due to the US blockade, it means output has fallen below domestic consumption (2.2-2.23m bpd). If sustained, it would suggest Iran may be facing more serious issues at the wellhead. Worth monitoring.
Some major Houthi advances in the last 24 hours, which have not only reversed the gains of Saudi-backed forces but also gained the group new territory closer to the Bab al-Mandeb.
Nine aircraft damaged, one severely, by the Iranian missile barrage on the base in Jordan last night.
Possible the Houthis are gaining the upper hand on the battlefield in Yemen thanks to an AI-generated deep fake.
Publicly, the White House is confident that the US is winning, and that Iran is on the verge of collapsing. Privately, Trump's advisors are preparing themselves for the war to last through the rest of his term--based on the assumption that Iran resists economic pressure indefinitely. https://t.co/kcLaizzSUW
Iranian source quoted here makes it clear regime isn't considering any concessions in the face of US pressure. Iran will continue to intensify retaliations against US attacks. The implication is that Iranian doctrine remains essentially reactive, rather than escalatory (at least for now). https://t.co/NBtRV6MUEH
CENTCOM has acknowledged twice now that Iran has attempted to strike US warships--and that each time, Iranian tankers have been attacked in response. There is no available information to suggest that any of Iran's attacks on US ships have been successful.
The IRGC claims to have targeted and inflicted "significant damage" on a pair of US warships in the Gulf of Oman: DDG-119 USS Delbert D. Black and DDG-53 USS John Paul Jones, both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. To be sure, Iran has made claims like this in the past--though this one seems oddly specific.
The US disables Iran's oil tankers, which it cannot presently use due to the blockade; Iran fires at US bases in Jordan, the utility of which grows more uncertain by the day. The US gradually pushed Iran's economy toward calamity; Iran gradually pushes the global oil market closer to proper shortage; neither knows when it will be accomplished. Iran's leaders speak of the struggle as though it will go on forever; the US, as though it had ended months ago. Hormuz is not open; nor is it shut. The two sides know they do not want a return to full war; they do not have any clear idea of how to obtain peace.
Iran media reporting explosions heard near Kharg and Jask--possibly more US strikes on Iranian tankers anchored there. Notably, Iran mil spox saying that any attacks on tankers will prompt retaliation against US bases.
Iran threatening US military bases if Iranian oil tankers are targeted. Unconfirmed reports that US carried out more strikes on tankers near Kharg today.
US-Iran MOU negotiations, June 2026 https://t.co/AGEVsOLqqc
OFAC sanctioning 27 Iranian airlines and several UAE and Turkish individuals, as "Operation Economic Outcast" rolls on. https://t.co/7DAhbUCvFy
US success in Hormuz may be offset by worsening supply conditions in the Red Sea and Black Sea. Latest data shows a potential recovery in Chinese seaborne import demand. Inventories are far lower than they were in April-May, and while there is supply left in SPRs, a second large-scale release would leave OECD nations with virtually no buffer to weather a renewed disruption in 2027. The numbers are a bit better for the US than they were a few months ago, but it's not a full turnaround. The car is still driving toward the cliff.
Great thread from @ZiadMDaoud on where things stand re: oil and the Iran war.
Trump acknowledges 1) oil prices are high, 2) it's because of the war with Iran, 3) the war has not ended, 4) the US has not won, yet. https://t.co/gcsfqYmu0E
연결된 기사
- Trump Says Iran Wants a Deal and U.S. Is Open to Engage
- Iranian Strike Damages A-10 and About Eight F-15s at Jordan Air Base
- Jordan Intercepts 18 of 20 Iranian Missiles in Renewed Attack
- Trump Says Iran War Will End Immediately After U.S. Midterms
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Tankers After New Missile Attempt on Navy Warship
- IRGC Claims U.S. Warships Were Damaged; CENTCOM Says They Evaded Attack
- U.S. Sanctions 36 Targets Supporting Iran’s Aviation Sector
- Oil Hits Six-Week Highs as Katz Warning Adds to Iran Supply Fears
- Brent Crude Rises 1.3% to $95.91 as U.S.-Iran Fighting Intensifies
- Trump Says Renewed Iran Campaign Will Not Last Long
- Trump Calls Iran Conflict ‘Small Potatoes,’ Agrees With Vance It Is Not a War