모하마드 알리 샤바니
@mashabani · 걸프 및 아랍권
모하마드 알리 샤바니는 이란·이라크·걸프를 다루는 Amwaj.media의 편집자입니다.
No indication that Trump is serious at the negotiating table. Hence these comments can be read as desperation over oil prices, especially if East-West pipeline pumping stations are more seriously damaged than thought. https://t.co/YDAZx3rqaE
The head of Iran's nuclear program was slated to address the IAEA today. The US ordered Austria, host of the IAEA (a UN body), to bar him from entering Vienna. The US energy secretary will be speaking instead. Given IAEA's already abysmal standing in Iran, not a good look. https://t.co/70rKihTiUj
The MoU has clear sequencing: steps X, Y, Z etc and then talks on final deal (incl future of the nuclear program). Trump has failed to implement initial CBMs outlined in the MoU such as releasing Iranian assets let alone lifting the blockade. He appears uninterested in a deal.
UPDATE: Saudi Arabia has requested that Oman postpone the Iran-Iraq-GCC slated to be held in the Sultanate tomorrow. The states reason is the attack on the East-West pipeline from Iraqi territory. Yesterday, Bahrain pulled out, but UAE was anticipated to show up.
NEW: Old News is an initiative by @amwajmedia to connect the past to the present through occasional “reporting” on pivotal moments in West Asian history. This piece looks at the Suez Crisis in the 1950s Back then: Israeli misadventure; Anglophone superpower launches war and ends up losing regional influence; and, new toll arrangement for a vital maritime chokepoint ignites debate on freedom of navigation. Sound familiar?
If there was any accountability, these people would've become unemployed after what happened in Iraq. Instead, they wrote op-eds about attacking Iran in 2026. And you expect them to be held to account now?
As the US faces a perfect storm of rising interest rates, surging energy prices due to the Iran War and a global loss of standing to the extent that even Norway (!) is pondering sale of T-bills, the most remarkable thing is how Americans are so docile. Where are the protests?
The proliferation of Hollywood-style footage of the Hezbollah tunnel complex destroyed by Israel tonight is notable. One possibility is that the footage is intended for presentation to Trump—potentially by Hegseth—as part of an argument for further escalation, including strikes on “Pickaxe Mountain” in Iran. Trump’s reliance on video briefings during the war, and his preference for highly visible displays of military force, are well documented. The timing is also significant. Israel’s strikes coincide with the referral of Iran’s nuclear file to the UNSC, at a moment when the Trump administration needs tangible results from its intensified pressure campaign against Tehran. That combination could create incentives for further escalation. The strategic calculation inside Iran may be shifting as well. Under Ali Khamenei, Tehran ultimately resisted crossing the threshold to a nuclear deterrent. After the events of the past year, the argument increasingly heard in Tehran appears to be that Iran now has no reasons to remain without one.
Everyone got the message except Ali Khamenei. Mojtaba Khamenei is receiving the same message.
A single Iranian hit on a major US vessel would shatter Trump's self-image and almost certainly compel an American escalation. Trump is boxed in and needs to get out before a failed Iran War becomes his legacy.
NEW: Iran-US escalation continues to spiral with Tehran under pressure on multiple fronts: Military: Iranian oil being targeted closer to source Political: Nuclear file referred to UN Security Council Economic: "Air blockade" of Iran being pursued https://t.co/n7fR1DHmpK https://t.co/1b8G1rk0oN
No need to get worked up about the Middle East, we're all apparently going to be wiped out in few years anyway https://t.co/Xm4KJapQji
Ukraine is effectively a great ally of Iran in terms of putting the screws to Trump. Ironically, Ukraine is doing so by hitting Russia, which is in turn supporting Iran partly to get back at Trump for aiding Ukraine.
Two days ago, I told @nytimes: “All signs point to a make or break moment,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of the regional news site @amwajmedia. “I’m not sure the Iranians are going to wait until after the elections to be attacked if diplomacy fails.” https://t.co/O8uORq1oBo
Remarkable that the US military is explicitly highlighting that it's sinking Iranian civilian vessels in response to Iran's attempt to hit a "Navy warship" involved in enforcing a blockade (an act of war).
Severe escalation in the US war on Iran on multiple fronts: - Iranian oil tankers hit again - E3 collaborating with Trump to refer Iranian nuclear file to the UN Security Council - US works towards imposing "no fly zone" over Iran by sanctioning the country's entire aviation sector - Reports of Kurdish militants stepping up operations in western Iran
NEW: If the Iranian nuclear file is referred to the UN Security Council, it would be the first such measure by the IAEA Board of Governors in two decades. The draft resolution is still being negotiated ahead of a vote later this week. Even if passed, Russia and/or China are likely to exercise their veto power at the UN. https://t.co/YstHm8yOQQ
🧵1/ Iran’s energy crisis was already structural. The war is turning it into an acute political crisis. Damage to oil, gas, refineries and petrochem facilities is cutting production and exports—worsening woes caused by subsidies and underinvestment. https://t.co/mmcgw39Xuj
Reupping @almuslimi's sharp writing on dynamics in Yemen, which is again caught in all-out war. 11 yrs ago, MbS used military intervention in Yemen as political stepping stone. If he wants 'Vision 2030' to survive, he can't afford a "Forever War". https://t.co/3AJzax7cRj
Excellent Turkish perspective on how Trump going to war with Iran over uranium enrichment while penning a deal with Saudi Arabia to open the path to the same technology is worsening nuclear anxieties in the region. "When a global superpower applies non-proliferation rules selectively based on shifting political alliances rather than universal standards, it invites systemic erosion. Regional actors with long-standing technological ambitions—most notably Egypt and Turkiye—are closely observing the normalization of the Saudi exception. Once the Saudi precedent hardens into active policy, the moral and diplomatic authority of the United States to demand zero enrichment from other regional states evaporates." https://t.co/LULVwtgf1i
The messaging from Israel and allied Iranian monarchist exiles is that the war is not against Iran; it's only against the Islamic Republic. Putting aside the US bombings of Iranian schoolgirls and weddings, Trump's social media posts demolish Israeli/Pahlavist rhetoric. https://t.co/7AC04tpHKu
Common perspective in Iran
Israeli media's description of the US ambassador is remarkable: "die-hard supporter of Israel who recognizes the power of the tiny Jewish state" Appreciation and disdain in the same breath
Over the past 25+ years, US presidents have made decisions that have marginalized Reformism in Iran. Iranian presidents who've advocated engagement have been undermined. Bigger picture is that US policies have destroyed the socioeconomic base of the Reform movement.
Curious CENTCOM statement on "unprovoked" Iranian attacks: a naval blockade is an act of war. Has Iran concluded that mass-casualty events involving sinking of major US vessels are necessary to force Trump to either get serious about negotiations or leave?
연결된 기사
- Saudi East-West Oil Pipeline Faces Three-to-Five-Week Repair
- Mohsen Rezaei Says IAEA Moves Will Push Countries Out of NPT
- IAEA Board Refers Iran to UN Security Council for First Time in 20 Years
- IAEA Detects Movement at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, Nuclear Work Unconfirmed
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Tankers After New Missile Attempt on Navy Warship
- U.S. and E3 Push IAEA Referral of Iran to U.N. Security Council, Diplomats Say
- U.S. Sanctions 36 Targets Supporting Iran’s Aviation Sector
- Oil Hits Six-Week Highs as Katz Warning Adds to Iran Supply Fears
- Trump Calls Iran Conflict ‘Small Potatoes,’ Agrees With Vance It Is Not a War
- Vance Says U.S. Is Fully Investigating Reported Strike on Iranian Wedding
- Iranian Command Threatens Harsher Strikes on U.S. Warships if Blockade Continues