세스 프란츠만
@sfrantzman · 이스라엘 영문 언론 및 저자
세스 프란츠만은 예루살렘 포스트·민주주의수호재단(FDD)에서 중동 안보를 취재하며 드론과 이란 대리세력 연결망을 전문으로 합니다.
CENTCOM은 이미 수천 마일에 걸쳐 있는 이란과의 분쟁을 겪고 있고, 현재의 평가는 이를 위해 리야드 및 다른 이들과 함께, 그들을 통해, 협력하는 것일 것입니다. 여기에는 많은 세부 사항이 있습니다
영어에서 번역됨Sweeping strikes under the rug: Will Iraq face consequences for Saudi pipeline attack? - analysis https://t.co/sDRE0RBJJD
Yazidi fighters disarm in Iraq's Sinjar after a decade of division - what comes next? - analysis https://t.co/lyo2u5fdOr
As Syria faces widespread protests over fuel costs, Damascus is working to attract investment. SANA: "U.S. officials and business leaders on Monday highlighted investment and private-sector partnerships as a key next step in expanding economic ties with Syria, as a large American business delegation held a series of ministerial meetings in Damascus." "U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Jake McGee encouraged American companies to enter the Syrian market, saying opportunities were opening across a broad range of sectors." “We encourage U.S. businesses to invest in the Syrian market, which offers significant opportunities,” McGee said during a meeting with the visiting U.S. economic delegation.
Another attack on Komala by Iran or its proxies
Remember the attack on Abqaiq It reminds me of that legacy
My long piece on the Yazidis, YBS, and the new deal with Baghdad
If the Houthis can seize these islands in a region where there are hi-tech navies…then does it stand to reason that dealing with the Iranians in the Gulf and their islands is a challenge I mean, one would think, in the era of precision war and satellites that can see down to an inch or something, and all sorts of fancy drones and stuff; including those cool unmanned vessels; that a Houthi amphibious landing could be prevented Or all that tech can’t stop guys in skiffs with outboard motors?
How much are the vile little group of western backers and excusers of Hamas crimes partly responsible for the road to October 7 and therefore the massive war in its wake which had ruined the lives of millions? Some privileged academics and commentators who jet set around and excuse Hamas helped to create the narratives that enabled Hamas to feel that it could get away with October 7 Make no mistake, Hamas follows what is being said about it abroad, its officials that live abroad is very media savvy, think of Ghazi Hamed or Marzouq or others; they communicated back to Hamas that they have the supporters abroad that can whitewash the crimes, that will make it seem that massacring children, women, the elderly, young people at a concert is a “normal” part of war and “Hamas is ready for a deal” and “Hamas wanted to protect the hostages”… A whole system existed to excuse this from day one. That system is weakened but it is still there, excusing the murder of children and families. It was a system that was as watered and grew in western countries; at universities and literature festivals and other places They worship war and adore Hamas and got nurtured for years Had Hamas felt that massacring 1,000 people and kidnapping children and elderly people would result in its immediate destruction and isolation of its leaders and trials and expulsions…it likely would not have done this The Hamas royalty and elites who live abroad felt total privilege that they can murder 1,000 people and there will be zero consequences Their friends on campuses and among some academics and commentators helped create the milieu of privilege
No one can explain the tendency of so many carriers to stop flights to Israel...when flights were flying out of the Gulf most of this time despite the same Iranian threats Something very questionable about the fact that flights were cancelled to Israel for most of the last years. Every time there would even be a rumor of tensions with Iran, flights would be cancelled for six months or a year. What was the reasoning, why did it happen? Not a week when the tensions increased, but it would automatically be six months or a year. Just enough time to get to the next crisis to cancel them for another year.
Why were they displaced? Because of the power politics in Ankara and Washington in 2019 that couldn't sort of an entirely solvable issue; and so instead all these people became victims of a conflict they had no part in, had no choices about...they were just flung into the maelstrom. If there is one reason to be glad Syria has a new government it is this one. Now people can go home. Before, they had to live at the whims of various powers playing power politics. For anyone who says "Syria government bad" and "it harms Kurds"...ok...what was your solution to bring people back to Afrin and Sari Kani and other areas? What were you going to do for the people displaced? Or you were just going to leave them displaced forever? That was your solution? How was having them displaced for generations helping Kurds? For all of those who shout "Damascus bad, they are jihadists"...ok...so how were you going to bring people back to Afrin? What was your plan? Assad? Well he failed and destroyed the country. Was the SDF going to bring them back? Turkey? Iran? Russia? The US? Who was going to do it? This is why the "Jihadist" slander is so bothersome. How is it "jihadist" to have large numbers of displaced people have the right to return home? But it was not "jihadist" to have the Assad regime in control destroying the country and some 10-20 million people displaced? Make it make sense? The fact is some people preferred the Assad regime and wanted endless war in Syria, they fed off it and never cared about average people. That's why if you said "what about the displaced people from Afrin and Sari Kani" over the last years, it wasn't an issue that galvanized people. But the fact is that the current government is far better in terms of enabling this return.
It's entirely plausible it goes on for a decade or more like what happened after the Gulf War. Once one enters a complex conflict, it's not always easy to end it. A number of taboo-like norms shifted with the Iran conflict; and it may not be easy to put the proverbial toothpaste back. Once the status quo became a blockade of the Strait, a blockade of the blockade, sinking ships in a tit-for-tat, and various talk of regime change or removing all the nuclear material or ballistic missiles, and Iran began attacking countries like Jordan and the Gulf; then it's hard to suddenly turn back the clock. It doesn't seem likely that it can end; even if it is dialed back a lot via short term deals. The direct attack on Iran changed the region and will have long-term consequences. The previous conflict, with proxies and other means was easier to dial up and down.
“plans to also build the weapon in Germany and Israel.” Important development of this ecosystem bringing together Israel, the US and Germany Israel has a number of key defense ties to Germany, from IAI’s Arrow and the Lora test; Rafael’s move into potential air defense production at a former Volkswagen plant; the recent delivery of the Drakon to Israel; EuroSpike and EuroTrophy; all of this makes sense as countries seek new systems
Israel's Elbit Systems’ announces FUSE which it says "introduces military-grade autonomous systems built for scale." It says the "One2Many operational capabilities powered by a unified AI operating system enabling centralized coordination of autonomous swarms and distributed aerial and ground formations at scale." Also "FUSE delivers mature military-grade autonomous systems designed for scalable and resilient multi-domain operations, supported by Elbit Systems’ operational experience and high-volume manufacturing infrastructure." This is about "enabling centralized real-time coordination of large numbers of autonomous aerial and ground systems." Many of these systems already have operational hours and are proven. "At the core of the portfolio is Dominion-X, an AI-powered unified operating system enabling One2Many operations in GNSS-denied environments, supported by advanced automatic target recognition (ATR) and homing capabilities." Of the 12 systems they have categorized under this, one of them is a container that can launch numerous drones which conjures up Ukraine's Spiderweb op "A force multiplier for tactical operations, the Unmanned Tactical Force (UTF) system integrates autonomous drone technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), secure communications, and UAS platforms into a multi-drone force capable of mass precision engagement. Delivering rapid response and reduced risk to personnel, the system provides a decisive advantage in combat."
The recent controversies in Israel about warnings before October 7 could have all been solved by having an investigation about October 7, the way the US investigated and documented 9/11. The decision in Israel was made not to investigate basically anything about October 7, so there is no transparent public record, and not even clear if lessons can be learned. A strength of a democracy is in learning from mistakes and having transparency.
The tanker war is increasing
Can I tell a story about October 7? On October 8 we met this team of IDF soldiers in an armored unit; they had arrived after driving all night to the front; they were ready to go to the battle; this crew became one of the first to enter Gaza This was the spirit (my video) https://t.co/D5RaKSh7fy
Were they displaced in 2019? I remember that travesty where the completely peaceful area that was liberated from ISIS and was stable and deserved peace, was then invaded and plunged into war for no reason. I remember how it was all orchestrated. Few people remember the whole story People today might ask me why I support Damascus, and that is why. Because we watched as the US-backed SDF was attacked by US NATO ally Turkey, a completely avoidable catastrophe that displaced people; no western diplomats thoughts to work hard to avoid it and prevent civilian displacement. No one. The new government of Syria has done more to enable people to return home than anyone did for decades The main compelling reason to have a new government in Damascus is to end the endless war infighting and tragedies like that. No more proxy wars, where tens of million of Syrians end up as pawns and have no choice over their fate. No more Hevrin Khalaf tragedies
One is tried to a tree for some reason, another is being hugged in an improper way. Others are being hacked and chained. Is this an allegory? Why does the beaver hut seem like one of those reed huts in southern Iraq
The time to exploit this is now; Iran will want to recover but it must meet a full court press; also in Iraq; on every front
Excellent ; the YPJ is an asset to the security forces and it’s important to incorporate as much as possible the experience of the SDF and the various units As I had written earlier, this was a challenge to figure out but it shows again the pragmatism of Damascus and the YPJ and SDF Keep going
This article could be re-written and replace Israel and Turkey in the sentences and you’d have a very similar article in Israeli media; It’s kind of a mirror image of the Thucydides trap that is emerging although one could argue that if each is doing deference then nothing will happen.
There is this theory that everything in Israel policy is linked to elections, but the reality is that over the last years, policy is also always linked to coalition politics, so after the elections it will all be about coalition issues, until the next elections when it’s about elections If you go back and analyze Gaza policy before Oct 7 or after it’s the same story. During the Gaza war the theory used to be that Israel has to wait until the US elections in November 2024 and then until 2025 and then this or that. There’s no magic wand where suddenly the policy becomes untethered from domestic politics and has some long term strategy ;
Never understood the concept of removing the civilians, but letting Hamas stay. Shouldn't Hamas be removed? In the battle for Mosul we didn't remove the civilians and leave ISIS in charge, we removed ISIS and let the civilians go back and Mosul is a thriving place now. The concept of trying to get a million people in Gaza to leave has been normalized...and the quiet part that isn't said is that it is about keeping Hamas in power, just as has been done since 2007...while making the population of Gaza closer to what it was ten or twenty years ago; it's just an approach that leads to endless war and keeping Hamas in Gaza, to have more wars forever. It would be like keeping ISIS in Mosul and Raqqa, but weakened, and then depopulating Nineveh Plains and Mosul and the Euphrates River Valley, and having endless war. Now...who would want that? I've dealt with people since October 7 who always suggested trying to get people in Gaza to move to Egypt, Somalia, Libya (and then Europe clearly)...and everytime I asked about removing Hamas, they wouldn't respond, or they'd say "Hamas is weakened, not a threat, defeated"...which reminds us all of the mantra on October 6..."Hamas is deterred, Hamas is weak"...it's a cycle. If you have the view that no more Israeli civilians should be massacred and kidnapped, no more soldiers die fighting in Gaza against Hamas...and Hamas should be removed...you're sometimes looked at like some naive idealist "who thinks with their heart, not their head"...the 3D chess is presented as encouraging people in Gaza to emigrate...and just doing the same thing as was done for decades Not to mention the odd fact that the "Gazans should emigrate" people also are those that claim that it's bad to have "empathy" for migrants...they want people from Gaza to move to Europe or Libya...and then will mock anyone who takes them in as being naive and dumb for having empathy and "destroying the West"...which is kind of weird...to encourage people to leave Gaza but then also condemn anyone who takes them in... Also, it never occurs to them that having a million people from Gaza move to, say Libya and then Europe...might not be so great for Israel in the long-term...but hey...3D chess people think that it would be smart to have large numbers of people from Gaza go abroad (the same people that argue that the media shouldn't have access to in Gaza...)... It will never make sense. Because 3D chess doesn't make sense. Removing Hamas makes sense.
Recent headlines in Israel on regional affairs/conflicts Jpost: Katz threatens 'all-out war' on PA over West Bank 'October 7-style attack' terror threat to Israel- Sept. 7. i24: Iran plans regional escalation but is wary of attacking Israel during election campaign, i24NEWS told, Sept. 5. Jpost: An Iranian attack on Israel would release the IDF “from any restrictions,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday during a speech to Defense Ministry employees ahead of the Rosh Hashanah holiday, Walla reported. “We will destroy all national, military, and civilian infrastructure in Iran, including energy infrastructure,” Katz threatened. “We will return Iran to the Stone Age.”- Sept. 3 TOI: Katz: Israel will facilitate emigration from Gaza ‘by any means’ as soon as Trump allows- Sept. 2
연결된 기사
- Saudi East-West Oil Pipeline Faces Three-to-Five-Week Repair
- Iran Claims It Targeted Six Vessels After U.S. Tanker Strikes
- Iranian Command Threatens Harsher Strikes on U.S. Warships if Blockade Continues
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- Jordan Intercepts 18 of 20 Iranian Missiles in Renewed Attack
- Trump Says Iran War Will End Immediately After U.S. Midterms
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Tankers After New Missile Attempt on Navy Warship
- Lower Saxony, Rafael and Aurelius Sign Osnabrück Air-Defense Declaration
- Four Opposition Leaders Pledge Oct. 7 State Inquiry After UAE Warning Report
- UAE Leader Warned Netanyahu of Hamas Move Before October 7, Report Says
- Ben Gvir Unveils Plan for 1.86 Million Gazans to Emigrate in Seven Years
- Katz Says Gaza Emigration Plan Is Frozen, Not Canceled