하비에르 블라스
@JavierBlas · 에너지, 경제 및 해운
하비에르 블라스는 블룸버그의 에너지 칼럼니스트이자 『팔리는 세계』의 공동 저자입니다.
Qatar is in discussions to buy LNG from US suppliers under long-term agreements as the Iran war has crippled its ability to supply its own customers. Qatar used to supply ~20% of the world’s LNG, but its shipments have all but stopped since the Iran war started in late Feb.
BREAKING: Global coal demand will rise to a **record high** of ~8.94 billion metric tons in 2026 (up ~1.2% from 2025), according to new @IEA estimates. The increase reflets the shift from gas-to-coal due to the Iran war and the impact of El Niño weather pattern on hydropower.
Goldman Sachs: Strait of Hormuz oil transits are likely close to US officials’ 8-10 million b/d estimates.
IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva: The global economy has “weathered the energy shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz better than we feared […] Risks to the outlook are more balanced than they were [in April] but still tilted to the downside.”
Japan plans to support the construction of pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. (The biggest step would be when — rather than if — Japan diversifies away from Middle East oil, which pre-war was >90% of its imports. Winner: US shale and Latam oil) https://t.co/8TxCyaC74D
Eppur si muove Iraq, Saudi Arabia (x2), Kuwait oil ports inside the Persian Gulf (📷 from @CopernicusEU 🛰️ Sentinel 2, all from Aug 24) https://t.co/Jp1ZLIHfsP
Joint Iran-Oman statement: “The ministers discussed a phased framework that could provide a practical and viable basis for moving forward” regarding the Strait of Hormuz. It includes the creation of a temporary joint corridor, information exchange, traffic management, and provision of relevant maritime and security services.
(One from yesterday that’s very important when looking at oil and macro) “The world has been incredibly resilient from an energy perspective, and generally from an economic perspective, in handling these significant discontinuities [the US-Iran war]” — Shell CEO Wael Sawan
Long queues have formed at gasoline stations around Tehran as the US blockade triggers fuel shortages, in a sign of the war’s growing strain on the Iranian economy. https://t.co/O3upXCPcnh
“… President Trump’s war on Iran has been a welcome revelation for China, which absorbed one of the most severe oil-supply disruptions of the modern era, demonstrating that years of preparation had mitigated a huge vulnerability.…” — @michalmei https://t.co/adkqwjbKrg
The key remains the oil: as long as Iran can’t export crude (and other than very limited amounts by train and truck, it can’t) everything else is incremental. The US Treasury’s announcement today is more a warning shot of a sustained oil blockade campaign: https://t.co/jUpUdXcg8D
As the US-Iran conflict moves full into economic war fare, a reminder the US benchmark natural gas price is ~$2.7 per mBtu (it’s >$22 in Europe / Asia). Adjusted by cumulative inflation, the American industry is enjoying one of the lowest natural gas prices ever.
It’s a direct threat — but it’s also an implicit admission by Iran that the oil is flowing, beyond its control, via the Strait of Hormuz (despite repeated claims that it has fully closed it).
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said the country should not confuse military and economic resilience. “No matter how strong we are militarily, if the people are hungry and we do not have […] economic growth and domestic production, we will not endure.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for Tehran to end the war with the US from a “position of strength”, as economic pressure fuels debate within the regime about how much further to pursue the conflict. https://t.co/wrxkxr0wOo
The Trump administration is authorizing an early shift to the sale of wintertime gasoline blends, its latest move to blunt fuel costs and supply concerns stoked by the war in Iran. https://t.co/miqMvCIXWP
COLUMN: US President Trump is betting he can break Iran economically and, in the process, achieve the concessions he wants. But historical precedent suggests he’s wrong. Yet, running short of options, economic warfare is probably the least bad plan. https://t.co/3LZSgFe0MX
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir where they discussed the latest regional developments.
US President Donald Trump says there are "no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with Islamic Republic of Iran." In a social media post, Trump adds the Strait of Hormuz is open and all the water mines have been removed or detonated.
U.S. President Donald Trump says that Iran wouldn’t do the deal he thinks it’s necessary (but insist a Iran wants a deal)
The oil products tanker stopped by Iran is Liberia-flagged and India owned. She was following the Iranian-designated route to cross the Strait of Hormuz with her AIS beacon turned, thus clearly visible. The Amara (IMO: 9333280) is not part of the UAE shuttle tankers which are doing the incognito crossings near the Omani coast (and at ~45,000 DWT, she's about 1/8 the size of a typical oil supertanker)
The Strait of Hormuz is a “God-given geopolitical asset for the Iranian nation and this leverage will never return to its former state,” Iran’s Army Commander-in-Chief Amir Hatami says. “We will protect this capacity with all our power,” he adds.
CHART OF THE DAY: An important (and bullish) chart from David Welch at @Vortexa, highlighting how oil-on-the-water is falling very quickly due to a simultaneous drop in exports from Russia, Kaz, Saudi, US and Iran. His full commentary is here:
COLUMN: Is the Strait of Hormuz fully closed? Is it fully open? Neither, but I believe that more oil than is commonly acknowledged is flowing via the waterway. Dark transits are picking up. @Opinion
연결된 기사
- U.S. Officials Say 20-30 Tankers Cross Hormuz Nightly Under Military Cover
- Asian Markets Rise as Oil Falls on Hormuz Reopening Hopes
- France-Saudi Task Force Weighs Omani Ports, Pipelines and Rail Around Hormuz
- Iran and Oman Propose Joint Hormuz Corridor and Mine-Clearing Project
- Oil Holds Near $92 as Markets Weigh Expanded U.S. Iran Sanctions
- Bessent Says U.S. Economic Offensive Against Iran Begins at Dawn
- U.S. Runs Covert Hormuz Tanker Corridor Moving 10 Million Barrels of Oil a Day
- Iran Grants Special Hormuz Passage to Iraqi Oil Tankers
- Pezeshkian Calls for Ending Iran War While Claiming Victory
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Rejects Trump’s Economic Threat, Predicts More Failure
- Trump Declares 'Economic D-Day' on Iran, Warns Any Country That Aids Tehran
- Trump Says No Talks With Iran Are Under Way or Scheduled and Calls Hormuz Open