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Carney Says Canada Studied “Extreme Tail Risk” of U.S. Military Action

Courtroom-sketch editorial illustration of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney standing beside U.S. President Donald Trump, who gives a thumbs-up, in the Oval Office before a framed historic document and an American flag; archival context from their October 2025 White House meeting, not a depiction of the September 2026 interview, rendered in warm ochre and slate-blue pastel strokes.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in an interview published on September 23 that Canada had examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action against the country, calling it an "extreme tail risk" that it would be irresponsible not to prepare for. "That's just risk management. That's not a base case," Carney said, declining to give details. His office said it is the prime minister's responsibility to have every possible scenario assessed and that this is not the base scenario. Carney said he speaks frequently with President Donald Trump and that a mutually beneficial trade deal exists, after Washington imposed 50 percent duties on $28 billion of Canadian goods in August.

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