Ibrahim Jalal
@IbrahimJalalYE · Think tanks & analysts — US/UK
Ibrahim Jalal is a researcher and policy adviser on Yemen, the Gulf, regional security, and transnational threats.
On the eve of 9/11, one lesson endures: take transnational threats seriously before they materialise. The Houthis launched 200+ attacks, sank vessels, seized crews and disrupted Red Sea shipping for years without full control of the coast. Now they claim another ~120km of coastline and the strategic islands near Bab al-Mandab, yet insist the world should not worry. Amid a two-strait crisis and an active US-Iran war, the contradiction could hardly be clearer. A counteroffensive must be internationally supported.
Like Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab is falling into Houthi–IRGC leverage after layered pressure & “withdrawals” from Hays, al-Khokha & al-Mokha War has reversals; the battlefield is fluid Absent a credible strategy, pressure on two of the world’s critical maritime chokepoints is rising https://t.co/rjwlRqS2Vf
The Houthis are pushing hard towards Bab al Mandab. Will there be a surprising counteroffensive? https://t.co/qReXO3ca0U
Exclusive—Pakistan considers hitting Yemen's Houthis under Mecca pact upon Saudi request https://t.co/YGg6gPtJsQ
The IRGC is seeking to embed the Houthis within regional de-escalation frameworks under “end of siege” rhetoric, like Hezbollah. De-escalation should reduce coercive capacity, not legitimise/institutionalise it. The Axis’ cross-border military leverage must be constrained.
The Yemeni Armed Forces eliminated and captured several Houthi militants planning to launch attacks around the Strait of Bab Al Mandab. Houthi intent to control and disrupt the strait remains unchanged amid Iran’s diminishing leverage at Hormuz.
The Yemen clock may be ticking.
The Yemeni Armed Forces, supported by tribal resistance, have reportedly liberated Al-Yatmah, a strategic border and desert area in Khab wa al-Sha’f district, Al-Jawf. If confirmed & consolidated, the gain expands YAF border control and strengthens the advance toward Al-Hazm. https://t.co/9spLcLG21z
‼️Fake account impersonating @spokespersonyem
Somali Al Shabab fighters found dead among Houthi casualties, Yemeni forces say https://t.co/o1WLPiM6yc
YAF has recaptured Hayd al-Khazzan & al-Fulayhan in Al-Bayda, pushing into Al-Nasifah and reaching Dhi Amkhashab. Bayda is now a 5th active ground axis, stretching Houthi reserves & constraining reinforcement across fronts. YAF has absorbed the shock & regained the initiative. https://t.co/RL8BtdDQLR
BREAKING: YAF has recaptured the strategic Al-Labanat base in Al-Jawf, where Houthi local support is limited, social discontent is high & tribesmen will likely resist the rebels from within. These dynamics could accelerate government gains. https://t.co/qIbTVR365e
Yemeni Armed Forces have begun an operation to recapture Al-Jawf governorate. Success would ease Houthi pressure on Marib’s northern flank and the Tihama Coast approaches (including W Taiz), strengthen the government’s strategic depth, and reopen an axis toward Sa’ada & Sana’a. https://t.co/ohCK0T81zk
The Governor of Hodeida is seen in Hays after its recapture. His presence at the frontline is a statement of leadership, courage & responsibility. It demonstrates operational oversight and signals determination to translate military gains into stabilisation & durable authority.
Yemeni Armed Forces declared Hays district, Hodeidah, fully liberated. This secures the Hays axis, opens manoeuvre toward Mafraq al-Udayn, threatens a Houthi reinforcement route into western Taiz & creates options to push the counteroffensive north, southeast and east.
Yemeni Armed Forces retook several positions in Dubas and Suqam, NE of Hays, Hodeida. The GoY is fighting not only for itself, but for Red Sea security. 48 hours, the empire strikes back. Now comes real tests: how prepared is it? And whether it moves from defense to offence?
They told you long ago—only fools failed to understand. Twelve years ago, Aidarous announced his support for Abdul-Malik on September 21, the day of your coup. Only a few months passed before the militia swept into Aden in March 2015. The Yemeni forces know the lifespan of your alliances and the fate of your allies: prisoners, dead, suppressed, resistance fighters, or exiles. History does not portend a different fate for any ally.
Translated from ArabicThe battlefield is shifting toward the southern Red Sea. Houthi gains along the Tihama Coast could reshape control of the approaches to Bab al-Mandab & strengthen Iran’s ability to sustain pressure across two strategic straits. The latest Horizon Brief: https://t.co/599BD581aR https://t.co/1FV6gtrvAZ
The Houthis are almost certainly seeking to expand their Red Sea footprint and control Bab al-Mandab amid intensifying US–Iran tensions. Overnight, Houthi militants launched a major assault on GoY positions in Maqbanah and Al-Kadaha, western Taiz, seeking to sever the Taiz–Al-Mokha coastal supply corridor. A sustained advance here would fracture the GoY’s Taiz–coast defensive network, isolate Al-Mokha and Al-Khokha from reinforcement and resupply, and create a landward approach from which the Houthis could place the southern Red Sea coast and ultimately the Bab al-Mandab axis under greater military pressure, including Red Sea shipping. According to press reports, the rebels briefly seized several positions before a YAF–NR counterattack. The key indicator now is whether they commit follow-on forces and sustain pressure to hold territory: that would point to a prepared territorial offensive rather than a reconnaissance-in-force, attempting to change the map of territorial control (for the first time since April 2022). Clearly, the immediate Yemeni Armed Forces priority is to restore the pre-attack line, secure the Taiz–coast corridor and deny the Houthis any durable foothold from which to sustain pressure toward Al-Mokha and the southern Red Sea.
A powerful testimony on the Houthi transnational threat: “We’ve seen the cost of underestimating the Houthis. We cannot afford to do it again,” @Ndawsari tells Congress Leverage is territory. Back Yemen’s GoV to counter the threat on land & secure the sea https://t.co/Ma8R2RAUd8
The researcher at the Middle East Institute, Nadwa Al-Dawsari @Ndawsari, gave the U.S. Congress a clear Yemeni testimony, in which she unpacked the dimensions of the cross-border Houthi threat, proceeding from the logic of the state and the republic and the Yemenis’ right to live with dignity. Nadwa said what has long been ignored: There can be no sustainable security in the Red Sea as long as the source of the Houthi threat remains inside Yemen, and no prospect of a just peace with a militia that has turned every truce and mediation effort into an opportunity to reposition, rearm, resume the war, and expand its threat regionally, by land, sea, and air. Therefore, Nadwa called on the U.S. administration to support the Yemeni government politically and militarily, and to strengthen its ability to recover what remains of the national territory in coordination with regional partners, affirming that addressing the threat at its roots begins with the state restoring its land and sovereignty, not with managing the consequences of the crisis indefinitely. With rare clarity since 2015, Congress is hearing a sincere and loyal Yemeni voice that expresses the aspirations of millions of Yemenis and understands the requirements of regional security, far from those with gray-area positions. Since the beginning of the war, many people’s positions have changed, while Nadwa Kaiban has remained steadfast; unmoved by the winds, clear in her direction, convinced of the justice of the cause, unwilling to bargain away the state or hedge in describing the “Houthi threat” before the world. Nadwa, and those like Nadwa.
Translated from ArabicCentral Security Agency: CT Unit 22, backed by JFC special forces, eliminated Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari — ISIS spokesman since Aug 2023 and reportedly ISY chief/wali — in a capture operation in wadi Hadramawt. The first publicly reported joint Yemeni–Coalition counterterrorism operation since Jan 2026 signals renewed operational coordination. A major loss for ISIS and its already weak ISY branch. ISIS may now relocate its central spokesman position elsewhere.
Yemeni naval forces intercepted 4 Houthi booby-trapped boats approaching Hunaish & Zuqar islands (the second attempt this week). Sustained Houthi incursions seek to probe Red Sea defences, contest key maritime approaches, secure illicit arms/tech transfer routes & raise the cost of protecting international shipping.
The Makkah Alliance is taking institutional shape. Operationalising the trilateral framework carries significance beyond political symbolism: it could lay the foundations for a regionally anchored security architecture, one that, if passes first tests, could broaden membership.
Looking forward to @Ndawsari’s testimony on the transnational Houthi threat & how stronger support for the GoY can help address maritime insecurity from within Yemen, 2 decades after the Houthis’ evolution from a local insurgency into a consequential cross-border actor. Hence, @AllisonMinor_’s input too!