Michael Knights
@Mikeknightsiraq · Think tanks & analysts — US/UK
Michael Knights is a Washington Institute fellow tracking Iraq's militias and Gulf security.
What did I say days ago? Mokha is probably not the key target. It's Dhubab / Bab el Mandeb.
It's getting interesting to argue who is actually tolling Hormuz. And in a sense who has been profiting from lower Red Sea closure for years now.
Exactly - they're surprisingly bad at attacking any semi-prepared defense; they're serially poor at defending cities and coastal areas; but they would be harder to dislodge from highlands and no Yemeni offensive has ever successfully developed a "second echelon" of forces to exploit an initial break-in onto the centrally massif. The Houthis only still hold terrain because of the weakness of Yemeni/int'l forces, not intrinsic Houthi strength.
A good idea. The winning formula against the Houthis is concentric attack on 6> fronts with air power intervening as needed. The Houthis have never successfully defended terrain, even plateau, under such conditions.
The Al Barh to Jebel Naar corridor is highly defensible. You have highway, flanked by wadis to SE and volcanic foothills to NW. Less obvious than the threat to Mokha, Houthi control of Al Barh reopens their infiltration lines to the volcanic hills east of Dhubab, (i.e., Jebel Umairi), which is a backdoor to Bab el Mandeb.
Something of a pattern forming, to put it mildly. Sudani and Asaib-linked folks regularly targeted. They flew too close to the sun in 2022-2026 and tried to have it all. I think there's still more right-sizing of Asaib to come by other CF factions and the judiciary.
Good leverage if Saudi can activate it, upon need.
Dangerous moment - the militias desperately wanted the PMF law passed to secure their multi billion dollar budget in perpetuity. See https://t.co/gYHgOWOqeX
Released immediately that PMF security got him. A total sham.
The Tadaween Tactical Assembly Area as it was in the Marib battle days of Aug-Oct 2015. Lots of mentions here