Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Enter Brazil’s Vote in Technical Tie, Final Poll Shows

Datafolha’s final survey before Brazil’s October 4 presidential vote put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45% of valid-vote intentions and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 42%, a technical tie within the two-percentage-point margin of error. The poll, released on October 3, interviewed 4,006 people in 122 municipalities. Valid-vote calculations exclude blank, invalid and undecided responses. A simulated runoff showed Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%, also a technical tie. A candidate needs more than half of valid votes to win in the first round.