Brazil’s Market Survey Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast to 5.01%, Trims Growth to 1.85%

The Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus survey, released on October 5, raised market participants’ median forecast for 2026 consumer-price inflation to 5.01% from 4.99% a week earlier. The median GDP growth forecast for 2026 fell to 1.85% from 1.86%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline. For 2027, expected inflation eased to 4.30% from 4.31%, while the 2026 year-end Selic interest-rate forecast remained at 13.50%. The report summarizes expectations collected through October 2. These figures represent surveyed market expectations, rather than the central bank’s own projections or measured inflation and growth.