Firas Maksad
@FirasMaksad · Think tanks & analysts — US/UK
Firas Maksad is Eurasia Group's Middle East managing director.
“Talks this weekend no longer realistic but efforts are ongoing,” according to senior officials. Unclear if the delay in US - #Iran mediation efforts directly impacted by dramatic developments in #Yemen 👀
A new Iran-US ceasefire proposal is on the table. Mediators convene this weekend. Obstacles remain real: Iran’s political fragmentation, and a Trump riding high after squeezing more oil through Hormuz. Trump holds more cards — but Fall refined product shortages could flip the table. More w/@BeckyCNN @EurasiaGroup
US-Iran: stuck in a coercive stalemate till year-end. Expect flare-ups, not war. Iran keeps hitting shipping/US bases to extract a price; the US keeps countering to keep it open. Neither wants a real fight. But the clocks aren’t synced: → Iran’s exports are near zero under blockade. → US “shuttle service” is scaling fast. UAE oil exports back to pre-war levels. Saudi & others up significantly too. → Trump’s own clock speeds up by the Fall, when product shortages get harder to hide. Iran will feel more pain faster, but will it buckle? W/@jimsciutto @CNN @EurasiaGroup
30+ ships are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily. Iran knows its ability to weaponize the strait—and the economic pain it inflicts on the GCC—will diminish over time. The real risk is #Iran choosing escalation, not compromise, as Trump’s economic warfare bites. That’s why the GCC is racing to up defense and deterrence. 👇 https://t.co/CfaY2ErrHl
Economic warfare may be Trump’s most promising path against Iran—but it faces three big obstacles: China: Washington is unlikely to sanction Chinese entities before the Trump–Xi summit next month. Iran’s trade partners: Success requires UAE, Turkey, Iraq, Qatar and Oman to enforce the pressure. The UAE’s recent announcement is a significant step. Patience: Economic strangulation takes time. Lots of it—not exactly President Trump’s defining characteristic. More via @EleniGiokos @cnni @EurasiaGroup
… the governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are now united in their aggravation with the administration. Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory. “There has been frustration from the get-go,” said Firas Maksad, director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at the Eurasia Group. U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, he said, feel they were “unnecessarily entangled” in a war that Trump is now struggling to resolve. Maksad, who has extensive contacts within Gulf leadership, said Trump’s Iran policy is often described in the region as “erratic” and “unpredictable.” @washingtonpost @EurasiaGroup
Re-upping our map of the new Middle East alliances from January, with “Islamic Coalition” vs. “Abrahamic.” Focus on #Iran is short-term. Think bigger, longer-term, with implications beyond just defense. @EurasiaGroup @ForeignPolicy
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