Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe · Europe
Mujtaba Rahman is followed by The State of Israel for research and subject expertise coverage across the Europe chapter.
Le Pen has always feared and resisted comparisons with the AfD just as Farage, until recentlty, shunned Le Pen. Signs of a far right shift in the tectonic plates are welcome for Le Pen but the extreme positions of the AFD alarm even her 2/2
I suspect Marine Le Pen wiil have mixed feelngs about the AfD breakthrough in Germany. Younger far right leaning French voters will be excited. The older voters, who MLP needs to become President in May, will be alarmed 1/
Contextual point given the Saxony-Anhalt result: the AfD has no plausible route to federal power. In France, unless Le Pen radically alters her economic platform (unlikely) she will struggle to get to 50%+1 on 2 May The EU tends to be more resilient than consensus suggests
The two most important takeaways from Germany's Saxony-Anhalt result for France's presidential election next year (ofc they don't map directly): 1/ Far-right parties may have a larger reservoir among abstainers than polls capture; 2/ High turnout need not favour the centre
The top issue for voters in Saxony-Anhalt was the economy. This suggests the AfD is no longer perceived merely as a vehicle for anger about immigration. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD acquired a broader reputation for economic competence, even without ever governing the state
⬇️ The AfD’s victory was principally a mobilisation surge. The extraordinary increase in turnout - from 60.3% to around 76.5% was overwhelmingly advantageous to the AfD. People who had withdrawn from politics did not return to defend the centre; they returned to punish it
Extraordinary result in Saxony-Anhalt - maybe the most consequential German state-election result of the postwar era. Headline is not simply that the AfD came first, but that the CDU has collapsed as the organising force of the state’s politics (from 37.1% in 2021 to 18.5% today)
IFOP makes it even closer: Le Pen 52% and Philippe 48%. Conclusion: a Le Pen victory on 2 Mayis still far from certain. All depends on who trails in behind her in Round One. If it’s Mélenchon, the game will be over. ENDS https://t.co/IauZ7IAGoV
Elabe puts Philippe within five points of Le Pen 47.5 to 52.5%. 12/ https://t.co/rFRw6RzGbg
Elabe, like all polling organisations, suggests that Melenchon would be crushed by Le Pen if he reaches Round Two. https://t.co/BcgpDyuku3
In sum, Le Pen will win Round One but the crucial second place is undecided. Philippe remains favourite and his chances may yet be boosted by polls showing him as by far the strongest candidate against Le Pen in the run-off. 10/
In any case, a more recent poll last weekend by Elabe suggests that the Mélenchon surge has fallen flat (down to 14%). In the most likely Round One line-up – in which Attal drops out and Glucksmann dominates the centre-left, Edouard Philippe leads the race for second place, albeit with a modest 17%. 9/
The centrist and Mélenchon scores also fluctuate with the different hypotheses of who will run best on the moderate Left. Note that the Euro MP Raphael Glucksmann currently outperforms the ex-President François Hollande, who is planning to join the race by December. 8/
An IFOP poll on 24-25 Aug had Mélenchon on 16-19% and Philippe on 14.5- 21%. BUT….the lowest Philippe numbers in both polls are misleading. They depend on Philippe and another ex-PM Gabriel Attal splitting the centrist vote. That is unlikely. They have an understanding that one will stand down by February. 7/
A Harris poll on 18-19 Aug showed Mélenchon rising to 17% support and threatening to snatch the second qualifying position from the centrist former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe on 14 to 19%. 6/ https://t.co/xR5OqUnbAQ
Is Le Pen beatable? Yes but it all depends on who comes second in Round One and reaches the run-off on 2 May. Two polls in recent days have rung establishment alarm-bells by showing a surge in support for the veteran hard left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. 5/
The circumstances in 1980 were very different. Giscard was the incumbent and the French detest incumbents. Mitterrand was promising radical “change”. This year the leading anti-establishment candidate is Le Pen. All the same, it is a useful reminder that early polls CAN be wrong. 4/
Yes they have. But you have to go back 46 years. Le Figaro did a useful deep-dive into previous presidential polls this week. In September 1980 President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was 15 points ahead of François Mitterrand but lost the election the following May. 3/ https://t.co/gatpPfZeju
Three polls in the past month have given Marine Le Pen a 15 to 21 point lead in Round One on 18 April. They suggest that she would beat any opponent in the two-candidate run-off on 2 May (see Harris poll below). Has any French presidential front-runner ever lost from such a strong position? 2/
As the April-May French presidential campaign enters a critical phase, the numbers look good for Marine Le Pen but France may still avoid its first Far Right government since 1944. Here are the three most recent polls - and some history. 1/ https://t.co/ndNMuhr8p2
Pure hypocrisy on Le Pen’s part. A senior RN official, her ex boyfriend, says that, if elected President, she would halt French aid to Ukraine. One of her main rivals Edouard Phlippe says that would be a betrayal of French security. In response, Le Pen denies nothing. She attacks Macron’s record on Ukr and says she would call a peace conference. Sure. On whose terms if France, like the US, stops helping Kyiv?
Marine Le Pen supposedly abandoned Frexit in 2022. Here she seems to revert to her old line... a Europe of entirely sovereign member states. Will she campaign for that openly or hide behind her sophistry of "reform from the inside"?
Marine Le Pen's candidacy in next year's French presidential election is a major problem for France and for Europe, because she is a more competitive candidate than Jordan Bardella, and her program is more disruptive. My latest in the Guardian https://t.co/lYQfRos60y