National Falls to 24.8% as Opportunity Rises in New Zealand Poll

New Zealand's National Party fell to 24.8% in a Reid Research election poll released Thursday morning, while Opportunity rose to 7.2%. Labour led on 30.6%, with voting due to close on November 7. National was down 1.1 percentage points from the previous poll three weeks earlier, while Opportunity gained 1.7 points. The Greens recorded 14.5%, ACT 10.1% and New Zealand First 9.9%. The survey questioned 1,000 eligible voters online from October 20 to 26, using quotas and weighting for age, gender and geography. Its reported maximum margin of error was 3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence. Party support excluded undecided respondents and those who said they would not vote. The seat projection gave Labour 37 seats, the Greens 18 and Opportunity 9, a combined 64 in a 120-seat Parliament. National, ACT and New Zealand First together had 54. Those calculations assumed Te Pāti Māori secured one or two electorates and received two seats. Additional electorate wins, including National winning more constituencies than its party-vote entitlement, could create an overhang and change the majority required. National campaign chair Simeon Brown called the result “out of step” with other polls, including his party's own. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong welcomed her party's rise but cautioned that “nothing is guaranteed”. Christopher Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity, while Wong has promised to negotiate first with the party winning the most seats. A separate poll released on October 27 put National at 29%, Labour at 27% and Opportunity at 6%. That survey used telephone and online interviews, unlike Reid's entirely online approach.