Polymarket’s Israel Leadership Prices Swing After Exit Polls

Prices in Polymarket’s market for Israel’s next prime minister shifted sharply after election-night exit polls on October 27. A snapshot reported at 23:31 Israel time put Gadi Eisenkot at 40% and Benjamin Netanyahu at 37%, narrowing the gap between them to 3 percentage points. Before election day, Eisenkot had stood at 56%, while Netanyahu had been at 28.5% a day earlier. Their earlier gap was 27.5 percentage points. The trading chart showed Eisenkot at around 55% in the hours before polling stations closed, followed by a sharp decline immediately after the exit polls appeared. The late-evening figures therefore showed a much closer contest in the prediction market than the earlier prices had indicated. Other candidates’ prices also changed. Naftali Bennett stood at 9%, compared with 10.5% before election day. Avigdor Liberman was at 2.4%, against 1.7% previously. These figures were part of the same reported snapshot of the market for the identity of the next prime minister. Reported trading volume reached $67 million, compared with approximately $54 million before election day. Both the prices and the volume figures describe that dated late-evening report.