World Bank Forecasts 23% Commodity Price Rise as Middle East War Depletes Oil Stocks

The World Bank forecasts a 23% increase in commodity prices in 2026 as the Middle East war depletes oil inventories and other shocks affect global supplies. Its October Commodity Markets Outlook, released on October 28, projects a 7% decline in overall commodity prices in 2027. “Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, the Bank’s deputy chief economist and director of its Prospects Group. The Bank expects energy prices to rise 32% this year, potentially reaching their highest level in four years. It projects Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027. The report forecasts global oil supply shrinking 5.2% and consumption falling 2.5%. Production would still fall short of consumption, requiring further withdrawals from stocks. Food commodity prices are projected to rise about 10% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, approximately 18% over the two years, amid disrupted grain shipments, El Niño and higher agricultural input costs. The forecasts assume conflicts do not intensify substantially. In an adverse scenario combining additional shocks, the Bank estimates Brent could reach $105 a barrel in 2027 and food prices could exceed its baseline by 12%. The Bank said its existing instruments make $50–60 billion available, including $25 billion in prearranged financing.