Labour Leads National in Final New Zealand Election Poll as Opportunity Reaches 5.1%

Labour led National in the final published poll before New Zealand’s Saturday election, released on Friday morning local time. Labour was on 30.7% and National on 26.4%, while Opportunity stood at 5.1%, just above the threshold for entering Parliament through the party vote. The figures are survey estimates, not election results. The Freshwater Strategy poll put the Greens on 13.0%, NZ First on 12.0%, ACT on 9.8% and Te Pāti Māori on 2.0%. It surveyed 1,044 eligible voters online between October 29 and November 3, with a reported margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Compared with the previous October poll, Labour gained 2 points, National lost 1.2 and Opportunity slipped 0.3. On the poll’s projections for a 120-seat Parliament, National, ACT and NZ First would hold 59 seats, compared with 55 for Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. Opportunity would have six seats, while a majority would require 61. Its support was only 0.1 percentage point above the 5% threshold, within the survey’s stated margin of error. Winning an electorate is another route to parliamentary representation. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said on Friday morning, “I reckon we’ll get there.” She described herself as optimistic and said she still had a full day of campaigning ahead. The poll’s projected allocation left neither established grouping with a majority ahead of Saturday’s vote.