Kasra Aarabi
@KasraAarabi · Iran watchers, nuclear experts & opposition
Kasra Aarabi leads IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran.
Operation Economic Outcast against Iran could force the regime into situation it fears the most. I spoke with @foxnews 👇 https://t.co/RC7HIe2GJE
The photo below of the Iran-flagged container ship—SHABDIS (IMO 9349588) —was taken on 25 Aug in the Danish Straits👇 https://t.co/irbLZ9fgpf
🚨 An Iran-flagged container ship that picked up cargo from Russia (at a port near St. Petersburg) will be crossing the Dover Strait in the English Channel at about 2100 UTC, on 26 AUG. This is the sixth Iran-flagged cargo ship to visit the Russian Baltic since the outbreak of the Iran War. @TomTugendhat @jcartlidgemp @Ed_Miliband @wesstreeting @supbrow @JemimaShelley @UANI
.@SecScottBessent should put Oman on notice. It is now home to many key IRGC sanctions-evasion facilitators—some of whom belong to networks designated under U.S. sanctions.
Beyond China, keep a close eye on Turkey, Oman and Russia. Sources tell me key sanctions-evasion networks and facilitators have increased their activity in those jurisdictions in recent weeks, with some fully relocating from other Gulf nations. Many are subject to U.S. sanctions.
4/ This is precisely why Taeb is back. Iran’s regime may be fighting enemies abroad, but Mojtaba Khamenei is preparing for the enemy he fears at home. The Islamic Republic has de facto lost control of its skies — it cannot afford to lose control of its streets.
3/ This is because the regime’s nightmare scenario is no longer simply another uprising. It’s protests with air cover. Having de facto lost control of Iran’s skies, Tehran must contemplate the possibility of unrest unfolding while US or Israeli military power operates overhead.
2/ Taeb’s mission is not simply to crush protests once they begin. It’s to prevent them from reaching the streets at all. His goal: turn Iran into a North Korea-style surveillance state—more informants, deeper monitoring & greater penetration of society & the state. Preemptive repression. 2/
1/ Mojtaba Khamenei made six new military appointments this month. Yet the most glaring had little to do with the war with the US. Hossein Taeb — the “suppression sheikh” — is back in charge of the IRGC’s Basij. That tells us what Tehran fears most. 🧵👇 https://t.co/az52fCWE03 https://t.co/8jLObR2XOB
Sources in Iran have confirmed to me that the Islamic Republic is increasingly adopting a “look north” strategy to evade sanctions and blunt the impact of Trump’s “Economic D-Day.” 1/
But the timeline doesn’t begin with Obama’s policy shift as part of the November 2013 JPOA. In June 2013, amid crippling international sanctions, Ali Khamenei permitted Hassan Rouhani’s presidency as a tactical, temporary compromise aimed at securing sanctions relief.
Is Russia actively arming Iran’s regime? An Iran-flagged container ship has arrived in the Russian Baltic and anchored near St. Petersburg. It is the sixth Iran-flagged cargo ship to visit Russia’s Baltic ports since the Iran War began👇
Sources inside Iran tell me the U.S. blockade is starting to have a serious impact. I’m told it is not only choking Iranian oil sales, but that disruption to supply chains to China is beginning to cause friction, which in turn is triggering a degree of panic.
The ambassador is correct—in fact, in many ways, the reality is even worse. Oman is becoming a haven for IRGC-linked sanctions-evasion and smuggling routes, with key facilitators and shell companies relocating from other Gulf states to Muscat.
Trump’s fiery line on Oman is a symptom of Muscat’s own reckless behaviour. The Omanis have not only sided rhetorically with the Islamic Republic; Oman is also becoming a haven for IRGC-linked sanctions-evasion and smuggling routes. Muscat is anything but an “honest broker.”
Agree with Miad. It’s also worth noting that many of the loudest advocates for sanctions relief for the Islamic regime are driven by business interests. They stay silent on the IRGC’s crimes against humanity while seeking to profit from a system that suppresses the Iranian people
A combination of maximum economic pressure, military strikes, and strategic communications that speak directly, regularly, and overtly to the Iranian people could be particularly effective.