Timothy Kaldas
@tekaldas · Gulf & Arab world
Timothy Kaldas is deputy director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, specializing in Egypt's political economy.
I've told European officials they shouldn't fear US retaliation for taking real steps to pressure Israel. Under the circumstances, they can convincingly make case to the White House that pressure they apply on Bibi strengthens US efforts to rein him in. Today we have confirmation
Rubio’s refusal to condemn UK sanctions on goods from Israeli settlements is a clear signal that other states can safely join this effort to apply real pressure on illegal settlements that have long undermined efforts to secure peace. VdL & Merz need to let the EU step up & act.
As the MENA region contends with fallout from war, domestic tensions & contestation persists. Many grievances over injustice that sparked uprisings 15 years ago remain unaddressed if not worse. Join our virtual event, Thursday Sept 10 to learn about the state of these struggles
According Haaretz, Netanyahu received warnings of October 7th from multiple sources, including their Palestinian interlocutor with Hamas who Sinwar instructed to give the warning, as well Mohamed bin Zayed, UAE president, & Abbas Kamel, then head of General Intelligence in Egypt
During a school visit by the governor of Qalyubiya, the principal tells the governor she paid out of pocket to get electricity to the school. The governor tried to dismiss her saying, “don’t tell me you’re spending on the state.” So she breaks out the receipts to prove it.
Aside from the risk of endless aimless war and the substantial global economic fallout, sustained strikes on oil tankers could become an environmental disaster in a body of water many countries rely on for desalination to survive.
That said, Treasury claims Golden Global Bank only did tens of millions of dollars in transactions for the IRGC. This still appears to be a very small cog in Iran's financial networks. It remains to be seen if Treasury can and will go after larger players.
Treasury's decision to now target a Turkey based bank may help assuage some concerns in Egypt as to why Egypt's 2nd largest bank, Banque Misr, seemed singled out in last week's Treasury announcement. Some worried it indicated tension or weaker bilateral ties between Egypt & US 🧵
Worrying to see the investigation into Banque Misr spreading, now to its Lebanon branches As I told the Wall Street Journal, the fact that any Banque Misr branches have been targeted by the US Treasury places all of the bank's relationships with other banks under added scrutiny https://t.co/kIX1BMBFmu
Crucial. Prosecuting rivals easier than holding allies to high standard & ending impunity, coercion & corruption that plagued Syria. It requires empowering independent institutions & governing by inclusive democratic means, not patronage & coercion. Rule of law over rule by law.
I’d argue the reverse. In many ways, it’s actually Saudi Arabia & the UAE, who are giving France powerful allies as France & Europe seek to reduce reliance on the US. MBS & MBZ have more sway than Macron over several global portfolios as well as more influence with White House.
This report says Egypt sought quote for 24 new French Rafale fighter jets. During Sisi's tenure, Egypt was often one of world's top 3 arms importers & was in top 10 every year except 2025. From 2012-21 it ordered €12.3 billion in arms from France. The EU combined ordered €12.6b
Hamidreza’s explanation of a crucial & increasingly impactful part of Iran’s military strategy. “This fits Iran’s broader strategy of “debasification”, i.e., making US regional bases progressively less usable & preventing Washington from rebuilding military infrastructure there”
Former Treasury officials I spoke with said that the press release singling out Banque Misr the way it did is not the format if you want to limit bilateral tension. So their language on limited scope seems in tension with the format of the statement. https://t.co/zmuBzjOtLd
Treasury is trying to thread an untenable needle. It wants to look like it's acting forcefully following its D-Day announcement, but has limited options without, as Secretary Bessent said, blowing up the global financial system. They also appear to want to avoid UAE banks for now
Banque Misr is Egypt's 2nd largest bank & state owned. This raises questions on if this reflects on Egypt's standing in DC. Why a fairly small actor in Iran's UAE financial activity? Why Egypt? Egypt & Treasury may want to limit fallout but both know this can still be damaging.
This adds to other challenges for Banque Misr which has repeatedly delayed IPOs for its subsidiaries, Banque du Caire and Misr Life Insurance. Both were expected to be up for public offerings later this year. We'll see how this news affects the timeline & size of those IPOs.
Banks that Banque Misr uses as "corresponding banks" for US dollar business will likely closely evaluate their risk exposure and the value of the relationship. Moreover, customers of Banque Misr, having read this news, may opt to shift funds and business elsewhere as a precaution
Banks often overcomply as part of de-risking to avoid falling afoul of US sanctions & restrictions. It's also often costly to do due diligence on all transactions with a targeted institution & may not be seen as worth it. We'll see how it impacts rest of Banque Misr's business
While Treasury made a point of clarifying that the new measures wouldn't apply to "Banque Misr operations in any other country," risk and compliance departments in other banks/financial institutions are unlikely to ignore this in their dealings with the rest of Banque Misr.
Treasury was a bit bombastic, saying Banque Misr UAE was finding out "the hard way" for being "a critical node" in Iran's access to dollars. This "critical node" only did $1.8 billion worth of business in 30 months, $60 million a month. Iran & UAE had $27 billion in trade in 2025
I discussed with @WSJ new restrictions by US Treasury on UAE branches of Egypt's 2nd largest bank over Iran business. Treasury singled out Banque Misr in a statement but tried to clarify it only impacts UAE branches. Limiting fallout may not be so easy 🧵 https://t.co/tcJLj827sQ
During Netanyahu’s time as Prime Minister, Israel’s standing in the US & globally is at its lowest ever. It’s not a PR problem. It’s a policy problem. Genocide in Gaza & unleashing settlers in the West Bank are to blame & Israel’s opposition leaders seem unwilling to change much.
Excellent explanation by Fouad Debs of key sources of Lebanon’s economic crisis and the steps needed to hold those responsible accountable, provide relief to the impacted population, and rebuild the Lebanese economy and financial sector while strengthening the Lebanese state.
Without substantive political & economic reforms that halt the economic deterioration and political repression while addressing the sources of public anger, the risks of unrest are significant and growing. Another layer of risk comes from Saied's reported deteriorating health.
Connected stories
- UK Announces Import Ban and Sanctions Regime Targeting Settlement Trade
- Bennett Says He Knows UAE Warning to Netanyahu Was Genuine
- UAE Leader Warned Netanyahu of Hamas Move Before October 7, Report Says
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- U.S. Sanctions Turkish Bank Over Tens of Millions in IRGC-QF Transactions
- Egypt Says U.S. Banque Misr Curbs Cover Only UAE Dollar Transfers
- U.S. Proposes Cutting Banque Misr UAE From Dollar System Over Iran Links
- Bessent Says U.S. Will Sanction Another Bank This Week Over Iran Transactions