Ali Vaez
@AliVaez · Iran watchers, nuclear experts & opposition
Ali Vaez directs the International Crisis Group's Iran project.
Told @WSJ: The US can keep grinding Iran down at a manageable cost, while Tehran can shift much of the pain onto its population and protect its critical institutions. Everyone pays, but neither is paying enough to accept the other side’s terms. https://t.co/rpQTPrOpT1
Embassies will reopen, joint drone production company, Pickaxe to be converted into a casino 😂 https://t.co/5aM4QPJakp
Told @AFP: Some see the @iaeaorg resolution as an opportunity to add legal pressure to Iran’s economic strangulation, while others see it as upholding nonpro norms. But ultimately, it is an exercise in futility as 🇷🇺+🇨🇳 will block the UNSC vote. https://t.co/EaGfn1Xnat
I’m 2006, Moscow and Beijing locked arms with the West to police nonproliferation standards. In 2026, the West is firing alone, out of ammo and out of backup, while Iran barely flinches.
Told @washingtonpost that Iran has avoided striking Iran because it brings high costs and no benefit, when their objective is to counter U.S. economic pressure against Tehran by raising energy prices for Washington. https://t.co/vBAdRAPDP1
Told @FT that the signaling out of Tehran is that U.S. increased success in economic warfare against them could also lead to increased resort by them toward military responses.
South Korea pushes back on reports it is readying Hormuz deployment amid US pressure https://t.co/Y5pPyYGhi6
Oman FM: In an age of impunity, diplomats are more important than ever https://t.co/ZGtodUDMSM
If I were hit by a bus and someone leaned over me to ask whose analysis on Iran they should trust most, I’d use my last breath to say: @HamidRezaAz. (And probably wonder about their priorities!) So I’m especially delighted to welcome him to our @CrisisGroup team.
6/ Hence the heightened Iranian warnings, talk of offensive operations, and strikes on ships: An effort to disabuse the U.S. of the notion that the relative quiet can last; that gas prices are no longer a concern; that it retains means and willingness to fight.
5/ Interestingly, the U.S. and Iran are now in somewhat inverted positions: Where Washington previously touted imminent agreements, it's now in no rush. Where Tehran thought attrition worked to its advantage, the U.S. now seeks to flip the script with economic atrophy.
4/ In Tehran, there's a mix of resignation and defiance: Recognition that a poor economy could get much worse, and belief that it can be overcome. Diplomacy continues, but anchored in a SoH arrangement that only works as a bridge back to the MoU or similar pivot to U.S. talks.
3/ For Washington, it's a three-pronged campaign: Operation Economic Outcast pressures the financial channels; the blockade stops Iran's physical trade; and in the meantime the U.S. helps ships transit the SoH and loosen the IRI's grip over traffic.
2/ Since the Islamabad MoU unraveled in July, strikes and counter-strikes have given way to pressure and counter-pressure: The U.S. pressing on the economic front, Iran firing at ships while battening down its hatches over a mounting financial storm.
Six months since the start of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion - and also a month since the last recorded U.S. strike on Iranian soil. After a period of major hostilities, then ceasefire(ish), then diplomacy(ish), Washington & Tehran are now in their own war between the wars. 1/ https://t.co/YtHRHvjBmm
Iranian tankers gather off Sri Lankan coast https://t.co/D8rwtGcKzd
Nate Swanson: Maximum Pressure on Iran Will Fail https://t.co/CjVUWZFgUj
Told @FT: Iran is not a little island. It’s very difficult to impose a hermetic seal around it. Operation Economic Outcast is more of a psychological warfare, aimed at creating a chilling effect. https://t.co/b36Axk6tSo
Such is the commitment to blocking Hormuz that's he doing it in photo shoots...
So shortsighted for the Iranian government to shut down a platform for debate. A government afraid of ideas is ultimately revealing how little confidence it has in its own.
Frustration with Trump grows among U.S.’s Persian Gulf allies, officials say
Iran and Oman appear to be edging closer to a deal on how the Strait of Hormuz should be managed
Told @WSJ: Tehran has drawn a simple lesson from every game of chicken with Washington: Hold your nerve long enough, and America swerves first. Existential threats tend to harden resolve, not impose a price ceiling on resistance.
Told @AJEnews: Iran could raise the stakes by targeting US naval assets or pushing the Houthis [in Yemen] to tighten the noose around regional energy exports.
Connected stories
- Trump Renews Threat to Strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain Very Soon
- Satellite Analysis Finds Record 2026 Activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain
- IAEA Board Refers Iran to UN Security Council for First Time in 20 Years
- White House Says Iran Naval Blockade and Economic Pressure Remain in Force
- Bessent Says EU Has Officially Joined U.S. Iran Pressure Campaign
- Rubio Tells Allies U.S. Is Shifting From Iran Strikes to Sanctions
- U.S. Officials Confirm Navy Cleared Hormuz Median Shipping Lane
- Iran Oil Minister Says Reduced Crude Deliveries Continue Despite U.S. Blockade
- CENTCOM Says U.S. Cleared Iranian Mines From Strait of Hormuz Lanes
- U.S.-Israel War With Iran Reaches Six-Month Mark
- Bessent Says U.S. Economic Offensive Against Iran Begins at Dawn
- Trump Posts Map Labeling the Strait of Hormuz a New U.S. Territory