Mohammad Ali Shabani
@mashabani · Gulf & Arab world
Mohammad Ali Shabani edits Amwaj.media, covering Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf.
The proliferation of Hollywood-style footage of the Hezbollah tunnel complex destroyed by Israel tonight is notable. One possibility is that the footage is intended for presentation to Trump—potentially by Hegseth—as part of an argument for further escalation, including strikes on “Pickaxe Mountain” in Iran. Trump’s reliance on video briefings during the war, and his preference for highly visible displays of military force, are well documented. The timing is also significant. Israel’s strikes coincide with the referral of Iran’s nuclear file to the UNSC, at a moment when the Trump administration needs tangible results from its intensified pressure campaign against Tehran. That combination could create incentives for further escalation. The strategic calculation inside Iran may be shifting as well. Under Ali Khamenei, Tehran ultimately resisted crossing the threshold to a nuclear deterrent. After the events of the past year, the argument increasingly heard in Tehran appears to be that Iran now has no reasons to remain without one.
Everyone got the message except Ali Khamenei. Mojtaba Khamenei is receiving the same message.
A single Iranian hit on a major US vessel would shatter Trump's self-image and almost certainly compel an American escalation. Trump is boxed in and needs to get out before a failed Iran War becomes his legacy.
NEW: Iran-US escalation continues to spiral with Tehran under pressure on multiple fronts: Military: Iranian oil being targeted closer to source Political: Nuclear file referred to UN Security Council Economic: "Air blockade" of Iran being pursued https://t.co/n7fR1DHmpK https://t.co/1b8G1rk0oN
No need to get worked up about the Middle East, we're all apparently going to be wiped out in few years anyway https://t.co/Xm4KJapQji
Ukraine is effectively a great ally of Iran in terms of putting the screws to Trump. Ironically, Ukraine is doing so by hitting Russia, which is in turn supporting Iran partly to get back at Trump for aiding Ukraine.
Two days ago, I told @nytimes: “All signs point to a make or break moment,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of the regional news site @amwajmedia. “I’m not sure the Iranians are going to wait until after the elections to be attacked if diplomacy fails.” https://t.co/O8uORq1oBo
Remarkable that the US military is explicitly highlighting that it's sinking Iranian civilian vessels in response to Iran's attempt to hit a "Navy warship" involved in enforcing a blockade (an act of war).
Severe escalation in the US war on Iran on multiple fronts: - Iranian oil tankers hit again - E3 collaborating with Trump to refer Iranian nuclear file to the UN Security Council - US works towards imposing "no fly zone" over Iran by sanctioning the country's entire aviation sector - Reports of Kurdish militants stepping up operations in western Iran
NEW: If the Iranian nuclear file is referred to the UN Security Council, it would be the first such measure by the IAEA Board of Governors in two decades. The draft resolution is still being negotiated ahead of a vote later this week. Even if passed, Russia and/or China are likely to exercise their veto power at the UN. https://t.co/YstHm8yOQQ
🧵1/ Iran’s energy crisis was already structural. The war is turning it into an acute political crisis. Damage to oil, gas, refineries and petrochem facilities is cutting production and exports—worsening woes caused by subsidies and underinvestment. https://t.co/mmcgw39Xuj
Reupping @almuslimi's sharp writing on dynamics in Yemen, which is again caught in all-out war. 11 yrs ago, MbS used military intervention in Yemen as political stepping stone. If he wants 'Vision 2030' to survive, he can't afford a "Forever War". https://t.co/3AJzax7cRj
Excellent Turkish perspective on how Trump going to war with Iran over uranium enrichment while penning a deal with Saudi Arabia to open the path to the same technology is worsening nuclear anxieties in the region. "When a global superpower applies non-proliferation rules selectively based on shifting political alliances rather than universal standards, it invites systemic erosion. Regional actors with long-standing technological ambitions—most notably Egypt and Turkiye—are closely observing the normalization of the Saudi exception. Once the Saudi precedent hardens into active policy, the moral and diplomatic authority of the United States to demand zero enrichment from other regional states evaporates." https://t.co/LULVwtgf1i
The messaging from Israel and allied Iranian monarchist exiles is that the war is not against Iran; it's only against the Islamic Republic. Putting aside the US bombings of Iranian schoolgirls and weddings, Trump's social media posts demolish Israeli/Pahlavist rhetoric. https://t.co/7AC04tpHKu
Common perspective in Iran
Israeli media's description of the US ambassador is remarkable: "die-hard supporter of Israel who recognizes the power of the tiny Jewish state" Appreciation and disdain in the same breath
Over the past 25+ years, US presidents have made decisions that have marginalized Reformism in Iran. Iranian presidents who've advocated engagement have been undermined. Bigger picture is that US policies have destroyed the socioeconomic base of the Reform movement.
Curious CENTCOM statement on "unprovoked" Iranian attacks: a naval blockade is an act of war. Has Iran concluded that mass-casualty events involving sinking of major US vessels are necessary to force Trump to either get serious about negotiations or leave?
If you're going to read anything about the Iraqi government's campaign to bring weapons of armed factions under state control (and how Iran is approaching it all), highly recommend @mohanadfarisal's deep dive. Exceptional sourcing, clear writing. https://t.co/zrTc2yJiJ2
NEW: It's not just regional countries like Pakistan and Turkiye which are experiencing openings as alternative security providers for Gulf Arab states; Trump may be presenting France with an opportunity to deepen ties, too. by @_Nour_Eid for @amwajmedia https://t.co/GS72CcSOiu
There's a lot of renewed talk about Iran potentially targeting subsea comms cables. Back in May, media affiliates of the IRGC urged the government to assert sovereignty over the undersea fiber-optic cables running through the Strait of Hormuz. The apparent aim is to charge foreign operators for using facilities installed on sea beds under Iranian control. The cables in question—including the FALCON, GBI and Gulf-TGN networks—enable the bulk of Internet traffic, financial transactions and cloud data flowing between Europe and Asia via West Asia. The cables pass through waters that IRGC media described as unambiguously under Iranian sovereign control. The legal case rests on a reading of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). At the narrowest point of Hormuz, roughly 21 nautical miles wide (38.8 km), the 12-nautical-mile (22.2 km) territorial sea claims of Iran and Oman overlap completely, IRGC media argued. In other words, no stretch of the seabed falls outside one or the other's jurisdiction. The monetization blueprint is modeled loosely on Egypt, which IRGC media claim earns between 250M USD and 400M USD annually from cables transiting the Suez corridor. Under the proposed framework, foreign operators would pay per-meter infrastructure fees and licensing royalties to route cables through Iranian territorial waters. Iran would also position itself as the region's primary cable repair and maintenance hub—a role IRGC media say could cut repair times from the current 45-day average to significantly less, framed as a competitive advantage rather than a coercive one. The vulnerability of submarine cable infrastructure to deliberate or accidental damage has been a concern in the Red Sea for well over a year. In Feb. 2024, a suspected Houthi missile strike on a British-owned cargo vessel set it adrift with its anchor dragging along the seabed. Three major cables—AAE-1, EIG and SEACOM—were severed, disrupting roughly one-quarter of Internet traffic between Asia and Europe via West Asia. The Houthis denied responsibility for the cable damage, framing it as collateral to their broader maritime campaign at the time. A second round of damage followed in Sept. 2025, this time to the SMW4 and IMEWE systems near Jeddah, degrading connectivity across India, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates. Again, the Houthis denied involvement. https://t.co/9aXCrZ9EcB
Exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi's main patron: "An Iranian attack on Israel would free us from any existing restrictions. We will cripple Iran's infrastructure, including energy, and send them back to the Stone Age and darkness."
NEW: Very sharp writing by @almuslimi on the situation in #Yemen, looking at both the domestic and regional dynamics. Seems like Trumpian "might makes right" is highly infectious and reversing pragmatism in multiple arenas around the region. "War allows the Houthis to do what they have historically done best: militarize society, suppress criticism in the name of an external threat and portray domestic opponents as collaborators with foreign enemies. Both the Houthis and their Yemeni foes could therefore be persuading themselves that circumstances have changed in their favor. Both, however, may be wrong."
A lot of what's going on in Iran right now feels deja vu, and it's getting harder to understand what's new or different. One thing standing out: Iran is responding much faster, but remains locked in reactive mode. https://t.co/BnLgRJgnFi
Let me get this straight The US is stuck in a war with Iran over 3% enrichment while signing a deal with Saudi Arabia to sell 20% enrichment?
Connected stories
- IAEA Board Refers Iran to UN Security Council for First Time in 20 Years
- IAEA Detects Movement at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, Nuclear Work Unconfirmed
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Tankers After New Missile Attempt on Navy Warship
- U.S. and E3 Push IAEA Referral of Iran to U.N. Security Council, Diplomats Say
- U.S. Sanctions 36 Targets Supporting Iran’s Aviation Sector
- Oil Hits Six-Week Highs as Katz Warning Adds to Iran Supply Fears
- Trump Calls Iran Conflict ‘Small Potatoes,’ Agrees With Vance It Is Not a War
- Vance Says U.S. Is Fully Investigating Reported Strike on Iranian Wedding
- Iranian Command Threatens Harsher Strikes on U.S. Warships if Blockade Continues