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Poll: Ofer Winter Run Would Push Religious Zionism Below Threshold, Opposition to 63

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Courtroom-sketch editorial illustration of a bearded man in a dark grey T-shirt speaking at a campaign event: he stands behind a lectern on a lit stage leaning into a microphone mounted on a long boom stand, his right hand raised open-palmed mid-gesture with a watch on the wrist, a bound book, a plastic water bottle and drinking glasses set out on the lectern in front of him, and a yellow banner bearing a crown emblem hangs on the panelled wall behind his shoulder, all drawn in chalk and pastel

A Midgam Institute survey published Monday evening found that an independent run by retired IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter would leave both his party and Religious Zionism outside the next Knesset. The poll gave Winter's list 2.5 percent and Smotrich's Religious Zionism 2.7 percent, both under the 3.25 percent electoral threshold. In that scenario Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar takes 26 seats and Likud 24, and the Zionist opposition parties together reach 63, a governing majority without the Arab parties. Without a Winter run the same survey puts Yashar at 24, Likud at 22 and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc at 50 against the opposition's 60. Israelis vote on October 27.

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