Dahlia Scheindlin
@dahliasc · Public intellectuals, authors & commentators
Dahlia Scheindlin is a pollster and Haaretz columnist analyzing Israeli public opinion from the left.
UK sanctions on settlements, UAE phone call warning, weirdos on the Likud list - what the heck is all this doing to Israeli election dynamics? Not what you think. https://t.co/LNgiChgIVp
This might have gotten buried yesterday, but I did think it was time to question why Israel's Middle East military actions are starting to resemble Iran's tactics & strategic assumptions that blew up in its face. https://t.co/BgQ97k53Bu
Pleased to be quoted in @RuthMargalit's excellent report on how Israel is responding to the fact that he was definitively, unambiguously warned. Trigger warning: she got Netanyahu's choir to sing for her. @NewYorker https://t.co/GVOIsGln6n
Welcome to Likud!
Translated from HebrewBeyond the horse race, one can learn something very consistent from the polls over the past 3 years. About 40% (between 38-42%) of the public want Netanyahu and what he represents. It doesn't move. Maariv's poll today illustrates this very well, and not only because of suitability for the premiership, but every position related to him, including betrayal from within.
Translated from HebrewIt's high time to stop demanding condemnations, disavowals & declarations on cue. This goes for Israel, Palestine & in general. The hypocrisy is killing me. @haaretzcom https://t.co/VrPpV7vPEA
Serbia's reaction to Mladic's death gave me the chills, for Israel. https://t.co/j2EG7M6GTs
In the last two polls by Midgam + Maagar Mohot, the undecided and swing voters together reach 17-19%!! Friends - that is a lot. Everything is open. Too bad the data usually are not. The end.
Translated from HebrewFor purposes of interpretation, I add to the undecided those who vote for parties that currently do not clear the electoral threshold. Why? Because these respondents move. They support a party that did not exist a minute ago and came from somewhere else, or they will deliberate as the elections draw closer if the party still does not clear the threshold, or the party will unite and they will move to the united slate or somewhere else.
Translated from HebrewA - Since they do not indicate a percentage or N from a sample of about 500 who have not yet decided, there is no way to know how many respondents actually chose a party at all and were included in the seat-projection model—let's assume it is only 450. This affects the sampling error and the electoral threshold, or other closely positioned parties. Above all, it is not transparent, not professional, and gives a distorted picture.
Translated from HebrewOnly three polling companies! Midgam+Mano Geva (N12) presented the raw percentage of respondents who had not yet decided (10.7% in the latest poll). Maagar Mochot/Yitzhak Katz (Channel 16) presented “Don’t know” — which is similar (9%). Rosner presented it, but Jews and Arabs separately; the entire question is not weighted together. Why is it problematic that the others do not present this figure at all?
Translated from HebrewSomething very important is missing from most of the polls sent to the Central Elections Committee: few reveal the number or percentage of undecided respondents who have not yet made up their minds. How someone suddenly decided that this vital detail is not included in the transparency requirement under the law is unclear to me. It is worth noting who did present the full findings
Translated from HebrewAnd as promised, I'm saying something you'll never hear me say again: Polls don't matter. (JK, I love em :) but please understand their limitations at least for the next two weeks re: Israeli elections. @haaretzcom https://t.co/XznfmS70Jn
Preview ahead of a big poll update coumn later today: very short interview looking at where we are now in Israeli politics/polls 2 months before elex, last night on @cnni https://t.co/B7MF4txnza
Friends, I'll be doing a live conversation & briefing with my great colleagues, @JeremyBenAmi & @ilangoldenberg of @jstreetdotorg. Everything you ever wanted to know about Israeli elex at this moment & you will not be afraid to ask. Today, noon ET/19:00 Palestine-Israel time ✌️
Don't tell me Gadi Eisenkot had to come out against Mansour Abbas' statement supporting about peace & a Palestinian state bc of "strategy". Please. https://t.co/AbDpDy3gw6
Yes. Fully consistent w Netanyahu having funneled all that cash to Hamas for years while currently starving PA economically to the point of collapse. Not quite simultaneously but otoh, conscious policy - not some mistake. Quite a contrast.
Kushner & BoP gave Netanyahu a nice electoral win this week at the expense of the future of Gaza. Bc why not? @haaretzcom https://t.co/dgPpdp9Wml
Connected stories
- Likud Secretariat Approves Netanyahu’s Reserved Slate as Avivi Withdraws
- UAE Leader Warned Netanyahu of Hamas Move Before October 7, Report Says
- Eight Countries Back UK Settlement Sanctions and Urge Wider Action
- Bennett Says He Knows UAE Warning to Netanyahu Was Genuine
- Four Opposition Leaders Pledge Oct. 7 State Inquiry After UAE Warning Report
- Netanyahu Orders Lawyers to File Libel Suit Over UAE Warning Report
- Poll Puts Netanyahu Bloc at 51 Seats, Yashar at 23 and Likud at 20
- Mansour Abbas Urges Israel and U.S. to Recognize Palestinian State
- Board of Peace Weighs All-at-Once Hamas Disarmament for Deeper Gaza Pullback