Shmuel Rosner
@rosnersdomain · Israeli English-language press & book authors
Shmuel Rosner is a political analyst, pollster, and senior fellow of the Jewish People Policy Institute.
The refreshing, the strange, the armored, the imagined. 10 notes with the closing of the lists | The measure at this stage, and unless proven otherwise, it seems very difficult to move voters from one bloc to another, even amid a cacophonous flood of revelations, condemnations, appointments, tweets, videos, and tours. The election will probably be decided, if it is decided, because some voters will stay home (or not), or vote for parties that do not pass the threshold (or not), or surrender at the very last moment to an emotion that will sweep over them and lead their trembling hand to a ballot they had not intended to choose (or not).
Translated from HebrewLast year's balance sheet: Like everything else, Israel too is divided into three Israels of three groups: One in six Israelis feels that it was a good year in every respect. One in three feels that the state functioned, at least partially, and that society is in crisis. Nearly one in two feels that the state did not function either. The first ones don't need to move the cheese. They're doing well. The last ones are waiting for the elections with a sense of emergency. Those in the middle are still trying to understand why there is a broken society in a functioning state.
Translated from HebrewWe are in a state of stability. Here is the proof – attached in the chart: In July and August, the measurement of Netanyahu's and Eisenkot's “fitness to serve as prime minister” did not change. Why precisely since then? Because Bennett's union with Lapid came at the end of April. In May and June, the reversal took place in which Bennett kept falling and Eisenkot kept rising. From the moment this happened, and it became clear that there was a candidate for the coalition bloc (known in advance – Netanyahu), and probably a candidate for the change bloc (even if not all the party leaders recognized Eisenkot as their candidate), the public formed a position that fit the new situation, and since then has held on to it, almost without change. Netanyahu has not changed. He is a known quantity. Eisenkot was careful not to make mistakes. Reality also remained unchanged – nothing dramatic – on the scale of a war with Iran – or the fall of the regime in Iran – happened during the summer. Stability on the ground enabled stability in public opinion. Most of the upheavals are artificial – the result of spin that does not move voters – or polling volatility – or organizational changes in the composition of the parties.
Translated from HebrewElection model probabilities for the Index | After 10000 simulations this morning: Coalition majority of 61: 12.26% Opposition majority (without Arabs): 18.87% Change bloc and Ra’am majority (from Trooper-Handel through Ra’am): 47.37%
Translated from HebrewI get the impression that the poll we published this evening is stirring up a lively and heated discussion, so I will make a few comments. 1. Polls fluctuate. That is the nature of the beast. If there is no fluctuation, it is a little suspicious. Ours has fluctuation. 2. When one bloc rises by three seats, the other necessarily falls by three — that is not a “change of 6 seats” (or 4 and 8, and so on). 3. Voters did not move en masse from one bloc to another this week — most of what happened was the realization of votes that had been below the electoral threshold and the result that follows from that (in addition to fluctuation). 4. In general, in this election, voters hardly move from one bloc to another. 5. I do not know how to deal with the claim “strange poll.” A poll has sampling, analysis, and a result. I suspect “strange” is code for “I do not like the result.” 6. You did not like the result? Soon there will be other polls, with a somewhat different result, and maybe you will like it more. So there is no reason to go crazy. 7. Good night.
Translated from HebrewCould it be that Netanyahu’s simple aim is to strengthen Yair Golan at the expense of other parties, because that would complicate forming a coalition for change? Not as a tactic ahead of the elections, but as a tactic ahead of post-election coalition negotiations—that is not an absurd thought.
Translated from HebrewTamir and Shitrit, does the education system need saving? As the school year begins, a conversation about teachers, parents, committees, goals, reforms, theories, ministers, cities, offices, Haredim, and students on our site - audio, video, and transcript - as usual.
Translated from Hebrew“Recruiting Haredim and integrating them into the IDF will not be done through populism but through hard work and building trust… So come on, enough with all this false populism.” O. Winter “There is one solution in Gaza: emigration. An enemy that launches a war against us will pay a heavy territorial price.” O. Winter A question. How do we reconcile the two statements by Ofer Winter that we placed in the headline, and what do they teach us about his candidacy, his plans, and his seriousness? The guide to fighting populism: The Winter edition
Translated from HebrewWhy don’t Israelis know whether Ben-Gurion was right or wrong in the Altalena affair? How can it be that so many Israelis cannot say what they think about such a dramatic decision, one that has been discussed so much? Israelis – if you live here, you know this – are citizens with too many opinions, not too few. But suddenly, precisely on such a major issue, it turns out to be difficult for them. So perhaps that is what “don’t know” means. Some genuinely don’t know, and some know that deep down they think Ben-Gurion did the right thing, but they feel uncomfortable saying so, because the meaning is clear (yes, he was right when he ordered Jews to fire on Jews), or they feel uncomfortable saying so because the political consequences are clear (it would be a political tool that the other side would use as proof of the opposition’s willingness to agree to violent action).
Translated from HebrewThe week’s probabilities. Take them in moderation, because we are in weeks of rapid change that the model handles with a certain degree of conservatism. Probability of a coalition majority (including Winter): 9.27% Opposition majority (excluding Arabs): 30.06% The change bloc and Ra’am (Tropper-Handel through Ra’am): 61.45% More seats for the coalition: 29.95% More seats for the opposition (excluding Arabs): 66.90% Coalition-opposition tie (excluding Arabs): 3.15% Data, numbers, and explanations, as we elaborate, here. You can ask whatever you want, but it is a shame to ask about what already exists on the site—so look through it first, and only then ask. One more thing to state in advance: because of the large number of polls and the frequency of events, this week we made adjustments to the calculation of the index average so that it updates a little faster with changes.
Translated from HebrewAnd this is the ballad of Ari (Winter) and Dertchi (Arden) | The Ari and Dertchi Ballad Index, 2026 election edition. Remember this song, by Danny Sanderson and Kaveret? Ari and Dertchi are two construction workers trapped beneath the paving stones, where they live, and from which they emerge only at night, to tap-dance while the landlady is asleep. That is more or less the situation in our political arena as well: a great many political operatives trapped beneath the paving stones. They come out to dance—in speeches, at launches, in tweets, at conferences. But only at night, when the votes are not being counted
Translated from HebrewThis poll produced an unusual result, and as far as we understand, there is an explanation for it. To hang on the words of a highly authoritative source, I will quote Prof. David Steinberg, who is the index’s statistical adviser and reviews with us every week the numbers used to calculate the mandates: “This is the result of two things: increased voting in the Arab sector due to the parties’ unification into a joint list, and perhaps even more importantly, all the votes (currently) going to parties below the electoral threshold, which lowers the number of mandates required for each seat.” The rest is self-evident.
Translated from HebrewThere were complaints (quite justified) about how difficult it was to find the episode “Was it justified to fire on the Altalena?”. So here it is; you can listen to it in full here, in light of the situation, in light of the discovery, and also because it is (in my humble opinion) interesting.
Translated from HebrewWinter’s potential, Winter’s neighborhood | The given metric that teaches the most important thing about the political significance of Winter’s move concerns the neighborhood in which his audience lives. Here is the rate of openness to Winter according to the party the respondent chooses (or leans toward) today: Religious Zionism 41%, Likud 22%, Jewish Power 21%, Shas 20%, United Torah Judaism 17%. And on the other side of the map: Yisrael Beiteinu 8%, Together 6%, Yashar 6%. Read this line again. Almost all of Winter’s potential target audience sits in the right-wing bloc. This is an audience about which the other side can say the familiar sentence: “We are not interested in how the chairs are arranged on the deck of the Netanyahu bloc.” Winter does not draw votes from the change bloc; he does not open a wide door to voters whom the Netanyahu bloc does not reach even today. He offers Likud, Religious Zionism, and Jewish Power voters another address.
Translated from HebrewThere is probably no better time than today to listen to an old episode of The Hedgehog and the Fox: Was it justified to fire on the Altalena?
Translated from HebrewFor the first time: even in the weighted average of all the polls, Yashar overtakes Likud. Feel free to play with the average as you wish.
Translated from HebrewThe Bungee Jump of Hesitant Right-Wing Voters | Coalition supporters, or voters who lean toward the coalition, are willing to take the risk that their party will fail to cross the electoral threshold at a much higher rate than opposition voters or voters who lean toward the opposition. Put differently: If you want Netanyahu to be the next prime minister, it is harder to convince you not to vote for Ofer Winter or Gilad Erdan, because one of them might fail to cross the electoral threshold (which would make it harder for Netanyahu to become prime minister). And if you want Eisenkot to be the next prime minister, it will be easier to convince you not to take a risk with Tropper and Hendel, because they might not cross the electoral threshold (which would make it harder for Eisenkot to become prime minister).
Translated from HebrewThe statistical model, updated this morning, still does not show a high probability of a majority for either bloc—but it does show an increase in the probability of a majority for the opposition bloc, compared with a decline for the coalition bloc. All this, of course, is before the small merger of the Arab parties, which will probably lower the probability of a majority for both blocs. Probability of a coalition majority: 8.60% Opposition majority (without Arabs): 34.41% Change bloc and Ra'am (Tropper-Hendel through Ra'am): 68.13%
Translated from HebrewThe election model was just updated - after 10 thousand simulations - based on the average of all polls, including those from yesterday and this morning. All of them, all of them. And here are the main results: Probability of a majority for the coalition: 9.16% Majority for the opposition (without Arabs): 25.39% Broad (Likud, Religious Zionism, Bennett, Liberman, Eisenkot, Trooper-Handel, Blue and White): 99.44% The Change bloc and Ra'am (from Trooper-Handel to Ra'am): 56.97% More seats for the coalition: 33.87% More seats for the opposition (without Arabs): 62.29% Coalition-opposition tie (without Arabs): 3.84%
Translated from HebrewMessiah or catastrophe: the suppressed conversation about the future of Judea and Samaria What do Israelis want to happen in Judea and Samaria – what future are they planning when they think about this territory? Two years ago, when Donald Trump raised the possibility of removing the people of Gaza from Gaza, many Israelis (especially Jews) thought it was an excellent idea. If there were no people of Gaza in Gaza, the Strip would no longer be a real challenge. Empty land is easy to manage; it can be settled, or hotels and golf courses can be built there, whatever Trump says. When we measured support for a plan to resettle the people of Gaza in other countries, the support rate was very high – but so was the skepticism rate. Rightly so – the plan came and went like many of Trump’s plans. Foam on the surface of the water, here today and gone tomorrow. What should be done in Gaza? We still do not know how to answer that. And what about Judea and Samaria? It is reasonable to assume that if all the Palestinian residents woke up tomorrow morning and announced that they had decided to move to Uzbekistan – and if Uzbekistan announced that it would take them in – there would not be many opponents of this plan. Everyone would find it convenient (the same assumption can also be applied to the other side: if all the Jews in Israel announced tomorrow that they had decided to move to Turkmenistan, the Palestinians would not stand on the runway to prevent the planes from leaving). Of course, the likelihood of something like that happening is not great. In other words: Israel probably needs to think about the future of Judea and Samaria in the absence of an Uzbek or Turkmen solution. What does that mean? In the JPPI survey for the month of August, we explicitly asked respondents to choose a future for this territory that is a “realistic strategic objective” “in the long term.” In other words, something that does not have to happen tomorrow, but could also happen far into the future. Something Israel should aspire to as a desired goal, so that if it happened, it could feel that the challenge had become no challenge. Something with some feasibility of being realized, not castles in the air.
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