Aaron David Miller
@aarondmiller2 · Think tanks & analysts — US/UK
Aaron David Miller is a Carnegie senior fellow and a former State Department peace negotiator.
There are few compelling reasons why this war can't persist well into 2027. Massive escalation or a deal giving Iran control of straits aren't in cards. The long dynamic of economic attrition is. https://t.co/uYKjAh4nxC
A welocme move; but still virtue signalling. Britian unwilling to sanction 2 Israeli ministers responsible for activities London is opposing. The impact will be negligible; wanted a different government in Israel. Where is Germany by the way? https://t.co/V4GIBuWw7V
.@el72champs Unclear how decisive this recent Bibi revelation will be. Polls have remained really consistent with neither Netanyahu coalition or opposition able to form a government. Could this push enough of the roughly 17% of undecided against him?https://t.co/ifRXCa1jhy
Rising oil prices reflects whatever US operational successes in restoring oil flow through Straits, Trump's war of choice evolved into an Iranian war of necessity w/Tehran more risk ready than ever determined not to let Trump out of box he put himself in. https://t.co/Txb4W48H0b
Trump’s small potatoes remark on Iran war sums up callousness and disregard he holds for public/military service. The war isn’t small potatoes for 18 mewomen killed; not for their families whose lives will never be same; not for thousands of Americans exposed to Iran’s missiles.
Two things are pretty clear. Iran’s willingness to launch against US Navy ship directly reflects new a risk readiness; and US response is unlikely to change Iran’s core calculations. 1 +1 =escalation. https://t.co/oATDAEhQt6
Who said Trump Administration doesn't have a strategy. 😶It sounds pretty reasonable. The question based on its strategic diplomatic malpractice in past, is there focus, leverage and partners to make it work. One thing is clear -it won't work with a right-wing Netanyahu in power.
They can investigate all they want. Six months on -unless I missed it - there's still no US accounting or accountability for US strikes on the school in Minab. It makes sense too for journalists to keep this context front and center.
Iran is playing for time - rebuilding ballistic/drone capacity; nuclear infrastructure; avoiding negotiations on nuclear issue and squeezing maximum leverage on Straits all on assumption US won’t return to full-scale war.
This would be a very heavy lift for James Baker and Henry Kissinger. Wish them luck. But their record on Ukraine; Gaza and Iran aren’t confidence builders.
A must read column @mkoplow @IsraelPolicy4m Israel’s falling stock in US is a result of Israeli policies. Old slogans; victimhood; what aboutism; social media influencers won’t help. Only changes in US policy will. https://t.co/BMuoJFpUR5
6 months in, this US war of choice has turned into an Iranian war of necessity as it rebuilds its ballistic and cruise missiles; and perhaps its nuclear infrastructure.
Trump now believes he’s found a winning strategy- blockade; sanctions; weakening Iran’s hold over Straits. But none of it offers a pathway out; a focus on Iran’s nukes; and risks escalation. Wash, rinse, repeat. The war goes on…..and on.
Fascinating how things change and still remain same. Trump believes he now has advantage and the combo of blockade; sanctions; strikes is a winning strategy and will create an advantageous status quo. We’ll see if Iran agrees.
What we’re watching now is a closed strait evolve into a more congested one. There’s no way out right now since both sides believe time’s on n their side and both, especially Iran believe they have an option to escalate. No reason we can’t be here a month’s time.
That Gulf states in wake of this war could not manage to create a functional alliance and the only alignment emerging was a Turkey added Saudi-Pakistan defense pact speaks volumes about Gulf rivalries, dysfunction, fears.https://t.co/HEFeEr0ALZ
The Iranians are reading this too. Betting if they can weather economic blockade/sanctions too they can outwait/outlast the Administration. Still no stable end state on the horizon. https://t.co/OLI2n8GTGr
If part of Trump Administration's calculations for crushing Iran's economy is to encourage popular unrest and demonstrations against regime, it's a pretty cynical play, given thousands killed by a murderous regime in January. Despite Trump's promise, help was not on way.
It would be fascinating to know how much of that increased flow is Iranian oil. Is the US going after Iranian oil exports to China? https://t.co/HjzBbkPnVA
6 months into the war, Groucho's line is apt - who are you going to believe me or your lying eyes? None of Administration's goals - regime change; recovering HEU; denying Iran capacity to produce a nuke; ending ballistic threat have been achieved - gaslighting notwithstanding
It may well be that this brief is the beginning of an Administration campaign to set stage for an extrication strategy. Standing down on military campaign combined with gaslighting that US has opened up Strait plus new focus on economic pressure campaign.
The cruel irony is had US not gone to war, the Strait would have been open and an economic strategy of carrots/sticks might have led to negotiations to deal with ostensible aim of this war- the nuclear issue. No rewind buttons on history. And Epic Fury leads to Epic Disaster.
This really doesn’t seem to be D-Day; it’s D plus some additional time for offending countries who do serious business with Iran to avoid being cut off from US dollar and financial system. Who are countries that count? China; Turkey; Pakistan; India; UAE. Will US cut them off?
If pursued for months and offending countries will really be cut off from dollar, Bessent’s plan would break lIran’s economy. But will world cooperate. And if they don’t we have a worldwide trade war. And Iran has a vote; and will escalate. Six months in, still no exit.
Eisenkot acknowledges 2 realities - there is no Palestinian state and given fact average length of an Israeli govt. since 1948 is 1.2 years unlikely to be one in short term. But Eisenkot never said there will never be one. No conflict -ending solution possible except through 2SS.
Connected stories
- Vance and Rubio Warn Trump Iran War Could Last Beyond His Term
- UK Announces Import Ban and Sanctions Regime Targeting Settlement Trade
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Tankers After New Missile Attempt on Navy Warship
- Trump Calls Iran Conflict ‘Small Potatoes,’ Agrees With Vance It Is Not a War
- Iranian Command Threatens Harsher Strikes on U.S. Warships if Blockade Continues
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- U.S. and E3 Push IAEA Referral of Iran to U.N. Security Council, Diplomats Say
- Trump Weighs Limited Hormuz Strikes to Block Iran’s Military Rebuild
- IRGC Navy Claims Complete Control of Strait of Hormuz
- Iranian Government Links Diplomacy and Defense, Vows to Resist Sanctions
- Rubio Tells Allies U.S. Is Shifting From Iran Strikes to Sanctions
- U.S.-Israel War With Iran Reaches Six-Month Mark