Sasan
@eghtesadnia · Think tanks & analysts — US/UK
Sasan is a pseudonymous Iranian international-relations commentator.
Does this mean I flew onboard the new Air Force Pezeshkian? 😎😎😎
WAIT... I JUST FOUND OUT THIS WAS ASEMAN AIRLINES' EP-APA 😭😭😭 I flew on this plane to Istanbul a few years ago 💀💀💀
I still miss Air Force Pezeshkian and Air Araghchi 🥺🥺🥺 https://t.co/Ya1cTOwP67
After the previous Iranian Government Airbus A340 (EP-IGA) was destroyed in a US-Israeli attack... Iran apparently acquired a new Airbus A340 (registered EP-IGI) and has undergone testing and its cabin reconfigured into a VIP layout... Its reportedly ready and operational... https://t.co/RgW6A51ocI
If the democrats win the midterms… odds are that Trump’s gonna blame them for the war on Iran not ending 😂😂😂
In an attempt to sway public perception ahead of the midterms... seems as though Trump claims that the war on Iran would "end immediately after the election"...
One thing I personally found rather intriguing was when M. Gen. Rezaei said that Iran doesn’t sink violating American ships secretly crossing the Strait of Hormuz because they are carrying oil and sinking them would damage the region’s environment… 🥹🥹🥹 https://t.co/KI9av8TCqu
Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said some interesting stuff tonight... He says that the Americans must gain Iran's trust for negotiations to continue... adds that one of Iran's major issues with the Islamabad MoU was trusting the guarantees of the intermediaries in the negotiations... M. Gen. Rezaei says Iran is pursuing diplomacy with guarantees... "Iran will only commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the US neither threatens nor attacks Iran" He also reveals that Iran has been selling oil and has been getting the money back to Iran... M. Gen. Rezaei states that the claim that America's economic blockade is the cause of a 'major famine' in Iran is a huge lie... saying that Iran's government had been thinking and planning about this for quite a long time and has sufficient reserves of food and essential goods...
Rumour has it that a Qatari delegation is coming to Tehran for mediation to help de-escalate Iran-US's rising tensions 👀
This was pretty interesting... apparently Iran's Minister of Economy Dr. Madanizadeh has travelled to Moscow... He is set to follow up on several Iran-Russia economic agreements and hold bilateral (and multilateral) consultations... Negotiations with Russia's Minister of Finance and consultations within the framework of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation are on the agenda... Would be interesting to see how much of a role Russia (and other multilateral organisations like BRICS and SCO) could play in helping manage Iran's economic crisis...
Alot of interesting and noteworthy contacts taking place as tensions continue to rise in the region... We had Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaking with his Omani counterpart Badr Al Busaidi discussing the diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating Iran-US tensions... Then earlier this morning, Dr. Araghchi held separate calls with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, discussing the latest developments, specifically the tit-for-tat oil tanker strikes in the Persian Gulf, as well as the diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring regional stability... And then also Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty speaking with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to discuss the events that unfolded, with both parties stressing the need to resume implementation of the Islamabad MoU to prevent further regional escalation... I don't much of a diplomatic breakthrough ahead, but its interesting to note that all mediators are trying their best to prevent the Iran-US tensions from escalating any further...
No statement on this from the Iranian Foreign Ministry yet but still pretty noteworthy if true...
Iran's playing all the right cards of gradual escalation... By striking 6 ships after the US struck 3 Iran signals that moving forward, it would be responding with twice the magnitude...
Intrestingly, Dr. Araghchi's two favourite Badrs (Badr Al Busaidi and Badr Abdelatty) spoke on the phone today... Oman and Egypt's Foreign Ministers discussed the latest regional developments and the mediation efforts to de-escalate Iran-US tensions... https://t.co/1aSUtVcOi4
Right now neither Tehran nor Washington are so keen on diplomacy... and what seems clear is that these tit-for-tat attacks are bound to continue... The US is under the impression that its pressure campaign would subjugate Iran, and Iran's distrust towards the US is further cemented and it won't talk unless the US fulfils its commitments under the Islamabad MoU the two states signed... Pressure campaigns do not yield results when it comes to Iran... we have witnessed this time and time again... the best way to deal with Iran is through dialogue and diplomacy... Tehran's diplomatic options remain open... But Iran could be experimenting its military option of gradual escalation... I think if Iran's military escalation works out in pressuring Washington, we could have negotiations resume by late October... If not, Iran might escalate tensions further to ensure Republicans lose the upcoming midterms... My question however is that how much are countries (especially China and Russia) willing to aid the Iranian economy and nullify the effects of the sanctions...
While we're on the subject of Iranian tankers... I gotta say the emblem on the bows go hard 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/BbzKAluPw5
So Trump was serious about the whole Syria becoming a Hormuz alternative thing? 😂😂😂
So JD Vance said that the US is not talking to Iran unless they stop shooting at ships... And Iran won't stop shooting at ships till the US adheres to the commitments it agreed to under the Islamabad MoU...
The JD Vance press conference was honestly hilarious... and frankly left more questions than answers... JD only proved that the US is NOT winning this "war" on Iran...
In an interesting statement by Iran's Vice President Aref (funnily enough who is the key reformist in the Pezeshkian admin.) says that the Americans should start thinking about stockpiling fuel as "dark months" await the American economy... Aref states that the latest American attack has changed Iran's security equations and defense doctrine... Aref says that from now on Iran's response will be "asymmetrical", "multi-layered" and "depriving the aggressor of security"... It's no secret that Iran itself isn't doing so well economically either... unclear whether Iran has the funds to carry on this path or not... and a sudden escalation of the conflict has its own unpredictable risks... which I don't think rational Iran would like to try out... or at least not now... I think right now Iran is maintaining a good balance between its diplomatic and military options... though again, I am unsure how much longer Iran can carry on this trajectory as the long-term seems bleak... but the overall strategy remains attritional and focused on forcing US back to negotiating table via pressure... But the issue with Trump admin. is that there is no guarantee that they would abide by anything they sign... the Islamabad MoU being a prime example... so what would we be negotiating? In Iran's eyes, any new negotiations would now have to take place on the basis of conditions and frameworks on which Tehran insists... primarily the US returning its obligations under the core elements of the previous Islamabad MoU... Meanwhile, Trump is under the impression that his blockade and economic pressure is working... and isn't very keen on returning to the negotiating table... But many in Iran also speculate that when Trump says he does not need to negotiate with Iran, the reality is not the US displaying strength... but rather trying to hide the fact that Washington no longer has the sufficient leverage to impose its terms on Tehran in the negotiations... So like the "dark months ahead" statement Aref made, Iran is under the impression that oil prices, inflation, energy costs and the electoral impact in the US are in Iran’s favour... However, the main question remains that for how long is the Iranian population willing bare the pressure? But what seems clear is that this tit-for-tat strikes are bound to continue for quite some time...
Iran is a rational country taking rational decisions... whether it can inflict major US casualties isn’t a question, its whether Iran is willing to take an irrational approach with an unpredictable escalation...
Paid a visit to the ‘Minab School’ art exhibition https://t.co/kJ0mj9hk2O
📍 Tehran https://t.co/o611OXUhI6
Awww Dr. Araghchi kissed the hands of his former university professor (Dr. Gholamhossein Zargarinejad) 🥹🥹🥹 https://t.co/XwFlo3cXRd
Qatar's Foreign/Prime Minister spoke to Turkey's Foreign Minister with Iran de-escalation efforts the key topic of discussion... Seems as though mediators are still trying to find 'creative' ways resolve tensions... but the most efficient way to resolve it is right infront of us... Make America fulfill their commitments that they agreed to per the Islamabad MoU that they signed...
Connected stories
- Republican Strategists Say Iran War Is Hurting Trump’s Midterm Campaign
- IRGC Claims It Attacked U.S. Unmanned Vessel Near Strait of Hormuz
- Iran Claims It Targeted Six Vessels After U.S. Tanker Strikes
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- Iranian Command Threatens Harsher Strikes on U.S. Warships if Blockade Continues
- Vance Says U.S. Will Not Talk to Iran Until Ship Attacks Stop
- Brent Crude Rises 1.3% to $95.91 as U.S.-Iran Fighting Intensifies
- White House Says Iran Naval Blockade and Economic Pressure Remain in Force
- Qatari Prime Minister Heads to Tehran for Iran De-Escalation Talks