Trita Parsi
@tparsi · Iran watchers, nuclear experts & opposition
Trita Parsi is a co-founder of the Quincy Institute and the founder of NIAC, a consistent advocate of US–Iran engagement.
A clear and particularly stark pattern we see in the war with Iran is that the Iranians are inflicting tremendous STRATEGIC damage with their missiles, but that the USG denies this at first and only admits it weeks, if not months, later. This creates a PROLONGED false impression that the war is going much better than it actually is and that strategic setbacks are not taking place at all. This pattern did not start with this war. Already, the first missile exchanges between Israel and Iran in 2024 set the stage for this. The media narrative was that Tehran was utterly failing. In reality, Tehran was showcasing capabilities that the official Western narrative ensured were underestimated.
BREAKING: Algeria cuts diplomatic ties with the UAE Beyond disagreements on Israel and Western Sahara, the UAE is intervening aggressively in the Sahel, putting the two countries on a collision course. In 2020, we published a study that revealed that the UAE (and Turkey) had surpassed Iran as the main interventionist state in the region. https://t.co/zWAJygfKmf
Told @PKurzin that what we are seeing now is not Round 3 of the Iran war. It's the prelude to Round 3. This round is likely to be far deadlier than the previous ones. High likelihood Trump will actualize threats he issue before but never exercised... https://t.co/QHnOH01tXq
@WajahatAli had me on his amazing Substack show - The Left Hook - today to discuss the blockbuster by Haaretz that Netanyahu had ignored a major warning by the ruler of the UAE that Hamas was planning an “earthquake” attack on Israel and that Netanyahu had rejected an offer by Hamas the day after October 7 to - without preconditions - release all civilian hostages. You can watch the 30 min segment above, but let me just spell out one of the points I made in the interview: The Biden administration was well aware of the Hamas offer to release all the civilian hostages - and of Netanyahu’s rejection of the offer. Biden administration officials pressed Netanyahu gently to accept the offer. But once Netanyahu rejected it, Biden officials completely shifted and justified all measures Israel took - including blatant war crimes such as bombing hospitals - by pointing to the hostages in Hamas’s custody, knowing very well that a majority of them could have been released on day one. So many hostages died while being held by Hamas - or were held far longer - due to Netanyahu’s decision and the Biden administration’s complicity. Remember, Biden was not passively going along with Netanyahu’s fatal decision. The US vetoed six UN Security Council resolutions and provided all kinds of economic and political support for Netanyahu’s policy - even though they knew that the civilian hostages remained in Gaza because Netanyahu preferred it that way. https://t.co/Htu2gwWr3G
WOW! Haaretz investigation is a MUST-READ! The Netanyahu gov received numerous warnings - incl from the UAE's ruler 10 days before Oct 7 - that Hamas was planning an attack. The ultimate source of the warning was Hamas' own Sinwar. Netanyahu ignored all the warnings and took no precautions. He didn't even convey it to the Israeli intelligence apparatus. But there's more. Immediately after Oct 7, Hamas offered to release all the civilian hostages - without asking for anything in return. The Biden admin was aware of this as well. But Israel wasn't interested, leaving both Hamas and the Qatari mediators baffled. So much bloodshed could have been avoided. So many innocent lives could have been spared. But Netanyahu appeared to have been uninterested - and Biden, of course, never put any real pressure on Israel - effectively allowing Netanyahu to determine US policy. https://t.co/EJUwMiwEzq
One of the issues not covered in the media is how much Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have suppressed oil flow through that waterway... Saudi Arabia Vows Retaliation After Houthi Attacks Injure Dozens https://t.co/UrZiaHch21
For his part, Trita Parsi, the Quincy Institute's co-founder, said that while separatist militias don't pose an existential threat to the government, they "may prove tremendously problematic for Tehran if the war with the US escalates after the mid-terms and the US decides, for instance, to deploy ground troops" "If Trump decides to accept military risks after the midterms that he earlier eschewed, such as deploying ground troops, then it is highly conceivable that the US will seek to use armed militias inside the country," Parsi added. https://t.co/dfQaIucdtk
Back in January and February, Trump was suffering from a highly exaggerated assessment of Iranian weakness, believing Tehran was about to fall and that it did not dare to fight the US directly. It was an assessment that, in large part, had been curated by Israel. I fear that once again, only highly filtered information is reaching him, fueling a similar misperception of Iranian "weakness." Here he is, reposting an article citing Iran's President calling for the war to end. Given the larger context, he appears to be interpreting this as Iranian weakness, that his pressure on Iran is working and that soon, Tehran will have no choice but to surrender. This will compel him to insist on unreasonable demands (surrender), accept unreasonable military risks (land troops?), and fundamentally miscalculate what needs to be done to bring this war to an end.
Volkswagen once produced weapons for the Nazis. Now it will produce them for Israel. https://t.co/rTqiSpujmh https://t.co/0MErcUkVNJ
"The Constitution and the War Powers Resolution exist to provide protection from exactly what we are seeing in Iran: a president waging a hugely costly war with no apparent purpose. For a time, Trump articulated his goals, including a regime change in Iran and the elimination of its nuclear capacity. It is apparent that neither will happen, but the war goes on." - Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the UC Berkeley School of Law. https://t.co/WqhonyGuZp
The Iranian school struck in the war’s earliest attacks is now a memorial for children https://t.co/h4W3X38vLO
QI co-founder @stephenwertheim and I went on the @TomSwitzerMedia podcast. I rejected the notion that the strategic picture is turning against Iran. Rather, it is turning against a peaceful settlement. If the US pressure is successful, it will lead to an escalation, not a settlement. And much indicates that all sides are preparing for a major escalation. https://t.co/oQhYoNnKIl
I just completed our eighth Q&A with subscribers, and I fear I left folks quite worried and depressed. But I was being honest: All signs point to a major escalation between the US, Iran and Israel. And it may very well be initiated by Tehran itself a week or two before the midterm elections. I explained how Iran’s pattern of behavior suggests preparation for that war, including how they are clearing the path for even more effective strikes against Israel. And while the US kept Israel out of the second round of war because Washington feared Israel would escalate beyond what the US believed was manageable, Trump may, in this third round, see himself far more aligned with Israel’s desire for a far larger war. You can watch it here: https://t.co/KXL0zqgvo6
This is the village of Bani Hayyan, in southern Lebanon. It is being blown to smithereens by Israel. The US had signed an MOU that demanded that Israel exit Lebanon. But the Lebanese government seemed unhappy about that and signed its own deal with Israel that would only have Israel leave ONCE Hezbollah was disarmed. It appears the Lebanese government approves of Israel blowing up southern Lebanon in the hope that this weakens Hezbollah. Because weakening Hezbollah so that Lebanon can become a protectorate of Israel is seemingly more important to it than defending Lebanon.
Under Miliband, the UK seems to be moving toward rectifying its errors in Gaza. Action speaks louder than words, of course, but words often precede action. If genuine and substantive, then it must be welcomed. https://t.co/oe75PIhDWT
Bulgaria may allow US aircraft to use its bases to attack Iran. Rehab had threaten to stroke the bases. Bulgarians living nearby are terrified. Residents have collected more than 3,000 signatures against the deployment and held peaceful protests. https://t.co/jSNZDZZsHR
Part of the reason Obama succeeded in getting a deal with Iran was that, unlike the rest of the Democratic establishment (Clinton, Biden, and the rest of the blindly pro-Israel wing of the party), he did not fixate on Iran as the central problem in the region. When you do, as Biden proudly did, you end up justifying increasingly grotesque Israeli policies - including genocide... "Iran had been central to Biden’s thinking about the Middle East, several top advisers said. He’d feared that any public pressure the U.S. put on Israel—any 'daylight' between the allies—could invite attacks by Iran or its Lebanese client, Hezbollah. The U.S. would then be compelled to defend Israel in a regional conflagration." https://t.co/cchG91S0rG
You can't prosecute and convincingly deny the veracity of the leak at the same time... In Major Iran Leak Hunt, Pentagon Polygraph Tests Joint Staff Members About 50 people were tested in an unparalleled inquiry re diminished stocks of munitions. https://t.co/ryunmiVE7c
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute — which advocates for less U.S. intervention overseas — said from his conversations with Gulf officials, “they’re extremely worried and right now the expectation in the region is that either right before or after midterms, there’s going to be a major third round of the war.” He added, “my impression is there is just no receptivity for any arguments for diplomacy in this White House.” https://t.co/Zg7cn8DgD6
About 12 days ago, the US strategy centered on getting Iran out of the headlines before the midterms. Economic warfare was going to make military action unnecessary. Seven days later, the US started bombing Larak Island. There is a desire to pacify the situation, but a lack of discipline to stick to that policy.
Iran may opt to escalate before the midterms to maximize the political damage to Iran. That may succeed, but Iran may miscalculate if it thinks a Democratic Congress will restrain Trump. A humiliated Trump may take military risks he has so far eschewed. https://t.co/e3qR1rxmIY
China is the main reason why oil never went above $150. They dramatically reduced demand. But not to help the US or to undermine Iran. Rather, to secure their own interest, which is to avoid a global economic recession. My interview with @AJEnglish https://t.co/pOcPdWeq7b
Trump faces Iran war nightmare as diesel hits record $5.85 and prices threaten to soar https://t.co/Zyig6hgXNo
Told @AJEnglish that the American position of imposing preconditions for talks with Iran is either rooted in supreme confidence that traffic in the Strait has been restored, or it signals complete strategic disarray, with the US continually changing tactics and policies. https://t.co/JMPTxaaYGt
Wow! Navigator Poll shows one-in-five Trump 2024 voters now regret their choice. Main reason? The Iran war. "Nearly half (45%) cite the war with Iran as a main reason for regret" Trump should stop listening to those who pushed him to start this war. https://t.co/rdRMeD4yBZ
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