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Israeli Defense Officials Reportedly See Iran Adapting for Another Round of Fighting

Israeli defense officials reportedly assess that Iran learned from Israeli and American operations during the fighting and changed its methods while the campaign was still under way. Israel continues preparing for another possible confrontation, maintaining readiness and pursuing additional aircraft procurement after reviewing lessons from Operation Roaring Lion. The officials assess that Iranian forces identified operating patterns and adjusted their responses to almost every Israeli move. Israeli planners consequently expect a future round, if one occurs, to develop differently from previous fighting. Their preference is for a short, intensive campaign, while acknowledging uncertainty about how a war would unfold. They consider an Iranian attempt to challenge Israeli and American combat aircraft in the air unlikely, expecting Tehran instead to rely on missiles and air defenses. The reported assessment places cooperation with the United States at the center of preparations. Israeli officials also consider Israel's particular operational and intelligence capabilities important to the Americans in a potential joint campaign. The officials reject claims that Operation Roaring Lion failed to meet its defined objectives, assessing that it set back Iran's nuclear project. They nevertheless identify enriched material remaining in Iran as an unresolved issue. Israeli and other Western intelligence assessments cited in the report put the stockpile at approximately 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. They assess that its location is known and monitoring continues; Israeli officials consider its eventual removal necessary, whether through an agreement or another measure.

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Courtroom-sketch editorial illustration of two Israeli F-35 aircraft above clouds in an archival 2016 delivery-flight view, used as military aviation context

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