Sal Mercogliano
@mercoglianos · OSINT & conflict tracking
Sal Mercogliano is a maritime historian whose analyses of attacks on shipping became a wartime reference.
Crippled Bahri - Sidr - VLCC is under tow 🚢Immobilised tanker hit 10 days ago laden with 2m barrels of crude oil 🚢Megatugs recently deployed tug Giant to Fujairah to better respond to casualties in Hormuz 🚢Salvir has also deployed a tug to Black Sea danger zone https://t.co/Kd4pmnfI2y
Escalating Middle East tensions raise supply anxieties in Asia bunker markets 🚢Bunker market players are increasingly concerned about constrained supplies as more attacks continue, limiting Hormuz transits 🚢Chinese demand rose briefly this week as buyers look to snap up cargoes to limit exposures to steep gains in crude futures 🚢Middle East Gulf ports are also facing shortages, with exports out of the region uncertain https://t.co/9OaFjHhPOv
Samir Madani of @TankerTrackers is joining What's Going on With Shipping on Wednesday, September 9 to discuss: ⚓️How much oil is coming out of the Strait of Hormuz ⚓️Competing dark fleets of the U.S., Russia and Iran ⚓️The founding of Tanker Trackers https://t.co/ADTsW43FHb
Iran proposes Hormuz shipping corridor as tanker war with US escalates ⚓️Tehran says it will soon sign an agreement with Oman establishing a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz ⚓️IMO is yet to receive any official proposal ⚓️Announcement follows US strikes on three Iran-linked tankers after Iranian missile attacks on US warships, marking a significant escalation in the maritime conflict https://t.co/VY3Dd9GpVA
Iran Says to Announce New Restricted Zone in the Gulf in the Coming Days https://t.co/Of1ai4bPUS
Red Sea Coastal Battles Intensify Raising New Concerns for Shipping https://t.co/7VlLAKLmgX #maritime #maritime-news
20 empty Iran-flagged tankers are currently loitering off Sri Lanka—namely, STREAM, HALTI, DREAM II, HERO II, SILVIA I, SEA CLIFF, SNOW, HELM, DIAMOND II, DEEP SEA, DUNE, DINO I, SONIA I, HERBY, SEVIN, AMBER, HENNA, FELICITY, HUGE, and DORE. From August 23, most of these Iran-flagged tankers departed the Galle anchorage and started loitering within the vicinity of Sri Lanka. The impact of the blockade is preventing the return of these ships to Iran. There are 7 Iran-flagged tankers currently in the Eastern Outer Port Limits anchorage (EOPL) off Malaysia: HUMANITY, STARLA, HILDA I, DAN, HAPPINESS I, HEDY, and DORENA, which have either offloaded or waiting to conduct ship-to-ship transfers. Source: @UANI
War Risk Claims Top $2 Billion as Shipping Attacks Spread Beyond Hormuz “There have been around $2 billion in war risk claims since the outbreak of the fighting in the Middle East, with over 70 claims to date,” explained David Osler, Law & Marine Insurance Editor at Lloyd’s List. “This will be offset by heavily enhanced premium income. I think it’s exceeded only by payouts on the container ship that brought down the bridge in Baltimore in 2024....Roughly $7 or $8 on the price of a barrel of crude is now tied to war risk insurance...Rates have fluctuated with political developments, but they’re currently sitting as high as 10% of hull value.” https://t.co/cQSwCXsAoM
Hormuz-related force majeure declarations could create unprecedented chaos ⚓️Middle East Gulf facilities have been implicated by the Hormuz crisis, causing major commodity producers to halt production and declare force majeure with restarts set to take a while ⚓Off-takers of gulf-origin cargoes may face challenges from their downstream customers on force majeure claims, with continued Hormuz transits ⚓Bad actors could look to exploit the Hormuz crisis to get out of contractual obligations even if they might not be directly implicated https://t.co/e2jQFAu8Zb
Latest release by @CENTCOM shows disabling strikes against two Iranian tankers, following Iran's attack on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Both strikes appear to be disabling hits against the steering compartment on the aft end of the ship. The ship on the left may be the tanker Hasna. Not sure about the identity of the one on the right. Hasna is a 23 year old, 300k ton, 333 meter (1095 foot) crude oil tanker anchored off Bandar Abbas.
How does Bessent not understand the spike in oil prices? 5 attacks this week against tankers in the Strait by Iran.
So, our choice for frigates is Turkey; or two countries within the missile envelope of China and don't build warships at a scale that the U.S. needs.
U.S. Strikes Iran as Tanker Attacks Raise Stakes in Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/cBvQTTRDc7
Tanker struck by projectile in Strait of Hormuz as Iran claims mine attack on VLCC ⚓️A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman on August 29; no casualties were reported, but the Strait of Hormuz remains at a ‘severe’ threat level, with traffic far below normal ⚓️Iran’s IRGC said a very large crude carrier was struck by two naval mines and caught fire in the strait on Monday ⚓️The US struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, its first strikes on Iran since late July; Iran retaliated with missiles and drones against two air bases in Jordan ⚓️Washington says the strait is open under US naval protection; Tehran insists it remains closed and accuses US officials of manipulating energy markets https://t.co/CvEbIa8P8d
Sinokor VLCC struck three times in Strait of Hormuz Iran continues to hit vessels in the Strait of Hormuz while another US interdiction looks likely in the Indian Ocean https://t.co/MD4EC1lDGh
CENTCOM Says Iran Attempts to Intimidate Shipping with False Reports https://t.co/Dn8XKeQNUu #maritime #maritime-news
🚨Four Attacks in Hormuz🚨 https://t.co/fQfJbCGpc0
Okay...that is not USNS Henry J. Kaiser (T-AO 187). That is one of the three T-AKE combat stores ships - Alan Shepard, Cesar Chavez or Wally Schirra - that are sustaining the naval forces in the Arabian Sea. The helicopters are part of a detachment off one of the T-AKE and are also civilian crewed - AS-332 Super Pumas.
Kpler has been continually updating its data as ships appear outside the Strait. This had not been a secret to those who understand what data was available and how they were generating their data. The US shuttle operation via the Oman channel creates difficulty since ships are conducting ship to ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The chart provided needs the following context. Pre-war flow out of the Persian Gulf was 20 Mbpd and 3 Mbpd by the Fujariah/Yanbu pipelines. We can see from the chart that on or about 6 July, oil exceeded the pre-war levels. However, during the period of the chart, the 7-day average fluctuates between 10 and 15 Mbpd versus 23. The chart does not include Yanbu and it does not break up Iranian oil from the rest of the Gulf states. This reduction in Persian Gulf flow coincided with a significant reduction in consumption. The issue will be as consumption rises again, will the reduction in global stocks, due to the loss of oil during the first months of the conflict, have an impact on prices.
Question for @US5thFleet and @CMF_Bahrain, how is this happening? What presence - aerial or surface - does the US and Gulf States have in the Strait of Hormuz to counter an Iranian boat with a searchlight? If the Iranians can relay identies and positions, they can launch attacks from anywhere along the coast or in the interior of Iran. Also, why do we not have secure comms and liaisons embarked on the transiting ships to provide real time intelligence? This is the same tactic used by Houthis in the Red Sea.
How Hormuz crisis effect on product tankers diverged from crude ⚓️MR product tanker rates have been back at normal levels for months, and only saw a transitory spike due to a jump in long-haul Atlantic-to-Pacific flows in March-April ⚓️With lower global crude supply, refineries are more focused on serving domestic demand, limiting clean products exports available for arbitrage trades ⚓️Further expansion of Hormuz shuttle trade to include more LR2s would boost long-range product tankers, which are already benefitting from more LR2s ‘going dirty’ https://t.co/eJCgym2CF4
I am curious why @EUNAVFORASPIDES finds it necessary to remove ship names and company ids from the ships they are escorting.
Greek-owned tanker hit in Strait of Hormuz: The tanker’s engine room was damaged and the vessel disabled by the attack https://t.co/enbjWOzDLP
Iran's Floating Oil Storage Shrinks to Five-Month Supply https://t.co/0TgvHz27Pu #maritime #maritime-news
Tanker Hit and Disabled Near Strait of Hormuz "The strike adds to a long tally of damaging attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf. The IMO counts a total of 68 incidents since the conflict in the Gulf began six months ago, averaging about three casualties a week. At least 20 seafarers have been killed, 35 have been wounded and one remains missing, by IMO's assessment." https://t.co/VxkwldH5rD #maritime #maritime-news
Connected stories
- U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Oil Tankers After IRGC Targets Navy Warships
- Iran Says It Will Create New Sanctions Zone Outside Strait of Hormuz
- White House Says Iran Naval Blockade and Economic Pressure Remain in Force
- U.S. Strikes Two Iranian State Tankers Under New Retaliation Policy
- Tanker Reports Three Projectile Strikes While Exiting Strait of Hormuz
- U.S. Forces Begin Striking IRGC Targets in Iran After Attempted Attacks
- Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at Two U.S. Bases in Jordan
- IRGC Says Supertanker Hit Two Mines and Caught Fire in Strait of Hormuz
- Jordan Says Eight Missiles Destroyed After Iran Targeted U.S. Bases
- CENTCOM Says No Ships Hit Mines in Hormuz, Rejecting IRGC Claim
- Iran Oil Minister Says Reduced Crude Deliveries Continue Despite U.S. Blockade
- U.S. Officials Say 20-30 Tankers Cross Hormuz Nightly Under Military Cover