Udi Evental

@UEvental · Israeli security analysts & ex-officials

Udi Evental is an Israeli reserve colonel and strategy and policy analyst.

Sep 9, 2026, 7:26 AM UTC
Warning, ignoring, concealment, blame-shifting: a familiar pattern. We did not need the publication about the warning provided by the UAE leader, Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ), a week and a half before October 7, in order to identify the aforementioned pattern on the eve of the disaster [see the quoted thread]. Nevertheless, a few words about this publication, whose credibility Naftali Bennett confirmed (“true”). If the MBZ warning story is accurate, two particularly serious problems emerge from it. One is the ignoring of warnings, and the other is the compartmentalization of the security establishment. As time goes by, more and more details are becoming clear about warnings, including Gaza-focused ones, that the prime minister received, contrary to his claims that he received only general warnings. As is known, the warnings came not only from external sources but also from the Israeli system, which warned him on numerous occasions of a multi-front war and, according to the investigation that was published, also of Sinwar’s intentions (see the Shin Bet). Why did Netanyahu ignore these warnings and even dismiss them live on air? This is a matter for a state commission of inquiry. It appears that the judicial overhaul Netanyahu led is closely tied to this, alongside additional reasons such as the view that Hamas was an asset, the conception in which the entire system was trapped, and more. The judicial overhaul is connected both to the erosion of deterrence, the image of weakness, and the opportunity our enemies identified in them to attack us, and to the prime minister’s strange conduct and disregard, despite his being known as someone who generally expected the worst. But, as stated, this is a matter for a state commission of inquiry. The problem is that as more details are published, the suspicion grows that the government and its head are preventing a state commission of inquiry because they have something to hide. Why did Netanyahu not update the security establishment? This too is an extremely serious matter for an inquiry, which must examine the procedures for handling information of this kind and ensure that such a case does not happen again in the future. It is possible that if such warning information, a week and a half before October 7, had reached the security establishment, it would have responded to the warning signs on the night before in a more alarmist and appropriate manner, and it is possible that the disaster would have been avoided or its scale reduced. But unfortunately, Netanyahu has a “record” of keeping the security establishment out of the loop on clear matters of national security, for example: approving the sale of F-35s to the UAE, submarines to Egypt, the annexation plan in 2020 (which ultimately was not implemented), and more. Even today Netanyahu and the political leadership are receiving clear warnings of a security disaster that could befall us in the West Bank. Jewish terrorism in the West Bank is an extremely dangerous time bomb. Yesterday we saw its severe political damage to Israel’s foreign relations and standing in the world. At the same time, the army is warning that the challenge is also a security one. After the chief of staff already warned that the army could collapse in on itself, IDF officials are now warning the political leadership (in an article by Yaniv Kubovich from the day before yesterday) that due to a shortage of manpower, the IDF will have difficulty providing security to the outposts that the government is approving in a wide distribution across the West Bank. Tying down more and more forces in the West Bank (26 battalions ahead of the holidays!) comes at the expense of routine security and the defensive arrangements on the other borders. And all of this is happening during an extremely sensitive period on the eve of elections. The problem is that not only our enemies may exploit the situation to influence the results; the government’s forceful conduct in the area, for political reasons, could also lead to deterioration and escalation. Under these conditions, we can rely only on the security establishment, which faces a tremendous challenge to preserve stability and quiet over the next two months to enable the elections to take place. Shana tova Translated from Hebrew
Sep 4, 2026, 7:20 AM UTC
One of the important projects of @MIND_ISRAEL is in the field of geotechnology. Its aim: to ensure that Israel, which has excelled as the “Startup Nation,” remains a leading global player also in the new technological era we have entered. This is really not something that can be taken for granted, and the challenges are immense. As part of the project, “MIND” launched the podcast “Tech-tonic Change,” which is a must for anyone interested in the connections between technology, security, and national strategy. Fascinating. I highly recommend it. Channel on you tube: Spotify:Translated from Hebrew
Aug 30, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
Amos Harel in Haaretz this morning: “There are those in the army who suspect that the prime minister is preparing the ground for a deliberate deterioration in the West Bank... During the prime minister’s visit to Central Command last week, senior command officials stressed the concern over losing control on the ground against the backdrop of the marked rise in the number of violent incidents initiated by the Jewish side in the West Bank, alongside the rise in the severity of the violence... It was leaked to the media that Netanyahu asked to be shown a plan for the event of a rapid security escalation in which Palestinian Authority security personnel would actively participate in the fighting against the IDF. In doing so, he introduced the possibility of the Authority’s collapse into the discourse and presented the chief of staff as someone who had not done his homework.” That is as far as the article goes. In fact, on the eve of the elections, Netanyahu is fully aligning himself with the far right in the mold of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who have openly been working since October 7 to bring down the Authority and take over Judea and Samaria [attached: a tweet from November 2023]. Along the way, Netanyahu is also weakening the IDF and the chief of staff (who is subjected to daily attacks on Channel 14), for political considerations. As the elections draw closer, the above trends are worsening. This is madness that perhaps only the United States can and should stop; otherwise we will all pay the price. And it will be heavy.”Translated from Hebrew
Aug 28, 2026, 4:19 AM UTC
During Operation Protective Edge, Israel fought to separate Secretary of State Kerry from Qatari mediation and to rely on Egypt as the mediator. Now it is becoming clear that the prime minister acted secretly behind the back of the professional echelon and the defense minister, in the opposite direction. Presumably, this is one of the reasons that caused the war to drag on (51 days).Translated from Hebrew
Aug 23, 2026, 6:56 AM UTC
Trump’s policy of economic pressure on Iran is producing results and deepening the dispute within the Iranian leadership. Nevertheless, various commentators assess that Iran “will not surrender.” What does that even mean? This is a misleading position that closes off the discussion. It is clear that Iran will not raise the white flag; we don’t need commentators for that... But between surrender or a preemptive attack on Iran, as various Iranian spokespeople, more or less official, are threatening, there is a broad space for a return to negotiations under conditions (which ones?), under the auspices of various mediators, calculated shows of force, military or nuclear, below the threshold of escalation, and more... What Iran’s conditions and moves will be is the interesting discussion, not whether it will capitulate or not? Obviously not, just as Hamas and Hezbollah will not “surrender.”Translated from Hebrew

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