Gregory Brew
@gbrew24 · Iran watchers, nuclear experts & opposition
Gregory Brew is a senior Iran and oil analyst at Eurasia Group and the author of The Struggle for Iran.
Araghchi just spoke to the Saudi FM and Pakistani chief of staff Munir in rapid succession. Have to imagine both calls are tied to evolving situation in Yemen, where Iran's Houthi allies have made rapid gains. https://t.co/5DnZ5w76yS
I'm honestly not sure my brain could handle an Iranian move to exit the NPT, that would be one thing too many.
Iran is doing precisely what it did after the June 2025 war: it is rebuilding its ballistic missile program. https://t.co/kLn1AZGI52
Iranian production at 2m bpd constitutes a decline of 1.2m bpd. While largely a deliberate move, as export capacity shrinks to nearly nothing due to the US blockade, it means output has fallen below domestic consumption (2.2-2.23m bpd). If sustained, it would suggest Iran may be facing more serious issues at the wellhead. Worth monitoring.
Some major Houthi advances in the last 24 hours, which have not only reversed the gains of Saudi-backed forces but also gained the group new territory closer to the Bab al-Mandeb.
Nine aircraft damaged, one severely, by the Iranian missile barrage on the base in Jordan last night.
Possible the Houthis are gaining the upper hand on the battlefield in Yemen thanks to an AI-generated deep fake.
Publicly, the White House is confident that the US is winning, and that Iran is on the verge of collapsing. Privately, Trump's advisors are preparing themselves for the war to last through the rest of his term--based on the assumption that Iran resists economic pressure indefinitely. https://t.co/kcLaizzSUW
Iranian source quoted here makes it clear regime isn't considering any concessions in the face of US pressure. Iran will continue to intensify retaliations against US attacks. The implication is that Iranian doctrine remains essentially reactive, rather than escalatory (at least for now). https://t.co/NBtRV6MUEH
CENTCOM has acknowledged twice now that Iran has attempted to strike US warships--and that each time, Iranian tankers have been attacked in response. There is no available information to suggest that any of Iran's attacks on US ships have been successful.
The IRGC claims to have targeted and inflicted "significant damage" on a pair of US warships in the Gulf of Oman: DDG-119 USS Delbert D. Black and DDG-53 USS John Paul Jones, both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. To be sure, Iran has made claims like this in the past--though this one seems oddly specific.
The US disables Iran's oil tankers, which it cannot presently use due to the blockade; Iran fires at US bases in Jordan, the utility of which grows more uncertain by the day. The US gradually pushed Iran's economy toward calamity; Iran gradually pushes the global oil market closer to proper shortage; neither knows when it will be accomplished. Iran's leaders speak of the struggle as though it will go on forever; the US, as though it had ended months ago. Hormuz is not open; nor is it shut. The two sides know they do not want a return to full war; they do not have any clear idea of how to obtain peace.
Iran media reporting explosions heard near Kharg and Jask--possibly more US strikes on Iranian tankers anchored there. Notably, Iran mil spox saying that any attacks on tankers will prompt retaliation against US bases.
Iran threatening US military bases if Iranian oil tankers are targeted. Unconfirmed reports that US carried out more strikes on tankers near Kharg today.
US-Iran MOU negotiations, June 2026 https://t.co/AGEVsOLqqc
OFAC sanctioning 27 Iranian airlines and several UAE and Turkish individuals, as "Operation Economic Outcast" rolls on. https://t.co/7DAhbUCvFy
US success in Hormuz may be offset by worsening supply conditions in the Red Sea and Black Sea. Latest data shows a potential recovery in Chinese seaborne import demand. Inventories are far lower than they were in April-May, and while there is supply left in SPRs, a second large-scale release would leave OECD nations with virtually no buffer to weather a renewed disruption in 2027. The numbers are a bit better for the US than they were a few months ago, but it's not a full turnaround. The car is still driving toward the cliff.
Great thread from @ZiadMDaoud on where things stand re: oil and the Iran war.
Trump acknowledges 1) oil prices are high, 2) it's because of the war with Iran, 3) the war has not ended, 4) the US has not won, yet. https://t.co/gcsfqYmu0E
I never bought the "Iranians will escalate aggressively" argument that started to gain traction about a month ago, once flows in Hormuz began ticking up. On the one hand, they're likely deterred from serious escalation by the damage they would come from another major round of fighting. But on the other hand, they may still see time ultimately working in their favor--a partial opening of Hormuz eases the pressure on Trump but does not eliminate it entirely. The attritional strategy that they've stuck to all year may yet prove effective--even if the cost is a protracted economic crisis that raises the risk of serious internal unrest.
Should be clear, I'm not dismissing the possibility there are protests--the govt remains deeply unpopular, the war and blockade has added to the dismal state of the economy, and more expensive gasoline will be yet another burden for Iranian consumers. Just that the environment has some notable differences from 2019, to the point that I'm wary of making the direct comparison.
Iran's government is moving forward with gasoline subsidy reform, increasing the price at the pump for gasoline bought in excess of mandated quotas. Due to the US blockade, Iran faces a shortfall of about 10% in its domestic supply, as consumption has historically run ahead of domestic fuel output. Normally this would be met with imports. But now Iran faces a deficit that will have to made up through lower consumption. Raising prices is the easiest way to curb consumption. The move is certain to be controversial (it's is already drawing criticism), and may inspire protests, as was the case in 2019, the last time the govt tried subsidy reform. However, wartime conditions, a securitized environment, the fresh memory of the protests last January, and the fact that security services are likely ready for unrest make this a very different environment from 2019. Tbh if anyone protests, it will likely be hardline opponents of the president, using this issue as a way to undermine his position (something that also happened in 2019!).
Afaik, this is the first time a senior leadership official has openly admitted the US is having success moving more ships through the strait. Rezaee says the ships are attacked as they proceed, but he does not say they are stopped or sunk.
Rezaee today in an interview for state media: -Hormuz is closed...a maximum of 7-8 ships pass through the strait, of which 5-6 are importing essential goods for us. -Sometimes the Americans escort 5-6 ships from the coast connected to Oman. -We are still exporting oil and earning money. -An agreement on joint management of the strait will be signed in coming days (note: they've said this many times over the last month).
Only successful attacks reported by JMIC were US strikes on Iranian tankers yesterday. Agency once again notes discrepancy between third party trackers and the US navy, which sees transits averaging 20 daily. https://t.co/DoEbnLcbXB https://t.co/K0wbhJyB66
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